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I agree. Looks like we need another micro level 4-5. 

 NDX did not make a lower low while SPX did today. NDX has been relative strength during this drop from mid September. 

I think things will get really nasty once NDX starts leading. B ut it can't lead until AAPL and TSLA finally crack. They have a long way to drop to their June lows. 

I was actually asking about the larger wave 4 recovery after this small 4-5 is done. 

Matt / Steve what do

Posted by mirhamedali on 27th of Sep 2022 at 04:43 pm

Matt / Steve what do you guys think about a wave four here that looks similar to the late Septmeber 4 day move up?

There was a Denmark 9 right before that move similar to what we have now. 

I am wondering if we get a symmetrical wave 4 to that wave 2.

Just barely. Look out below

Bitcoin

Posted by mirhamedali on 26th of Sep 2022 at 09:18 pm

Just barely. Look out below when this support breaks. 

Out of the big tech

TSLA Views

Posted by mirhamedali on 25th of Sep 2022 at 05:30 pm

Out of the big tech Tsla has the most to drop. This could be big 

Hi Matt - would you

SPX chart back to 1974

Posted by mirhamedali on 25th of Sep 2022 at 05:01 pm

Hi Matt - would you be able to share the chart link for this one please?

Stocks above 50 and above

% Stocks above 20 day SMA

Posted by mirhamedali on 17th of Sep 2022 at 06:49 pm

Stocks above 50 and above 200 did take out sep lows however. Fwiw.

ARKK, BTCC, Cloud and Cyber

Posted by mirhamedali on 16th of Sep 2022 at 10:12 pm

ARKK, BTCC, Cloud and Cyber Security stocks have all still not broken their September lows.  Positive divergence??

Sentiment seems to have LOTS

Posted by mirhamedali on 16th of Sep 2022 at 08:48 pm

Sentiment seems to have LOTS of room to fall before it gets extreme

Matt / Steve do know what day the new AAII surveys come out?  Is that over the weekend?

It's so weird seeing the

Posted by mirhamedali on 16th of Sep 2022 at 08:21 pm

It's so weird seeing the entire CNBC panel so bearish.  None of them even blinked when Carter said target = low 2000s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0V334TtgNQ&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision


Do you think that we

Posted by mirhamedali on 15th of Sep 2022 at 12:03 pm

Do you think that we were just in micro wave 4 yesterday and this drop is wave 5?

If so then wave 2 can still happen (next happen).

Before that we do have a couple of gaps to close below (in the NDX)

I agree. Also looking for a 50 to 61.8% retrace here to open next tranche of shorts 

Looks like 5 micro waves

Posted by mirhamedali on 14th of Sep 2022 at 11:59 am

Looks like 5 micro waves of wave [1] are done.  If we get a big A-B-C like I have drawn out then the next wave [3] down will be epic!  
I think we move up in the form a small inverted head and shoulders. Kobie's favorite pattern ;-) 

The challenge is that you don't know when the wave three will end because they have a tendency to extend. You also want to let winners run a bit. So I typically wait for a wave four and then exit as soon as we pop into wave five. I don't milk the wave five at all. The other challenge is that sometimes we get a truncated wave five.  The best solution is to take profits as you go especially when wave three is extending. 

I agree Matt. The market has a fractal nature. Looking at past patterns help provide some guidance. It's simply one tool of many. It's not necessarily predictive but some help lay out possible road maps. 

I REALLY hope we get

Bearish Mapping Wave 3

Posted by mirhamedali on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:00 pm

I REALLY hope we get that wave 2 Steve. Would love to load up on some options! 

This island top looks really

Posted by mirhamedali on 13th of Sep 2022 at 12:29 pm

This island top looks really ominous.  Seems to be the perfect way for the market to start wave 3 down to new lows.

Just waiting on confirmation now.  Need to see if we get 5 micro waves down, followed corrective A-B-C , followed by the plunge to new lows 

Things look impulsive to the downside so far.  

she looks ready to break

GOOG Weekly 

Posted by mirhamedali on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:44 am

she looks ready to break - good chart 

@tmbrook1, here is the example you requested

This is on QQQ.  First image is a normal Bear Put Spread, 2nd one adds a  385 Call which is just $0.21, so its dirt cheap insurance in case the market moves against me.  Even if the market goes up 10% my loss is almost zero.

But as you can see the insurance starts losing some juice after about a month, but its best practice to exit spreads early (at around 50% of max profit).

As an advanced tactic, if the market moves against you then you can sell that OTM call if you feel the market will come back in your favor thus banking some profit in the interim.

I agree. I think bears are really getting squeezed here.

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