why do they have to be unexpected acts of God? why can't they be
unexpected acts of men with enough power and influence to make
significat impact upon lives and finances of other men, changing
what they (the lesser ones) perceived as the progression path
for their futures.
How is that perception of lesser men regarding their financial
future different from their perception of a house they built to
remain safe, only for a tidal wave to destroy it?
I think attributing drastic, calamitous effect of the unexpect
to only nature and God is a narrow way of evaluating events that
effect our world.
Why would not an attack on Georgia by Russia be a black swan, it
changed lives of many, it finished lives of many, it may have
already changesd some balance of power, and through that, our lives
too.
If you expected that, well good for you! For me it was as black
a swan as black can be
i like it to make a divergent low, for 5 wave down to be
complete, that is, if 5th wave does not extend itself, according to
the count I am keeping, 3rd wave's already extended, so 5th wave
should not extend, I agree with 300 , maybe overshoot 280 or so for
5 = 1.618 * 1, and the bombardment should cease.
My counts have been wrong before, so keep that in mind
of course there is enough gold and silver, paper gold and
silver, that is. Just take a look at prospectus for GLD or SLV,
they owe nobody anything, they are not even subject to any third
party audits. Mybe they are fully backed by billion maybe not.
Maybe I didn't understand the prospectus right.
They, however, are great instruments of market price control.
And then we have the future market -- a world full of
promises of future, and short of commitments of today. It sounds
like business as usual alright, am I missing the point?
I know bullion banks are active in future markets, shorting
metal not recorded anywhere, but that still is a promise of
delivery.
If what is circulating is true, and the actual demand
outstripping supply is really correct, it is a front runner ahead
of strong south asian demand season for gold. Again, if (BIG WORD)
that is the case, matt's COT data should point to a seasonal low
for commercial shorts, and we shall see a bounce.
On Friday, I called a dealer and asked for 5 one-ounce swiss
gold bars, he had no problem accomodating me, we negotiated the
price, and that was that. That was Friday, which seems like an
eternity ago.
BTW, I am also a CEF investor (not trader) because they are
subject to third party audit, and I could understand their
propectus
what has kept me wary, and away from expanding my
meagre short position is the fact that I hear everywhere
people talking how they plan to short SPX 1320, and many
places are talking turn dates 2nd half of august - crowded
I just think that it is possible that that shorting becomes a
bear trap, and we see a final push higher than SPX 1320, and an
upside resolution to the traingle that XLF is making on a daily
chart, setting a negative divergence and a new high, a squeeze of
late shorts, and we go our merry way down.
Yes, I agree with you that it looks so much like the 70s, only
the scale is bigger, a perfect Deja Vu, or maybe too perfect a Deja
Vu?
I would like to see technical evidence of a resumption of the
uptrend in commodities, Oil, I believe is the key to that door
with unlimited capital, it might be easy to ride out storms, for
mere mortals like me, that is not an option, I'll go underground
and wait for the gale to stop howling. It's a balancing act,
and so different from one individual case to anothe
Coxe is a fundamentalist at macro level. I am an avid follower
of his opinions and publications. Hell, the amount of money he has
made me by turning me on to commodities makes me speechless.
Not only that 5% of my retirement account is invested in the
fund he manages, and if this commodity correction/crash/whatever
drags, I will invest another batch with fresh savings. I cannot put
in words admiration I have for the man, for his honesty, knowledge,
analytical skill, and clarity of thoughts and writing
But, he is a macro level fundamentalist.
I listened to the conference (I always do), notice he said he
could not have expected the melting of gold. Notice he said he
could not have expected such drastic measures taken by the FED and
Treasury, because they are unprecented. Notice he mentions the
hedge fund deleveraging of short finance long gold trade.
In his publication, Basic Points, he laments the possiblity of a
Fannie Freddie paper deal between the US and Russia, with
guarantees in place -- now, if true, who could have expected
that?
that is the thing with macro-level fundamentals, they evolve
over macro level time frames, and along the way things, unexpected
things may happen that might change them.
Coxe, in one of his conferences, talked about a book called
Black Swan by Nasim Nicholas Taleb, black swans happen, no one can
see them, but following the charts may help us sidestep them.
