Sales of U.S. commercial real estate plummeted in February, sending the clearest signal yet that a six-year bull market might be coming to an end.

The S&P 500 has rallied over 10% since the February low, push the index up to its 50-week Moving Average. Meanwhile the Volatility Index ($VIX) has declined approx. 47%, sending the ‘fear index’ to its lowest level so far this year.Is this signaling a potential return of stock market volatility?

Currently the VIX is the furthest it’s been from its 50-day MA since the prior lower high in the S&P 500 back in October 2015.As the chart below shows, it’s now more than one standard deviation below the mean based on the distance Volatility historically travels away from its 50-day.

Previous instances of the VIX falling this quickly has led to tough market conditions in the short-term for the stock market.

Fellow See It Market contributor  Steve Deppe also shared on Twitterthat when the VIX that since 1990 when the index’s 20-day return is less than -30%, the average forward return for the S&P 500 over the next 5, 10, 20, and 40 days has been negative.“

Scan of Overbought stocks with Doji on Daily and divergence on two hour chart. Some have gapped up to the doji.

CLS,BMS,AIZ,CHSH,CCE,FXU,EMLC,NUE,BKLN,PX,SMG,TGT

Even with the recent run up the monthly RUT does not look all that great.

RUT Monthly

From one extreme to the other.  Looks similar to 2016.

The Two-day Triple Doji
 
On October 2, 1987, the first of two Doji appeared.  The Open and the Close of that Doji in the Dow Jones Industrials Index on that day were 2639.20 and 2641.00, respectively.  The second of the two Doji appeared on the next trading day, October 5, its Open and Close being 2641.00 and 2640.20 respectively.  (See chart below.)

Note also that, straight across the two Doji, the two Opens and the two Closes were so close in terms of points as to be considered together as a separate, third Doji, which in my book "Candlesticks For Brighties" I have characterized as a "Unique Triple Doji."  "Black Monday" followed, a few weeks later.  From the Close of the second Doji on Monday, October 5, 1987 to the price Low on Black Monday, October 19, prices fell 962.60 points - a decline of 36.46%.

Seems like a bull wedge on the weekly.

Found this under Mechanical Systems 

 - CURRENT TRADE STATUS:  The Original SPY Pro system covered it's short on Feb 29th 2016 and is now in a CASH postion.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/federal-withholding-tax-data-says-us-already-recession

Must be a lot of margin calls today.  Good earnings did not help GOOGL and FB much.

I was wondering what that 60 dollar spike was at the end of the day.

Yes. Thanks on that one also. Zitron.

XLY 15 min

BA 3min