Posted by frien13d on 15th of Feb 2011 at 04:30 pm
I was not aware of BNO, so thanks.
Interesting to compare BNO to DIG (2X long). I do not know why,
but their performance seems very similar for 6 months on the Daily
chart. On different time frames on different charts their
performance is very different.
I have been looking for the best oil ETF to trade. Any
reservations about BNO except for volume?
With analysts forecasting that the price of gold and silver will
be dropping, how much will that affect the prices of the mining
stocks? Perhaps proportionately, usually, but if the economy
expands, that would mean greater PM usage, so maybe not.
What do the BPT traders think?
And do you think the price of gold and silver really will be
dropping?
Posted by frien13d on 29th of Dec 2010 at 12:51 pm
YRCW was seen a couple of weeks
ago as a short by analysts. The lawsuit mentioned below did not
proceed but it wasn't the reason to short anyway.
YRCW must raise new equity capital and
analysts do not think it can. And its cap exp is years behind. That puts
their maintenance expense on an unsustainable path and it really
does not have a plan for improving the fleet. Below is the Dec. 22
opinion from an analyst that follows the company closely.
Of course, YRCW may rise in spite
of analysts' opinions, but I thought this information should be
included for your consideration.
Rules of the Game May Change Again; No Resolution Yet; Reiterate
Sell
David G. Ross, CFA
J. Bruce Chan
Company Update
YRC
Worldwide released in an 8-K yesterday the 19th amendment to its
credit agreement, which subject to certain conditions 1) would
extend the company's deferral of interest and fees on its debt
until May 2011 (deferral was supposed to cease at year-end), 2)
changes the definition of "consolidated EBITDA" for covenant
compliance purposes to exclude deferred financing, legal, and
accounting costs, 3) lowers the minimum available cash covenant
after 12/31/10 from $50mm to $25mm, 4) resets minimum EBITDA
covenants (which have yet to matter to-date) below prior covenant
amounts (see
Exhibit 1) and 5) resets 2011 maximum capex covenants by
quarter.
The pension
funds have yet to sign off on further deferrals (no payments
through May 2011) and a lower contribution rate (only 25% for the
next few years) and need to do so by 12/31/10 in order for the
credit agreement amendment to become effective. The Teamsters also
need to sign-off on the amendment, but we believe that's a rubber
stamp.
Reiterate
Sell on YRCW: Equity
is likely nearly worthless, as we believe the restructuring
targeted would (like in the last out-of-court restructuring, which
involved exchanging subordinated notes for equity) give most of the
equity in the company to the debt holders, significantly diluting,
if not eliminating, current equity shareholders' value.
4Q10
expectation of EBITDA covenant compliance implies at least $16mm of
adjusted EBITDA for 4Q10, assuming 2Q10 and 3Q10 reported adjusted
EBITDAs hold (although there's a possibility past EBITDA revised
upward, given new EBITDA definition).
Nothing
about the company has significantly changed from this release, in
our view, and no new CEO or equity investor ($300mm of new money
required in the current restructuring plan) has been identified,
leaving us still skeptical of this plan's probability of
success.
We remain
positive on the LTL pricing story for all carriers
regardless of what happens
with YRC and continue to recommend purchase of ABFS (Buy-$27.04),
ODFL (Buy-$31.65), RRTS (Buy-$14.37), SAIA (buy-$16.19) and VTNC
(Buy-$11.78). In our view, YRC's continued operation
should not keep a lid on industry pricing, because YRC is seeking
and needs price as much as anyone to survive.
Exhibit 1 - YRC's changing EBITDA
covenants under its credit agreement
Source:
Company 8-K filings
Prices as of
12/21/20 close.
Company
Description
YRC Worldwide,
Inc. is mainly a unionized less-than-truckload (LTL) company.
Formerly named Yellow Roadway Corp., the company grew from Yellow
Corp (predominantly a long-haul unionized LTL carrier) into a
conglomeration of operating companies. The operating companies
today (after selling almost all of YRC Logistics) consist of YRC
National Transportation (long-haul LTL - Yellow Transportation and
Roadway Express, which were integrated in 2009), and YRC Regional
Transportation (regional LTL - New Penn Motor Express, USF
Reddaway, USF Holland), YRC Truckload (dry van TL - USF Glen
Moore)
"The budget should be balanced, the
Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the
arrogance of
officialdom should be tempered and
controlled and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed
lest Rome become bankrupt. People must
again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance."
Cicero - 55 BC
(And we know what happened to the
Roman Empire.)