I noticed something very bizarre, if I choose
"Fill The Chart" as my chart setting, i see a very
different picture from when I set a specific Period to cover what
"Fill The Chart"covers
here are two charts to show what I mean, what am I missing here?
if the count is right, we are finishing up the 5th wave of a
whopper of an a wave correction, so as long as the 5th wave does
not extend itself, we are likely to finish this soon, which will
make me sad -- it was a hell of a short
not in my experience, as long as I can count impulse and
correction as per guidlines, it's all the same to me. BUT, I ain't
no guru, so take my count with a good dose of suspicion
I did an elliott wave of g.to (GG in canada) and got to a cycle
1 top, one of my shorts, a bounce may be close, but I doubt we have
seen the end, if you want a chart, let me know
BTW, same count foe AEM, which was even weaker since had what
looked like 5th wave failure.
sorry matt, I did not mean to intrude, I am also interested in
your take
when was the last time, GS had back to back quarters of trading
losses, they are masters of trading, and they control the short
term market, and they have access to crap outlets -- ahem, media I
mean
If your thinking about buying it
you better do it soon, it looks like it wants higher prices and the
technicals are turning up. Just put a stop somewhere that you
feel is as much pain as you can take.
"
I was asked you weather it was
you or not, did not mean any offense
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why do they have to
gold
Posted by googool on 17th of Aug 2008 at 04:30 pm
why do they have to be unexpected acts of God? why can't they be unexpected acts of men with enough power and influence to make significat impact upon lives and finances of other men, changing what they (the lesser ones) perceived as the progression path for their futures.
How is that perception of lesser men regarding their financial future different from their perception of a house they built to remain safe, only for a tidal wave to destroy it?
I think attributing drastic, calamitous effect of the unexpect to only nature and God is a narrow way of evaluating events that effect our world.
Why would not an attack on Georgia by Russia be a black swan, it changed lives of many, it finished lives of many, it may have already changesd some balance of power, and through that, our lives too.
If you expected that, well good for you! For me it was as black a swan as black can be
as long as it makes
HUI
Posted by googool on 17th of Aug 2008 at 04:07 pm
as long as it makes me money on balance, I am happy with it
HUI
HUI
Posted by googool on 17th of Aug 2008 at 02:03 pm
i like it to make a divergent low, for 5 wave down to be complete, that is, if 5th wave does not extend itself, according to the count I am keeping, 3rd wave's already extended, so 5th wave should not extend, I agree with 300 , maybe overshoot 280 or so for 5 = 1.618 * 1, and the bombardment should cease.
My counts have been wrong before, so keep that in mind
of course there is enough
SLV
Posted by googool on 17th of Aug 2008 at 12:37 pm
of course there is enough gold and silver, paper gold and silver, that is. Just take a look at prospectus for GLD or SLV, they owe nobody anything, they are not even subject to any third party audits. Mybe they are fully backed by billion maybe not. Maybe I didn't understand the prospectus right.
They, however, are great instruments of market price control. And then we have the future market -- a world full of promises of future, and short of commitments of today. It sounds like business as usual alright, am I missing the point?
I know bullion banks are active in future markets, shorting metal not recorded anywhere, but that still is a promise of delivery.
If what is circulating is true, and the actual demand outstripping supply is really correct, it is a front runner ahead of strong south asian demand season for gold. Again, if (BIG WORD) that is the case, matt's COT data should point to a seasonal low for commercial shorts, and we shall see a bounce.
On Friday, I called a dealer and asked for 5 one-ounce swiss gold bars, he had no problem accomodating me, we negotiated the price, and that was that. That was Friday, which seems like an eternity ago.
BTW, I am also a CEF investor (not trader) because they are subject to third party audit, and I could understand their propectus
what has kept me wary,
XLF
Posted by googool on 16th of Aug 2008 at 01:57 pm
what has kept me wary, and away from expanding my meagre short position is the fact that I hear everywhere people talking how they plan to short SPX 1320, and many places are talking turn dates 2nd half of august - crowded
I just think that it is possible that that shorting becomes a bear trap, and we see a final push higher than SPX 1320, and an upside resolution to the traingle that XLF is making on a daily chart, setting a negative divergence and a new high, a squeeze of late shorts, and we go our merry way down.
Yes, I agree with you
gold
Posted by googool on 16th of Aug 2008 at 11:13 am
Yes, I agree with you that it looks so much like the 70s, only the scale is bigger, a perfect Deja Vu, or maybe too perfect a Deja Vu?
I would like to see technical evidence of a resumption of the uptrend in commodities, Oil, I believe is the key to that door
with unlimited capital, it might be easy to ride out storms, for mere mortals like me, that is not an option, I'll go underground and wait for the gale to stop howling. It's a balancing act, and so different from one individual case to anothe
Coxe is a fundamentalist at
gold
Posted by googool on 16th of Aug 2008 at 10:38 am
Coxe is a fundamentalist at macro level. I am an avid follower of his opinions and publications. Hell, the amount of money he has made me by turning me on to commodities makes me speechless.
