On Chicago wheat, I would expect a path similar to that of
December of last year leading towards the ultimate low. Screenshots
from Dec 2022 and May 2023 are attached.
Thanks. I foresee a possibility of indexes adjusting lower
instead of bond prices adjusting higher, essentially a reversal of
the discrepancy that occurred in December of last year. Back then
one month worth of move on bonds went unnoticed.
1950-5 support on gold futures has been defended, and it held.
Based on inside information, that is the current floor for
gold prices. Any test of that level is a low risk buy. Gold is
oversold short term.
Any drop on the indexes is met with buying gold. I look into the
week of June 5 for a likely low in gold prices.
Grains are higher today. Soft red wheat (Chicago wheat) is
posting a key reversal today. I expect this push higher to fail
eventually, and a lower low to be posted. Today's low undercut the
previous low, and a reversal happened overnight.
Edit: moving averages are pointing lower, so rallies should be
sold.
Gold does not rise because more money has been printed. Gold
does not rise when confidence in USD is present as a store of
value. Rising inflation will change that!
The difference is due to international buyers of debt. High
yield on USD attracts international buyers. With gold, the dynamic
is the opposite: Western Central Bank need to buy gold even more
than the rest of the world. Are they buying it yet? That is the
question. They are not selling because they have already sold
everything they could.
arun, The stock market has nothing to do with the economy. Buy
the rumor, sell the news on the debt ceiling. The move up has been
corrective. A running flat is still a corrective move. PSAR
trailing stop is at 13368-ish. I expect it to be approached next
week. 13407 to 13382 is the support that must hold on /NQ.
I am not good at playing the musical chairs near the top. I
prefer to gobble at the bottom on sale. Good luck to you!
mundy, selling premium is inherently risky. The bottom line is
either 50% of the credit received (about $160 per spread) in 2
months is either worth the trouble of holding a position or
not.
regarding setups. I do not trade them for similar reasons as
stated. In addition, I would like a setup to be confirmed by a
momentum indicator similar to SPY systems, as I cannot watch them
during the day. A squeeze indicator should be of help here,
yet I am not an expert on its use yet.
To be actionable, setups ought to be vetted by internals in
addition to looking right. If one can watch them during the day,
this is not necessary, of course. Most of people posting here
cannot afford that luxury, in my humble opinion. This is not a
criticism of the idea or the way others do it.
I know of the argument against holding to expiration for 0DTE.
The last week may add almost nothing to the credit owing but will
hog up the margin. It is a very good argument against doing
that.
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Symmetry to the upside was
Grains are higher today. Soft red wheat (Chicago wheat) is ...
Posted by junkie on 23rd of May 2023 at 11:48 am
Symmetry to the upside was broken today. 622 on the front month contract is the key resistance before moving higher.
On Chicago wheat, I would
Grains are higher today. Soft red wheat (Chicago wheat) is ...
Posted by junkie on 23rd of May 2023 at 11:25 am
On Chicago wheat, I would expect a path similar to that of December of last year leading towards the ultimate low. Screenshots from Dec 2022 and May 2023 are attached.
Thanks. I foresee a possibility
DXY 2 hour - negative divergences setting up as we ...
Posted by junkie on 23rd of May 2023 at 11:02 am
Thanks. I foresee a possibility of indexes adjusting lower instead of bond prices adjusting higher, essentially a reversal of the discrepancy that occurred in December of last year. Back then one month worth of move on bonds went unnoticed.
DigiNomad, what is your outlook
DXY 2 hour - negative divergences setting up as we ...
Posted by junkie on 23rd of May 2023 at 10:38 am
DigiNomad, what is your outlook for bonds?
1950-5 support on gold futures
Posted by junkie on 23rd of May 2023 at 10:32 am
1950-5 support on gold futures has been defended, and it held. Based on inside information, that is the current floor for gold prices. Any test of that level is a low risk buy. Gold is oversold short term.
Any drop on the indexes is met with buying gold. I look into the week of June 5 for a likely low in gold prices.
Grains are higher today. Soft
Posted by junkie on 23rd of May 2023 at 10:11 am
Grains are higher today. Soft red wheat (Chicago wheat) is posting a key reversal today. I expect this push higher to fail eventually, and a lower low to be posted. Today's low undercut the previous low, and a reversal happened overnight.
