5 min spx slow stochs (60,3) - if gets to and stays above 80,
its a trend day. those are the days to buy the pullback to
the VWAP / fast stochs (10,3,3) turn back above 20. That's a
classic Matt trade, btw.
Matt/Steve, if in expanded flat, on 15 minute, major wave A and
B are complete, correct? Wouldn’t that argue for 5 waves up in C, w
wave 3 underway currently? Thanks for your help
Maybe a low probability, but with the symmetry break, and
subsequent higher low this morning, a symmetry match from this
morning's lows to highs, would suggest that a move into 3730 is
possible - I believe that coincides w max pain on OPEX. low
probability bc 8 of last 10 Fridays have been negative.
The most interesting two points about that video are: 1) Vix
spike to >30 at this time, rather than a point spike which was a
typical 2022 buy-the-dip opportunity, the multiple days >30 is
analogous to April, when the market plunged further, and 2)
Negative sentiment is also not likely a counter-trend point
spike, but the beginning of many months of negative sentiment,
similar to 2008.
Comparison to previous analogous bear markets: four indicate a
material bounce around this point. 2008, however, shows a sharp
sell off from this point. how could 2022 be like 2008?
Swiss National Bank took out $11B in dollars from US treasury
on Wednesday - largest since WFC. Quietly being pitched as an
arbitrage opportunity, but it’s more likely the beginning of a
liquidity crisis.
That guy’s long term view is scary. The basis of his
reasoning is $95B of QT every month for the next three years to
work off the $ Trillions of Covid QE. Consider those 13 years of QE
driven Bull Market.
I sold mine, too @ 248. You could always buy a 21 Oct 250/270
call spread and short 2x the qty of $195 puts to cut the cost down.
would need to be -20% to get hit on the puts, and you're
otherwise risking about 2% of the stock price
I was a semiconductor equipment analyst back in the day at
Lehman, covered ASML. The Semis and Semi_Equip companies obviously
have high correlation. They are the classic cyclical companies.
The "investment" buy point for the SOX/SMH is when they look
the worst - still a long ways away.
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This hit Bloomberg yesterday morning
Posted by te22 on 10th of Nov 2022 at 08:49 am
This hit Bloomberg yesterday morning - FWIW
5 min spx slow stochs
Today is looking like a trend day. Or am I ...
Posted by te22 on 28th of Oct 2022 at 12:19 pm
5 min spx slow stochs (60,3) - if gets to and stays above 80, its a trend day. those are the days to buy the pullback to the VWAP / fast stochs (10,3,3) turn back above 20. That's a classic Matt trade, btw.
squeezy time: Blackrock calling that
Posted by te22 on 28th of Oct 2022 at 12:17 pm
squeezy time: Blackrock calling that Fed will insert term "pivot" into statement next Wednesday.
META aftermarket low price =
META - RIP
Posted by te22 on 26th of Oct 2022 at 08:36 pm
META aftermarket low price = 76% retrace (so far) of all time high to all time low. NFLX did 77%, I believe.
1.618 fib Wave 3 SPX
Posted by te22 on 21st of Oct 2022 at 03:52 pm
1.618 fib Wave 3 SPX 3757.22 first, and highest probability, target has been hit
Possible Upside Targets Wave 1 SPX Lo 3647.41 Hi 3715.28 Wave 3
Posted by te22 on 21st of Oct 2022 at 03:20 pm
so far, your expanded flat
Matt/Steve, if in expanded flat, on 15 minute, major wave ...
Posted by te22 on 21st of Oct 2022 at 12:59 pm
so far, your expanded flat scenario is spot on - great call! thank you
Matt/Steve, if in expanded flat,
Posted by te22 on 21st of Oct 2022 at 11:58 am
Matt/Steve, if in expanded flat, on 15 minute, major wave A and B are complete, correct? Wouldn’t that argue for 5 waves up in C, w wave 3 underway currently? Thanks for your help
Posted by te22 on 21st of Oct 2022 at 11:37 am
Maybe a low probability, but
Posted by te22 on 21st of Oct 2022 at 11:30 am
Maybe a low probability, but with the symmetry break, and subsequent higher low this morning, a symmetry match from this morning's lows to highs, would suggest that a move into 3730 is possible - I believe that coincides w max pain on OPEX. low probability bc 8 of last 10 Fridays have been negative.
fundamentals are clearly negative: FDX,
Steve, would you comment on the transports daily chart? To ...
Posted by te22 on 21st of Oct 2022 at 09:22 am
fundamentals are clearly negative: FDX, CSX, JBHT, KNX, plunge in transport rates and volumes - all pointing down.
The most interesting two points
Plot Elliot Wave and you need 2 aspirin afterwards.
Posted by te22 on 21st of Oct 2022 at 09:04 am
The most interesting two points about that video are: 1) Vix spike to >30 at this time, rather than a point spike which was a typical 2022 buy-the-dip opportunity, the multiple days >30 is analogous to April, when the market plunged further, and 2) Negative sentiment is also not likely a counter-trend point spike, but the beginning of many months of negative sentiment, similar to 2008.
Comparison to previous analogous bear
Posted by te22 on 21st of Oct 2022 at 08:45 am
Comparison to previous analogous bear markets: four indicate a material bounce around this point. 2008, however, shows a sharp sell off from this point. how could 2022 be like 2008? Swiss National Bank took out $11B in dollars from US treasury on Wednesday - largest since WFC. Quietly being pitched as an arbitrage opportunity, but it’s more likely the beginning of a liquidity crisis.
That guy’s long term view
Plot Elliot Wave and you need 2 aspirin afterwards.
Posted by te22 on 21st of Oct 2022 at 08:38 am
That guy’s long term view is scary. The basis of his reasoning is $95B of QT every month for the next three years to work off the $ Trillions of Covid QE. Consider those 13 years of QE driven Bull Market.
I sold mine, too @
NFLX. still going- they tricked me :( left too ...
Posted by te22 on 17th of Oct 2022 at 02:57 pm
I sold mine, too @ 248. You could always buy a 21 Oct 250/270 call spread and short 2x the qty of $195 puts to cut the cost down. would need to be -20% to get hit on the puts, and you're otherwise risking about 2% of the stock price
Steve, do you view the
SPX Daily View
Posted by te22 on 17th of Oct 2022 at 01:37 pm
Steve, do you view the coiling pattern on the SPX today to be a wave 4, or wave B, neither, or hasn't enough time passed for proper judgement. thanks
Nasdaq 100 futures
NQ 1min falling wedge
Posted by te22 on 12th of Oct 2022 at 02:11 pm
Nasdaq 100 futures
Easiest to just layer into
ASML—regarded as one of the most important companies in the ...
Posted by te22 on 7th of Oct 2022 at 11:56 am
Easiest to just layer into SMH. Basket approach is best. in semi equip, ASML, AMAT , LRCX, KLAC, TER are the leaders.
I was a semiconductor equipment
ASML—regarded as one of the most important companies in the ...
Posted by te22 on 7th of Oct 2022 at 11:39 am
I was a semiconductor equipment analyst back in the day at Lehman, covered ASML. The Semis and Semi_Equip companies obviously have high correlation. They are the classic cyclical companies. The "investment" buy point for the SOX/SMH is when they look the worst - still a long ways away.
That SPX 232 pt symmetry
SPX Charts
Posted by te22 on 4th of Oct 2022 at 02:13 pm
That SPX 232 pt symmetry target also coincides w daily 20SMA, and encompasses the Sept 21-22 "thin" zone.