Not only that 5% of my retirement account is invested in the fund he manages, and if this commodity correction/crash/whatever drags, I will invest another batch with fresh savings. I cannot put in words admiration I have for the man, for his honesty, knowledge, analytical skill, and clarity of thoughts and writing
But, he is a macro level fundamentalist.
I listened to the conference (I always do), notice he said he could not have expected the melting of gold. Notice he said he could not have expected such drastic measures taken by the FED and Treasury, because they are unprecented. Notice he mentions the hedge fund deleveraging of short finance long gold trade.
In his publication, Basic Points, he laments the possiblity of a Fannie Freddie paper deal between the US and Russia, with guarantees in place -- now, if true, who could have expected that?
that is the thing with macro-level fundamentals, they evolve over macro level time frames, and along the way things, unexpected things may happen that might change them.
Coxe, in one of his conferences, talked about a book called Black Swan by Nasim Nicholas Taleb, black swans happen, no one can see them, but following the charts may help us sidestep them.
Renko
Renl and Stockcharts anomaly
Posted by googool on 16th of Aug 2008 at 10:26 am
I made a typo in the title, I meant to write Renko, but lack of caffeine prevailed
Renl and Stockcharts anomaly
Posted by googool on 16th of Aug 2008 at 10:10 am
I noticed something very bizarre, if I choose "Fill The Chart" as my chart setting, i see a very different picture from when I set a specific Period to cover what "Fill The Chart"covers
here are two charts to show what I mean, what am I missing here?
EMC
Posted by googool on 15th of Aug 2008 at 07:37 pm
matt, steve,
will you take a look at EMC, it seems like it is setting up again
rally soon is very possible
Gold stocks are pathetic! Actually it would be better for ...
Posted by googool on 15th of Aug 2008 at 05:43 pm
rally soon is very possible based on my count,
if the count is right, we are finishing up the 5th wave of a whopper of an a wave correction, so as long as the 5th wave does not extend itself, we are likely to finish this soon, which will make me sad -- it was a hell of a short
not in my experience, as
Gold stocks are pathetic! Actually it would be better for ...
Posted by googool on 15th of Aug 2008 at 05:40 pm
not in my experience, as long as I can count impulse and correction as per guidlines, it's all the same to me. BUT, I ain't no guru, so take my count with a good dose of suspicion
G_weekly.png G_daily.png there you are, feedbacks welcome
Gold stocks are pathetic! Actually it would be better for ...
Posted by googool on 15th of Aug 2008 at 05:10 pm
there you are,
feedbacks welcome
I did an elliott wave
Gold stocks are pathetic! Actually it would be better for ...
Posted by googool on 15th of Aug 2008 at 04:56 pm
I did an elliott wave of g.to (GG in canada) and got to a cycle 1 top, one of my shorts, a bounce may be close, but I doubt we have seen the end, if you want a chart, let me know
BTW, same count foe AEM, which was even weaker since had what looked like 5th wave failure.
sorry matt, I did not mean to intrude, I am also interested in your take
Oh, of course, but GS
anything is possible with oil- the strongest thing in russia's ...
Posted by googool on 15th of Aug 2008 at 02:08 pm
Oh, of course, but GS calls are pump and dump.
when was the last time, GS had back to back quarters of trading losses, they are masters of trading, and they control the short term market, and they have access to crap outlets -- ahem, media I mean
Yep! remeber they called 200
Gold and GS
Posted by googool on 15th of Aug 2008 at 01:46 pm
Yep! remeber they called 200 oil in May?
Cool, thanks, I am short, SKF
PBR
Posted by googool on 15th of Aug 2008 at 01:16 pm
Cool, thanks,
I am short, SKF for almost ever, WYNN since the blow off a few days ago, SDS, and GDX, which, may get covered soon
ON PBR?
PBR
Posted by googool on 15th of Aug 2008 at 01:00 pm
ON PBR?
OK, sorry, I was not
PBR
Posted by googool on 15th of Aug 2008 at 12:59 pm
OK, sorry, I was not judging, but if you got offended, apologies -- hope you accept them
someone urged me to buy
PBR
Posted by googool on 15th of Aug 2008 at 12:53 pm
someone urged me to buy the other days,
this is the message he wrote
"
If your thinking about buying it you better do it soon, it looks like it wants higher prices and the technicals are turning up. Just put a stop somewhere that you feel is as much pain as you can take.
"
I was asked you weather it was you or not, did not mean any offense