Cathie Wood Loads Up $2.7M In Tesla On Day Shares Crash 11.4% — Also Adds This Bitcoin Related Stock

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/cathie-wood-loads-up-2-7m-in-tesla-on-day-shares-crash-11-4-%E2%80%94-also-adds-this-bitcoin-related-stock-1031991636

I know a lot of people are following it here, pretty wild it is the most oversold it has ever been. 

I don't think I have any exposure even through an index fund anymore as it was kicked out of the SPX a bit back I believe. It could still be in the total stock market index. That is the beauty of indexing, the market works all this stuff out, I don't need to be concerned with any of it or following news. 

Less is more, focus on buying and selling a good risk/reward. All the best 

Matt, Thinking of you, your Dad, and family. 

Steve, Welcome back 

Yes, I only buy/sell etfs and low cost mutual funds. And I only own a handful of items maximum at any time. We own one individual stock right now, Disney, just because my wife wants to own some, and I've established it using profits from other trades (a paid for position). When accumulating, I buy on significant weakness into support and sell into long term resistances, same discipline. 

I run two strategies for us, a trading strategy (days, weeks maximum) and a longer term (I call it swing investing strategy) months to year(s). 

The trading strategy is the reversion to mean stuff (SPX and sectors). I will sometimes hold some if my etf is trending well depending on where markets are. XLP was a good example of that over this last year, caught a few major moves on that one. I love a good discount on Consumer staples and have for years. I've done it with SPX too and others. 

The longer term strategy is where I am buying extreme weakness and only selling into extreme strength. A great recent example of that was when we had the June/July weakness this year into the SPX 3,6-3,700s (buying time), then rallied into the 200 day moving average in the 4,300s (selling time). Another example was buying off that 3,500 reversal in October. I posted that positioning here on the trading community in real time as I acted on my wife and I's plan on both occasions and others. 

I enjoy writing and interacting with others who are endeavoring to build their wealth. I've considered a website to document my life and investing experiences in real time. The cool thing about being semi retired is I wouldn't have to do it at the pace I was doing things before. The part I'm having to consider though is being able to manage my involvement with it. I am a very committed person and because I love others, sometimes that means I'll forget to take care of myself. I'm grateful for that quality, though I have to work at it to keep more balanced in my efforts. Happy New Year, I appreciate you! 

SPX (My plan for 2023): 

There will be opportunities throughout the year for both sides (bull and bear), similar to this year. Though the difference will be, once the market makes a new low, that may in fact be it (it won't stay down), and a new bull market could be born. It isn't impossible for a bear market to last longer, it just isn't likely, without some other major event(s) taking place.  With the current backdrop, we have one more down move. The gaps at 3,748 and 3,583 need filled minimum on SPX. 

I definitely want to take advantage of retesting the lows or lower. I have two scenarios, one retests the 9 year moving average or undercuts it some as it normally does before recovering (3,000-3,200s) This is the more bearish view. The other scenario is more flat and taking out recent lows a bit with support holding around 3,300-3,400 (3,380 was a precovid level I believe). In any case, I'll simply watch my chosen indicators and be buying for a longer term swing trade and/or investment. 

My last sells for S&P 500 inventory were at 4,800, 4,600, and 4,300. When I buy those lower areas into extremes, I look to sell it back when it is higher at extremes into the long term major moving average at overbought conditions. The 4,600 and 4,300 sales are from this year. 4,800 sales were in 2021. A lot of that inventory was from corona crash buying, which I still carry about 1/3 left long from that timeframe. I did buy this year on the 3,500 reversal as well, other major lows, and did a lot of trading on both sides in a reversion to mean fashion. 

I think the volatility in that regard will be ending for a bit after things get washed out this year though. All that being said, I have my plan, just at the end of the day, acting on what the market gives me. It helps when I document my plans, then I can act when the time comes. My wife and I will be doing one of our regular investment plan check ups over the holidays. No stress, take action accordingly after that and wait. 

Merry Christmas to all, I appreciate you!   

SPXS just sold the last of it I had into lows of the day. Heck of a trade. Have a heart market, at least rally today now    

I posted this on December 16th regarding that open gap and several times prior. The actual number is 3,748.57 , the close price from November 9th. Notice the cash market opened at 3,859 the next day and the lowest it went was yesterday at 3,764.49. 

So the gap at 3,748.53 still stands from everything I can see. I would like to see data to the contrary if that is not correct. Not a chart as charts will not show the actual number on a particular timeframe. I've had this happen in the past, so I always make a note of the number and refer to prices rather than charts for these figures. 

There is also another below that at 3,583.07 still open. Many gaps above as well. 

When you post these, can you do it as a saved screen shot? I can't see anything on the chart of your notes, just comes up as a chart with moving averages. Thanks for your consideration and sharing. 

12 month PCE inflation rate drops to 5.5% in November from 6.1%. -Dow Jones (source)

Tom wrote a 63 pager recently saying SPX to 4,750 next year. I keep an open mind and I'm  not a bull or bear. Financial tv is a waste and all the news to me. It is fun to try and predict, impossible to do with any consistency though.  

Whenever the market, I call them "Oz" gives an opportunity for an outsized risk/reward I'll take it. Some days it is a few firms behind the controls with some big money pushing things around. Not as complex as it is made out to be. 

PCE prices report tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m.

Thanks Mundy, 

It was an insight I had this morning. I've learned this lesson and relearned it many times in different ways over the years. It is a relationship that must be mastered. Money can be a wonderful tool and it can also destroy someone. 

Glad it was something that helped in any way.

Happy Holidays, all the best! 

Thanks Matt, I look forward to seeing what the systems say as things unfold.

SPX for those following Larry Williams work, this was the day he suggested to buy for a seasonal rally. 

I'm patient here too, closed my trading screen and going to pick up a ham and get something from the hardware store. I made us a preholiday cake last night 

SPX exactly what I mean about the headlines/ stories for why the market is up or down. This is like watching a comedy show. Today's headline is a billionaire talking his book: 

MW Dow falls 450 points after strong data, bearish comments by David Tepper

I did the same, funny I felt at risk putting a good hedge on near yesterday's close. Now today I'm feeling I wish I was still short after taking the profits into this 3800 test. Very difficult market. Playing the odds here and gaps above in hopefully a December rally seasonal usual. If  I'm wrong, that is fine. Won't give away inventory cheap.

The one gap filled at 3,821.62

SPX A new gap has opened above now at 3,878.44. There is another above that at 3,895.75. And another at 3,995s. And more above there longer term. 

Below 3,821s, 3,748s, and 3,583s. 

SPX first gap fill at 3,821.62 is getting close. 

You can be sure that there are always people that know ahead of time. I don't focus on it as it distracts me from executing my plans. It is like allowing someone into my head before gametime. I have to remain focused on my plan. I used to get upset at the repeated scumbag stuff in the market, I had to realize that it is just part of it, I don't make the rules, or enforce fairness. 

The only thing I can do is participate with a plan, work to improve, and make decisions that yield me a great risk/reward chance to succeed. Those who choose to cheat to win have their reward in that and I don't believe they are happier for it. It actually subtracts from their overall situation. Money is the great test of character. It multiplies who someone is.