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SSL.V breakout
Posted by frien13d on 4th of Aug 2011 at 09:48 am
Check out the nice breakout in Sandstorm Resources (SSL.V) gold that we talked about yesterday.
Thanks much, guys.
Does anyone know of the new gold-based company that operates ...
Posted by frien13d on 3rd of Aug 2011 at 04:03 pm
Thanks much, guys.
Does anyone know of the
Posted by frien13d on 3rd of Aug 2011 at 03:50 pm
Does anyone know of the new gold-based company that operates like Silver Wheaton (SLW)?
Short Linkedin?
Posted by frien13d on 24th of May 2011 at 03:12 pm
Is anyone shorting Linkedin (LNKD)?
Seems like a good play since it is so overvalued, most IPO's drop after their opening, etc.
Joseph1
REVERSAL DAY on daily chart
Posted by frien13d on 2nd of May 2011 at 04:06 pm
Joseph,
Your charting is amazingly good.
Thank you for sharing with us.
We will miss you.
Consider coming back in the future.
Richard
Milton Friedman
"..Is political self interest nobler than economic self interest?"
Posted by frien13d on 8th of Mar 2011 at 03:50 pm
What a great video and commentary. Thanks.
CQE.TO
CQE.To another UpDate
Posted by frien13d on 16th of Feb 2011 at 03:43 pm
What is the exit point?
BNO
crude oil
Posted by frien13d on 15th of Feb 2011 at 04:30 pm
I was not aware of BNO, so thanks.
Interesting to compare BNO to DIG (2X long). I do not know why, but their performance seems very similar for 6 months on the Daily chart. On different time frames on different charts their performance is very different.
I have been looking for the best oil ETF to trade. Any reservations about BNO except for volume?
Any other suggestions?
Thanks
Minco Silver
Posted by frien13d on 31st of Jan 2011 at 01:02 pm
Minco Silver -
MSV.TO or MISVF. small Canadian silver producer with descending broadening formation looks ready to move soon. Raymond James target is $7.50.
IVN
Posted by frien13d on 13th of Jan 2011 at 01:01 pm
IVN moving up nicely
CDTI
Posted by frien13d on 11th of Jan 2011 at 04:04 pm
On the 5 min CDTI chart there are enough wild swings that it makes you wonder if there is not manipulation going on.
Sprott Resource
Posted by frien13d on 10th of Jan 2011 at 10:28 am
Sprott Resource (SCP.TO) looks to be triggering long.
PM miners question for you
Posted by frien13d on 5th of Jan 2011 at 03:57 pm
With analysts forecasting that the price of gold and silver will be dropping, how much will that affect the prices of the mining stocks? Perhaps proportionately, usually, but if the economy expands, that would mean greater PM usage, so maybe not.
What do the BPT traders think?
And do you think the price of gold and silver really will be dropping?
Happy New Year (and Prosperous)
Happy New Year
Posted by frien13d on 31st of Dec 2010 at 09:02 am
And Happy and Prosperous New Year to you, Steve, and to Matt, Thomas and James.
You guys are very smart and diligent with BPTs and we all appreciate you.
And the same to the many great member contributors.
YRCW - info to consider
YRCW
Posted by frien13d on 29th of Dec 2010 at 12:51 pm
YRCW was seen a couple of weeks ago as a short by analysts. The lawsuit mentioned below did not proceed but it wasn't the reason to short anyway. YRCW must raise new equity capital and analysts do not think it can. And its cap exp is years behind. That puts their maintenance expense on an unsustainable path and it really does not have a plan for improving the fleet. Below is the Dec. 22 opinion from an analyst that follows the company closely.
Of course, YRCW may rise in spite of analysts' opinions, but I thought this information should be included for your consideration.
What is everyone's current opinion of these?
Posted by frien13d on 28th of Dec 2010 at 01:51 pm
What is everyone's current opinion of these? Thanks for any comments.
URRE
RPG.TO
DYP
BAN.TO
BTR.V
CUE.V
FMM.V
Auto Refresh
Posted by frien13d on 28th of Dec 2010 at 10:07 am
Thanks Matt, Steve, Tom and James,
For the new inclusive continuous Auto Update, and the other many great features at BPT.
BPT is a great site. We really appreciate all of your hard work.
TLT opinions ?
Posted by frien13d on 21st of Dec 2010 at 03:31 pm
What are opinions about TLT?
Cicero quote
So what have we learned in 2,065 years?
Posted by frien13d on 17th of Dec 2010 at 12:07 pm
Thanks for the correction and finding the original quote.
So what have we learned in 2,065 years?
Posted by frien13d on 17th of Dec 2010 at 08:58 am