Matt, I have no idea how you do all the things you do and I
admire you for accomplishing all you do. You are pulled in so many
directions. I can't help but believe that you and Steve will have
to add more members to your team over time. I am not a trader. I
manage about $250 million of assets primarily for one client
family. I use a lot of technical analysis in my work and have
plenty of resources to help me. I stumbled across you guys several
years ago and have always been impressed. You do really great work
that I always find extremely insightful and reliable.
Look at Semper MBS Total Return Fund (SEMMX). This is a mortgage
backed securities fund that has been crushed. We think it has one
of the best risk/reward profiles of any fund we follow going
forward 6 to 12 months. Just sayin'. Not a recommendation. Just an
observation.
I just read the introduction to the weekend newsletter and it
all told me one thing. None of us have any idea how quickly this
crisis will be resolved, or where stock prices will be in 30 days,
60 days, 90 days? Is the $SPX going to 1800 or new highs over
the next few months? I'd put even money on either side of that bet.
I am a portfolio manager, and have been for 30 years. I have never
experienced anything like this. No one else has either. I am not a
trader. I'm a good technical analyst. I don't even remember how I
chanced upon
Breakpointtrades.com. I do
remember being intrigued. I have access to all kinds of
institutional research, yet I had never seen anything like Matt and
Steve were doing. I subscribed and thought, let's give this a
chance. At first my skepticism actually grew. Who were these two
guys? No credentials. No track record. But I remained intrigued.
I've been a member for years now and consider this the best
technical analysis site I subscribe to. I consider it to be my
secret weapon. I want to congratulate and thank Matt and Steve for
all their hard and great work. It isn't easy to do what they
do. I look forward to being a member for years to come. As for now,
we are in completely uncharted waters.
I disagree with this. I am one of the older boomer, born in
1948, and I am buying even today. Luckily I went into this meltdown
with about 50% cash. I've been surprised by how much damage has
been done to my portfolio having had all this cash. But luckily I
had lots of dry powder to buy with. I've been investing in stocks
since 1981. I consider this one of the best opportunities of my
life time. I'm a Registered Investment Advisor in Napa, CA. Many of
my clients are boomers too. They feel just like I do, and they all
had the same amount of cash to work with. We are buyers!
VF Corp (VFC) is breaking out from a nearly year long inverse
head and shoulder pattern. We hold it in our Dividend Diamonds
strategy. It has raised the dividend 44 years in a row. Earnings
report next week. If this breakout holds we will buy it for our
Growth portfolio.
I have no idea how he stay in business or why he has any
followers. He is a total contra indicator. I have literally made
trades based on his guidance, always taking the other side of the
trade!
A friend of mine is retired from the paint business. He was a
senior executive at Sherwin-Williams for many years before becoming
CEO of Kelly-Moore. In the fall of 2011 he told me he thought SHW
was a great buy at $70. I didn't take the "tip". Dummy
me.
Mac users can add parallels to their mac's and run all windows
based formats. I stayed away from this for years as I kept hearing
stories about how much it slowed down the mac, and/or it was
intrusive. I use a desk top MAC at home and a brand new macbook air
on the road. I have parallels on both and it works great. It is
easy to shift back and forth and i have no problem running any
programs of any kind.
Dorsey Wright
- The monthly momentum on
GDXjust flipped positive after it was negative for 10 months
from January to October. The shift back to positive monthly
momentum offers another piece of evidence in support of GDX at this
time. After breaking a double top buy signal at $61,
GDXbroke through the negative trendline, shifting the trend
back to positive. In addition, the fund score of
GDXcontinues to rise and is currently scoring at the 5.7
level. Interestingly enough, throughout the recent
correction,
GDX's score managed to stay above the important three score
threshold. As well,
GDX's weekly momentum turned positive, suggesting short term
strength. Given these positive developments,
GDXcan be considered here for new positions. The first
sell signal would take place at $56. Investors are afforded
an initial stop loss at $55, which would violate the
trendline.
