Posted by jtsurfah on 27th of May 2022 at 01:19 pm
SPX short - Added a second batch just now (using
XSP....same same but smaller scale).. 1st time was when 16
delta July calls matched the 61.8 fib. Today I added when 16 delta
July calls matched the 78.6 fib.
Posted by jtsurfah on 24th of May 2022 at 04:43 pm
19 PE is suspect also considering they lost money on the
quarter. But I just take the numbers on my platform for granted
until I get really serious about a company. In that case, I
would dig in and figure out the real valuation.
Posted by jtsurfah on 24th of May 2022 at 04:37 pm
Buy back is nice (don't say it too loud and risk attracting Liz
Warrens ire), but I kind of picture them saying it with a pinkie to
their lips, Dr. Evil style. I have them at an almost 19 PE (18.8),
which is still nose bleed territory for retailers, historically
speaking.
Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 04:47 pm
Matt or Steve will probably discuss it tonight but I think Matt
was describing a possible divergence which would potentially result
in a positive move for SPX and a negative move for the VIX. Sounds
like he was referring to a daily time frame.
Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 03:36 pm
"not budging" means staying in short term strong uptrend? Trying
to square this with VVIX signal above 110 that Matt pointed
out. VIX looks like it's filling an open gap to me, but the VVIX
signal is concerning (but I don't know the mechanics of the VVIX
indicator all that well)
Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 12:09 pm
TSLA - anyone else seeing an objective short on the 30 min
chart? I was so mad when they put this in the S&P. Big fan but
the valuation is/was nonsense. With its size in a cap weighted
index, is it possible it doesn't take down the index if it goes
down? (my target is 505 ish)
Posted by jtsurfah on 10th of May 2022 at 11:17 am
PTON - I still have people asking me to buy this one for them.
I have declined since day 1, and had no regrets even
when it was going up every day, but fans will be fans..
Anyone selling upside calls on SPY, SPX, XSP, etc? What
strikes are you selling?I typically like to sell 45 days to
expiration, 16 delta (or less...but it's tough here because the
fibs set up to touch those levels on a decent bounce.
Bonds are too. I was looking a friends 401K options last
week and was surprised to find that the "stable value" fund in his
list of options was returning around 2%. That's not "stable" in a
8% inflationary world, but it's better than losing capital (on top
of debasing what you have left).
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
SPX dumping after hours
Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jun 2022 at 04:11 pm
SPX dumping after hours
VIX dumping hard but coming
Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jun 2022 at 01:22 pm
VIX dumping hard but coming into support
VIX suggesting the double bottom
Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jun 2022 at 01:13 pm
VIX suggesting the double bottom on the SPX 3 minute might hold?
Oops...you beat me to it.
SPX 10 min
Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jun 2022 at 12:04 pm
Oops...you beat me to it. Sorry
SPX 15 min - approaching
Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jun 2022 at 12:03 pm
SPX 15 min - approaching the bottom of the channel
SPX short - Added a
Posted by jtsurfah on 27th of May 2022 at 01:19 pm
SPX short - Added a second batch just now (using XSP....same same but smaller scale).. 1st time was when 16 delta July calls matched the 61.8 fib. Today I added when 16 delta July calls matched the 78.6 fib.
19 PE is suspect also
JWN - a retailer that is gapping up
Posted by jtsurfah on 24th of May 2022 at 04:43 pm
19 PE is suspect also considering they lost money on the quarter. But I just take the numbers on my platform for granted until I get really serious about a company. In that case, I would dig in and figure out the real valuation.
Buy back is nice (don't
JWN - a retailer that is gapping up
Posted by jtsurfah on 24th of May 2022 at 04:37 pm
Buy back is nice (don't say it too loud and risk attracting Liz Warrens ire), but I kind of picture them saying it with a pinkie to their lips, Dr. Evil style. I have them at an almost 19 PE (18.8), which is still nose bleed territory for retailers, historically speaking.
Beat on the top line.
JWN - a retailer that is gapping up
Posted by jtsurfah on 24th of May 2022 at 04:13 pm
Beat on the top line. Shocker. Inflation spikes prices so top line expands even with flat unit sales. Suspect.
Matt or Steve will probably
VIX Updated Views
Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 04:47 pm
Matt or Steve will probably discuss it tonight but I think Matt was describing a possible divergence which would potentially result in a positive move for SPX and a negative move for the VIX. Sounds like he was referring to a daily time frame.
Wow. Kind of huge on
TSLA out of S&P 500
Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 03:51 pm
Wow. Kind of huge on a couple levels....but for now with TSLA at a 96 PE and AAPL at a 23 PE, I don't see valuation support for the broader market.
"not budging" means staying in
VIX Updated Views
Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 03:36 pm
"not budging" means staying in short term strong uptrend? Trying to square this with VVIX signal above 110 that Matt pointed out. VIX looks like it's filling an open gap to me, but the VVIX signal is concerning (but I don't know the mechanics of the VVIX indicator all that well)
TSLA - anyone else seeing
Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 12:09 pm
TSLA - anyone else seeing an objective short on the 30 min chart? I was so mad when they put this in the S&P. Big fan but the valuation is/was nonsense. With its size in a cap weighted index, is it possible it doesn't take down the index if it goes down? (my target is 505 ish)
FWIW, tomorrow is full moon and Friday the 13th. CORRECTION ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 12th of May 2022 at 04:08 pm
PTON - I still have
PTON weekly
Posted by jtsurfah on 10th of May 2022 at 11:17 am
PTON - I still have people asking me to buy this one for them. I have declined since day 1, and had no regrets even when it was going up every day, but fans will be fans..
Anyone selling upside calls on
Posted by jtsurfah on 9th of May 2022 at 01:31 pm
Anyone selling upside calls on SPY, SPX, XSP, etc? What strikes are you selling?I typically like to sell 45 days to expiration, 16 delta (or less...but it's tough here because the fibs set up to touch those levels on a decent bounce.
Morton7 speaking for the rich
TLT ... This thing trades like a tech stock .... ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 5th of May 2022 at 03:46 pm
Morton7 speaking for the rich guys. He's fired
Is there an ETF for
Commodities slightly positive today with the USD impact stripped out ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 5th of May 2022 at 12:52 pm
Is there an ETF for commodities exposure in foreign currency terms?
Commodities slightly positive today with
Posted by jtsurfah on 5th of May 2022 at 12:46 pm
Commodities slightly positive today with the USD impact stripped out (PDBC or DBC vs UUP)
Bonds are too. I was
It's pretty slim pickings out there ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 3rd of May 2022 at 11:32 am
Bonds are too. I was looking a friends 401K options last week and was surprised to find that the "stable value" fund in his list of options was returning around 2%. That's not "stable" in a 8% inflationary world, but it's better than losing capital (on top of debasing what you have left).