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Matt, could you add a chart of SPX with TLT plotted on the same pane for swift comparison in your newsletter,  please?

this looks like a bear

SPX 15

Posted by junkie on 17th of Feb 2023 at 04:07 pm

this looks like a bear flag, a continuation pattern.

SPX is in the middle of the range. Retesting 4100 will give you 1% gains from here and a chance to reverse to a short position. I would hold a short till Matt's subsystem official closes its short.

30-year bond futures put a top on 2/3 and have been dropping since.  Coincidentally, that was the day when /ES futures put the highest price. The correlation is amazing, and I am adding a daily chart of /ZB to my multiple-time frame workspace in TradeStation as the guide on the future direction of the /ES.  

The histogram on number of

Posted by junkie on 14th of Feb 2023 at 05:48 pm

The histogram on number of high minus lows on /NQ is becoming negative, suggesting a drop ahead:$COMPQ&p=D&st=2021-04-01&id=p46904746960&a=1138588728&listNum=27  Yet, /NQ outperforms /ES for the time being.

DigiNomad. agreed. I should have said 'put spreads' instead of puts to control max losses.

Selling 0DTE puts brings awesome gains!

rp, the seasonal trend for the OpEx week in February is a high on Wednesday, and a drop into Friday. Brokers had to buy futures to offset calls bought by their clients. When calls expire, future long positions will be unwound. I concur with your observations.

you cannot fight central banks with their unlimited liquidity, deployed on demand and undeployed shortly after.

that would be a hell of an extreme to the upside, which will cleanse all short holders. At that point, everyone will have already bought, and no one will be left to buy higher.

icecoldjones, professionals are not bullish above 4140ish level, which is a fair price of this market. 4180 at most or about 13000 on /NQ. Above those levels they will sell short. Watching the debt market is the key. When bond yields begin to drop, all apparent bullishness will vanish. Remember that professionals trade supply and demand levels, not chart patterns.

You could liken this market to a house of card, which barely stands put. A puff of wind and down it goes.

Matt, is /ES no longer

SPY bear long

Posted by junkie on 10th of Feb 2023 at 04:06 pm

Matt, is /ES no longer triggering either? The best trades are those where only one side (SPY or ES) has triggered :-)

It looks like a triple bottom (inverse head and shoulders bottom) intraday) is being formed on 30-minute charts. We may close the day unchanged if that played out.

fredsaid, we may get a good bounce into Monday and then more downside to follow below 4060!

Hi Matt, could you please

KISS charts SPX and QQQ

Posted by junkie on 9th of Feb 2023 at 04:08 pm

Hi Matt, could you please quantify "how wide that MA ribbon was " when you get a chance? Thanks in advance!

Edit: replace EMA(18) and EMA(40) with EMA(9) & EMA(18). I confused the colors on that chart.

I am curious about your

SPX 30

Posted by junkie on 9th of Feb 2023 at 03:44 pm

I am curious about your market review tonight, Steve!

From the volume graph, the next volume spike on /NQ is about 400 points lower at 12150, which is close to EMA(18) and EMA(21). That's probably about 20 /ES points lower.  That channel may not last into tomorrow.

Thanks for that tip, Steve! I was looking for a good pattern to sell it but could not pull the trigger. I will remember that a lower high with a flat EMA(18) or even EMA(40) and flat Bollinger Band is a good trigger with good risk to reward ratio.

It is a shame that

ES 4090 backtesting the JP breakout 

Posted by junkie on 9th of Feb 2023 at 03:20 pm

It is a shame that it has lasted over a week to undo that spike!

I vote for 4050, the level before the Fed Chairman Powell started speaking after the FOMC!


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