Matt and Steve have prominently displayed the chart of the
S&P 500 breaking its 20 month SMA. This is a signal that we
have followed for a long time and we consider it to be a key to
separating bull and bear markets. As of today it would take a minor
miracle for it not to trigger tomorrow. I have looked at all the
major U.S. stock averages. With the exception of the Nasdaq 100 all
of them should close below the 20 month SMA tomorrow.
I have been going through monthly charts of major indexes around
the world. As of tomorrow it now looks like major indexes in all of
the following countries will also get this signal. A few already
have: Australia, India, Brazil, Hong Kong, Russia, China, Canada,
France, Germany, Great Britain, Malaysia, Netherlands, Switzerland,
Japan, Italy, Sweden, Singapore, Mexico, Austria, Spain.
There may be more, but these are the ones I follow.
It also looks like copper, the CRB commodity index and WTI oil
will also get the signal.
We will know for sure tomorrow, but it looks like a global bear
market to me.
Steve, I for one am glad the futures are closed. It has been a
wild week. I have been managing money for myself and clients in the
Napa Valley since 1990. On Monday of this week I lost more money in
one day than every before in a single day. Tuesday I made every
dime of it back and ended the week in the black. But it was gut
wrenching along the way. I am not a short term trader like most on
this blog but I did a lot of trading this week.
I will be drinking some good Napa Valley wine by 5:00 p.m.
tonight. A good weekend to you, Matt and all who post here.
According to
SenitmenTrader.com, the only two other times we were as
oversold as today (on a 10-day basis) was the crash of October 1987
and when Germany invaded France in 1940.
Check out this chart of the correlation between gold prices and
debt cieling limit. Would be a buyer on any pullback. ETF
Profits, source of this chart for me, projects $1900 by 2013 based
on this trajectory.
The "deal" announced today, assuming it passes, solves nothing
for the long term. Dollar down, gold up is the way I see it.
It would be reasonable to assume SLV would pullback if we get
real resolution on all the debt issues, but my take is that is not
happening anywhere. What is going on in the U.S. debate is all
political theatre that most likely "kicks the can" down the road to
2013 before hard issues are faced. The plan announced in Europe
yesterday is most likely the first phase of a bailout that could go
on for years, involve multiple countries and get as large as $2.8
trillion. That estimate is from the Royal Bank of Scotland. That is
$800 billion more than QE1 and QE2 in the U.S. combined. That is
enough "QE" to keep gold and silver prices elevated for years to
come. I am in Matt's camp that there is a long way to go in the
upward movement of gold, and silver will follow.
I am not a trader like most people on this site. My point of
view is much longer. But i am buying GLD and SLV on most every
pullback.
SLV looks to be breaking out to me. P&F chart target is over
50.
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Matt, I have no idea
Matt; No offense but could you please clarify this. Received ...
Posted by pkrsek on 1st of Jul 2020 at 07:01 pm
Matt, I have no idea how you do all the things you do and I admire you for accomplishing all you do. You are pulled in so many directions. I can't help but believe that you and Steve will have to add more members to your team over time. I am not a trader. I manage about $250 million of assets primarily for one client family. I use a lot of technical analysis in my work and have plenty of resources to help me. I stumbled across you guys several years ago and have always been impressed. You do really great work that I always find extremely insightful and reliable.
who could have imagined that?!
2020 in one sentence: A roll of toilet paper is ...
Posted by pkrsek on 20th of Apr 2020 at 03:46 pm
who could have imagined that?!
Look at Semper MBS Total
Posted by pkrsek on 12th of Apr 2020 at 10:09 pm
Look at Semper MBS Total Return Fund (SEMMX). This is a mortgage backed securities fund that has been crushed. We think it has one of the best risk/reward profiles of any fund we follow going forward 6 to 12 months. Just sayin'. Not a recommendation. Just an observation.