Edit: moving averages are pointing lower, so rallies should be sold.
According to Gregory Mannarino, it
The Nik dropped about 1% round midnight EDT and seems ...
Posted by junkie on 23rd of May 2023 at 07:14 am
According to Gregory Mannarino, it is due to a global bond market selloff. He has that if this keeps going, it's over (a video on youtube).
This looks to me like
SPX 15 min
Posted by junkie on 22nd of May 2023 at 03:42 pm
This looks to me like wave 4 consolidation. A bearish resolution to it will entails only 3 waves up.
Very long-term fundamental analysis of gold by
Posted by junkie on 21st of May 2023 at 06:04 pm
Very long-term fundamental analysis of gold by Andrew Maguire.
Matt should code Steve vacation
Steve should go on vacation more often
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 04:25 pm
Matt should code Steve vacation indicator in Tradestation and put it on his charts, too :-) LoL.
rp, /GC short could last
all i want is more down on gold and gdx ...
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 04:10 pm
rp, /GC short could last for another day based on a trade short.
Gold does not rise because
NQ futures 52 week high...Bears convinced yet ?
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 03:14 pm
Gold does not rise because more money has been printed. Gold does not rise when confidence in USD is present as a store of value. Rising inflation will change that!
The difference is due to
NQ futures 52 week high...Bears convinced yet ?
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 02:57 pm
The difference is due to international buyers of debt. High yield on USD attracts international buyers. With gold, the dynamic is the opposite: Western Central Bank need to buy gold even more than the rest of the world. Are they buying it yet? That is the question. They are not selling because they have already sold everything they could.
The correlation between the dollar
NQ futures 52 week high...Bears convinced yet ?
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 02:04 pm
The correlation between the dollar and gold does not work any more since 1/1/23, at least. Paper gold ended on that date. It is a short squeeze since.
Edi: /GC holds above $1950 because Central banks are buying on dips. All of them. So far only Central banks.
arun, The stock market has
NQ futures 52 week high...Bears convinced yet ?
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 12:05 pm
arun, The stock market has nothing to do with the economy. Buy the rumor, sell the news on the debt ceiling. The move up has been corrective. A running flat is still a corrective move. PSAR trailing stop is at 13368-ish. I expect it to be approached next week. 13407 to 13382 is the support that must hold on /NQ.
I am not good at playing the musical chairs near the top. I prefer to gobble at the bottom on sale. Good luck to you!
There is no point to
NQ futures 52 week high...Bears convinced yet ?
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 11:47 am
There is no point to stand in front of a freight train. /NQ target is about 14,000. I am trailing my stop.
Edit: /NQ will gap down on Monday erasing all the gains straight from the manipulation playbook used in early February. Fool me once..
/GC lost its ledge support
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 07:16 am
/GC lost its ledge support at 1980. 1950 is the target to cover shorts and to buy for a bounce.
mundy, selling premium is inherently
DigiNomad, I bought $SPX Jul 21 4400/4425 Bear CS on ...
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 01:21 am
mundy, selling premium is inherently risky. The bottom line is either 50% of the credit received (about $160 per spread) in 2 months is either worth the trouble of holding a position or not.
regarding setups. I do not
NEWR Kaboom! you guys aren't trading the setups!
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 01:18 am
regarding setups. I do not trade them for similar reasons as stated. In addition, I would like a setup to be confirmed by a momentum indicator similar to SPY systems, as I cannot watch them during the day. A squeeze indicator should be of help here, yet I am not an expert on its use yet.
To be actionable, setups ought to be vetted by internals in addition to looking right. If one can watch them during the day, this is not necessary, of course. Most of people posting here cannot afford that luxury, in my humble opinion. This is not a criticism of the idea or the way others do it.
I know of the argument
DigiNomad, I bought $SPX Jul 21 4400/4425 Bear CS on ...
Posted by junkie on 17th of May 2023 at 05:00 pm
I know of the argument against holding to expiration for 0DTE. The last week may add almost nothing to the credit owing but will hog up the margin. It is a very good argument against doing that.