XLP - Chart Link- sold off today, doesnt it  generally move opposite to the market? 

You are right about all the talk of big contracts supposedly on the way...those pitches have been thrown around since end of 2024 beginning of 2025. Reminds me of the boy that cried wolf.

The first ES RSI40 entry was on the 9th @ 6801.50 and second was on the 12th @ 6676.25

Another vouch for trusting in the system. So many times of going rogue out of fear but would have been better off following the system

And one more thought....I am not a trader and I'm not in finance. There has always been a fear associated with trading, even these high probability R2M trades. In this case, the ES Pro Scale Out has a 98.65% win rate in its history (going back to 1997 with a total of 4,002 total trades since then). That is UNREAL, to the point of being UNBELIEVABLE if you were to tell anyone those stats. But even with such stats, the human side of me and the emotions are very real and very strong when the market was down notably. What I've had to do is tell myself to TRUST the system, DO NOT GO ROGUE!  It's easier said than done, but after a decade I've learned in recent years to become a lot more disciplined by following the system. I may not be a new member, but this way of thinking is still new to me. Hopefully this will resonate with some members here. If there's anything to take away, it's TRUST the SYSTEM. It's un-canny how accurate they are. And the reason behind they're accuracy is Matt and his algo into the systems, endless backtesting and tweaking. Bravo man!

I wanted to share my experience with the GRAIL system specific to the reversion to mean (R2M) trades. For context, I've been a member for about a decade. I've been working with Matt privately on his systems, both R2M as well as the KISS trend systems. For the R2M, I have been focusing on the daily ES version which is the 1440 min MES chart (sticking with MES before going to the deep end of the big boy's ES club).  Matt has numerous other smaller time frames, but for the time being, the daily is what works best for my work/life situation. For the KISS trend, I like both the daily (1440 min MES) ES system or a smaller timeframe 165 min ES system KISS trend.  For now, sticking with the daily 1440 min ES version, again due to work/life balance.

Now on to real trades that I've taken (FYI, these are Automated). The first R2M for 2026 triggered on MLK day(1/19), it was the Trend Long for ES. I took 12 MES contracts (using Matt's ES Pro Scale Out version) on the closing bar of the 19th. The market sold off about 80 ES points for next day's candle (20th), which did NOT trigger a second entry, but SPY did trigger long for a first entry. I didn't want to disrupt the automation, so I decided not to add to my position even though that would have proved to be the right move (after the fact). The following day, 21st, the market bounced and as you can see from the screenshot image, the system scaled out 5 MES contracts (exact price is displayed on the screenshot for each contract sold) before closing lower.Finally, the 4th day, the remaining 7 MES contracts closed out as the market bounced. 4 of the 7 MES contracts scaled out throughout the day while 3 of the 7 contracts were closed out at CLOSE since the Trend Long was showing an exit. Total profit ($1737.50).

The second R2M for 2026 triggered earlier this week, on 2/4. It was also the Trend Long for ES. Again, I took 12 MES contracts on the closing bar of the 4th (Automated, ES Pro Scale Out version). The market sold off about 99 ES points for the next day's candle (Feb 5th), however because this is the scale out version, the market had bounced 19 ES points before the 99 points down. Well in that 19 points up from the entry on the 4th, the Pro scale out had taken 4 contracts off (only 8 remaining out of the 12 initial MES contracts...see screenshot of image below). So for the closing bar on the 5th (2nd day), ES did NOT trigger a second entry, but SPY did trigger long with the QE BTS long for a first entry. This time, I decided to manually add 4 contracts considering 4 were already automatically closed out. I manually exited out of these 4 contracts with limit orders that were set at around the 2 and 3 EMAs (instead of holding them till the traded closed out). On the 6th (3rd day), the remaining 8 contracts closed out as the market bounced HARD! 5 of the 8 contracts were scaled out on the way up, and the final 3 contracts were closed out when the ES Trend Long was closing out at the end of day. See screenshots for exact prices of scale out and final 3 contracts closing. Total profit ($2071.25), but because I bought a few back manually, my profits were higher, just shy of $3500.

I'm sharing this first to express my gratitude for Matt and his hard work in creating these systems for BPT members. Thank you Matt and your 75 IQ! For those that have been around for a while, and those that are new to BPT, these two examples that are part of the GRAIL system is just a nugget of wealth (pun intended) from BPT. Matt has even more ideas to dial in the systems and trade opportunities, so stay tuned! 

Yes been messing with it today. Watching different smaller time frames (5 min/1min). And took a couple successful long SSO trades off the 15 min and 5 min charts with MA ribbon pinches and cycle supports validated by 1 min chart

I didn't take the trade. Was just viewing it live. It would have been around 1130ish plus or min 15 mins.

Just to clarify, the setup just happened to be there when we saw the 1 min chart. Was unplanned and worth the risk given the extremely tight stop.

Matt had mentioned me in his prior post regarding the MA pinch/cycle trading system. He was kind enough do a Zoom mtg earlier this morning to share details of the system and even did a live SPY trade (using 1 min SPY chart with 30 sec and 15 sec SPY charts for confirmation and entry).

In a nutshell, the 1 min chart was showing a cycle support with MA ribbon going from bearish to bullish and then coming back into a pinch. The support cycles on the 30 sec and 15 sec charts supported the pinch shown on the 1 min chart with various cycle supports, MA pinches in a positive trend and bounces between support to resistance along with a demark 9 on the 30 sec. Some sideways consolidation continued on the 30 sec and 15 sec charts before a breakout proceeded on the 1 min chart. Once a trade was entered (0dte OTM $2.00 option), the stop was right below the 1 min support cycle doji. After about 10 mins of consolidation, trade broke out to the upside (and quickly took profits). This was also confirmed as the 5 min SPY chart was showing a pinch coming in. Key point though, setup was clearly obvious on the 1 min, then 30 sec and 15 sec charts confirmed the setup and allowed for an appropriate entry all while having a very defined stop (either using the 1 min chart or the 30 sec charts would have both worked in this setup).

It works on any time frame that suites your trading style, and can be with stocks, ETFs, futures, options etc. With the right timeframes and discipline, this is an incredibly powerful system to have. Incredible potential with having a defined risk! To me, this is a game changer.

That's a great point you make. I remember back in the day when I messed around with Roulette in Vegas on one work trip. The idea was bet either red or blk and stick with that one color and double down and add $5 each time you lose. Eventually, you will make it back even in a long losing streak of say red...just need to have deep enough pockets to keep on doubling the last play. 

At some point it's gonna come up as blk, even if it's something crazy like 10 straight reds. These HP systems are statistically better than gambling at the casino, so it makes sense to get "excited" when you see a streak of losers even thou emotionally, youre prolly losing your sh#t

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nancy-pelosi-made-500-000-140722196.html

Makes sense with PMOBUYALL showing a sell signal currently...looking at the past (Jan '22 and Aug/Sept '22), there was a sell signal with a continue move up for a couple days before the next leg down

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21PMOBUYALL&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p73563539630&a=1172919217

@timebandit do you have a live link to this chart?

Here is a way to bypass the $10k limit (gift to spouse)

https://tipswatch.com/2022/10/23/want-to-stash-i-bonds-in-a-gift-box-do-it-by-wednesday/

Matt, thoughts on symmetry move on the wedge? Would put it around 1.54?

If it ends up being a trend day, does the follow trading day typically start with pulling back? I recall reading that on here before...can you clarify?

thanks for sharing!

Gotcha, thanks for clarifying

Matt do you mean 2518 instead of 2580? The initial measured move from 2346 was 121 points.  So 121 points from 2397 would be 2518. Can you clarify?

haha I second that