I just read the introduction
Posted by pkrsek on 12th of Apr 2020 at 10:05 pm
I just read the introduction to the weekend newsletter and it all told me one thing. None of us have any idea how quickly this crisis will be resolved, or where stock prices will be in 30 days, 60 days, 90 days? Is the $SPX going to 1800 or new highs over the next few months? I'd put even money on either side of that bet. I am a portfolio manager, and have been for 30 years. I have never experienced anything like this. No one else has either. I am not a trader. I'm a good technical analyst. I don't even remember how I chanced upon Breakpointtrades.com. I do remember being intrigued. I have access to all kinds of institutional research, yet I had never seen anything like Matt and Steve were doing. I subscribed and thought, let's give this a chance. At first my skepticism actually grew. Who were these two guys? No credentials. No track record. But I remained intrigued. I've been a member for years now and consider this the best technical analysis site I subscribe to. I consider it to be my secret weapon. I want to congratulate and thank Matt and Steve for all their hard and great work. It isn't easy to do what they do. I look forward to being a member for years to come. As for now, we are in completely uncharted waters.
Very Sorry Steve. That is
Administrative Note:
Posted by pkrsek on 30th of Mar 2020 at 03:24 pm
Very Sorry Steve. That is an incredibly hard loss. Condolences and love to you and your wife.
I disagree with this. I
"The boomers, who hold most of the wealth, will stay ...
Posted by pkrsek on 19th of Mar 2020 at 02:27 pm
I disagree with this. I am one of the older boomer, born in 1948, and I am buying even today. Luckily I went into this meltdown with about 50% cash. I've been surprised by how much damage has been done to my portfolio having had all this cash. But luckily I had lots of dry powder to buy with. I've been investing in stocks since 1981. I consider this one of the best opportunities of my life time. I'm a Registered Investment Advisor in Napa, CA. Many of my clients are boomers too. They feel just like I do, and they all had the same amount of cash to work with. We are buyers!
I recently bought DRRX at
DRRX and TRIL - nice moves today
Posted by pkrsek on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:32 pm
I recently bought DRRX at $2.10 per share. Also bought ZYNE, SLGL, RMTI, and AGTC.
VF Corporation Inverse Head and Shoulder Breakout
Posted by pkrsek on 21st of Jul 2017 at 11:52 am
VF Corp (VFC) is breaking out from a nearly year long inverse head and shoulder pattern. We hold it in our Dividend Diamonds strategy. It has raised the dividend 44 years in a row. Earnings report next week. If this breakout holds we will buy it for our Growth portfolio.
Paul Krsek, 5TQ Capital, LLC
Gartman
Posted by pkrsek on 16th of Sep 2016 at 03:15 pm
I have no idea how he stay in business or why he has any followers. He is a total contra indicator. I have literally made trades based on his guidance, always taking the other side of the trade!
Get well
Quick Update on my status and Newsletter night
Posted by pkrsek on 22nd of Feb 2016 at 04:40 pm
Matt, I am sure all the members are sorry to read about your condition. Please relax and get well.
all the best,
Paul Krsek
SHW
The Lil' paint company that could
Posted by pkrsek on 18th of Apr 2013 at 12:43 pm
A friend of mine is retired from the paint business. He was a senior executive at Sherwin-Williams for many years before becoming CEO of Kelly-Moore. In the fall of 2011 he told me he thought SHW was a great buy at $70. I didn't take the "tip". Dummy me.
Newsletter format controversy
Posted by pkrsek on 23rd of Apr 2012 at 11:52 am
Mac users can add parallels to their mac's and run all windows based formats. I stayed away from this for years as I kept hearing stories about how much it slowed down the mac, and/or it was intrusive. I use a desk top MAC at home and a brand new macbook air on the road. I have parallels on both and it works great. It is easy to shift back and forth and i have no problem running any programs of any kind.
Give it a try. Paul Krsek
BVSN
Posted by pkrsek on 24th of Jan 2012 at 12:26 pm
Matt and Steve, would you short this?
thanks, Paul Krsek
marketguy
Posted by pkrsek on 17th of Nov 2011 at 11:09 am
what are you showing in the middle section of the chart. there is no label on it. thanks, PK
GDX
Posted by pkrsek on 9th of Nov 2011 at 12:31 pm
This in from Dorsey Wright research today.
Dorsey Wright - The monthly momentum on GDX just flipped positive after it was negative for 10 months from January to October. The shift back to positive monthly momentum offers another piece of evidence in support of GDX at this time. After breaking a double top buy signal at $61, GDX broke through the negative trendline, shifting the trend back to positive. In addition, the fund score of GDX continues to rise and is currently scoring at the 5.7 level. Interestingly enough, throughout the recent correction, GDX 's score managed to stay above the important three score threshold. As well, GDX 's weekly momentum turned positive, suggesting short term strength. Given these positive developments, GDX can be considered here for new positions. The first sell signal would take place at $56. Investors are afforded an initial stop loss at $55, which would violate the trendline.
Global Bear Market
Posted by pkrsek on 29th of Sep 2011 at 01:29 pm
Matt and Steve have prominently displayed the chart of the S&P 500 breaking its 20 month SMA. This is a signal that we have followed for a long time and we consider it to be a key to separating bull and bear markets. As of today it would take a minor miracle for it not to trigger tomorrow. I have looked at all the major U.S. stock averages. With the exception of the Nasdaq 100 all of them should close below the 20 month SMA tomorrow.
I have been going through monthly charts of major indexes around the world. As of tomorrow it now looks like major indexes in all of the following countries will also get this signal. A few already have: Australia, India, Brazil, Hong Kong, Russia, China, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Malaysia, Netherlands, Switzerland, Japan, Italy, Sweden, Singapore, Mexico, Austria, Spain.
There may be more, but these are the ones I follow.
It also looks like copper, the CRB commodity index and WTI oil will also get the signal.
We will know for sure tomorrow, but it looks like a global bear market to me.
glad the futures are closed
Posted by pkrsek on 12th of Aug 2011 at 04:18 pm
Steve, I for one am glad the futures are closed. It has been a wild week. I have been managing money for myself and clients in the Napa Valley since 1990. On Monday of this week I lost more money in one day than every before in a single day. Tuesday I made every dime of it back and ended the week in the black. But it was gut wrenching along the way. I am not a short term trader like most on this blog but I did a lot of trading this week.
I will be drinking some good Napa Valley wine by 5:00 p.m. tonight. A good weekend to you, Matt and all who post here.
historic sell off
Posted by pkrsek on 8th of Aug 2011 at 01:24 pm
According to SenitmenTrader.com, the only two other times we were as oversold as today (on a 10-day basis) was the crash of October 1987 and when Germany invaded France in 1940.
Reported by Doug Kass, on RealMoney.com
Gold
Posted by pkrsek on 1st of Aug 2011 at 12:31 pm
Check out this chart of the correlation between gold prices and debt cieling limit. Would be a buyer on any pullback. ETF Profits, source of this chart for me, projects $1900 by 2013 based on this trajectory.
The "deal" announced today, assuming it passes, solves nothing for the long term. Dollar down, gold up is the way I see it.
SLV
Posted by pkrsek on 22nd of Jul 2011 at 01:33 pm
It would be reasonable to assume SLV would pullback if we get real resolution on all the debt issues, but my take is that is not happening anywhere. What is going on in the U.S. debate is all political theatre that most likely "kicks the can" down the road to 2013 before hard issues are faced. The plan announced in Europe yesterday is most likely the first phase of a bailout that could go on for years, involve multiple countries and get as large as $2.8 trillion. That estimate is from the Royal Bank of Scotland. That is $800 billion more than QE1 and QE2 in the U.S. combined. That is enough "QE" to keep gold and silver prices elevated for years to come. I am in Matt's camp that there is a long way to go in the upward movement of gold, and silver will follow.
I am not a trader like most people on this site. My point of view is much longer. But i am buying GLD and SLV on most every pullback.
SLV looks to be breaking out to me. P&F chart target is over 50.