It is not always possible to get the count right during the move
but it will most often show itself after the move completes.
I am certainly NO expert and have just recently started studying
the counts. (Yes news trumps the charts but sometimes it just shows
us a completion) I am finding that even if we don't get all the
counts right that the ROC (and Mac D Histogram) will usually point
out the 3 to 5. (5 being the completion) 3 is usually the
trending move and most of us were thinking that we still would get
a bit stronger 3 DOWN. (That was a pretty funky end to wave 3.
Maybe it would have continued down where the 5 was if the PPT had
not jumped in)
This is just a thought that we may be in some type of ABC UP
move before going back down. If any of you have other thoughts or
other possible counts, I would love to see them. FinaM
Not sure if all this will post but it could help explain the
bigger picture of the ABC correction with the C wave up (possibly
starting) and then still a DOWN market wave to follow to new 2008
lows. There are no charts here but this is most of the text
from the Elliott Wave site Wavespeak.com from this weekend's
update. Might be worth reading after the market closes as
this is a longer term perspective and they have been recommending a
cash position until the near term direction was clear.
The indices took a major beating on Thursday,
thrusting the Blue Chips back below August’s lows as was set up by
the price pattern at the end of last week. In the process of
falling off a cliff, the Dow and SPX moved below their key downside
levels, sending yet another blow to the small possibility that a
bullish outcome will occur. To be sure, this is setting up at least
one more big multi-week decline that carries all indices to new
2008 lows and beyond – but not yet. If you’ve been following along,
you know that the pattern dictates a larger upward correction off
July’s lows before the overall decline is ready to resume. With
price reversing higher off its lows today, it’s possible that we’re
now embarking on a much larger advance, one that will carry price
to the final high of this choppy upward move. That should make for
some interesting – and tradable – action in the coming week.
Over on the NDX, continued weakness leaves no doubt
that all upward movement off March’s low is corrective, and that
the overall downtrend is still dominant. As recently indicated, it
may take quite a bit of posturing before we find ourselves at new
lows, especially considering the setup on the Blue Chips. All of
this will be discussed in detail below. Once price is fully
considered, we’ll look at thetechnical indicators and a number of
interesting readings.
ELLIOTT
After weeks of indecisive movement, price took a
much more directional path this week. Price set up this week’s
descent last week, and the indices obliged with a notable sell off
that drove price to its lowest levels it’s seen since July’s lows
were recorded. No doubt about it, this action appears bearish:
We can keep this very simple. Off May’s high, price
traced out a clear, sharp impulse down. This impulse down completed
in July, and has led to a time-consuming, choppy pattern that has
to be considered corrective. Overall, then, we’re left looking at
an impulse down followed by a corrective recovery, and as you know,
that’s the recipe for at least one more big impulse down. This was
already the likely outcome, but this week’s decline makes it even
more so:
Here’s what is
going on:
The advance off July’s lows is a large corrective
move, because if the move isn’t impulsive, then it has to be
corrective. That makes sense, given that we’ve spent most of the
past eight weeks tracing out three-wave patterns, which by nature
are corrective. As shown above, this is a bearish pattern, as it
portends at least one more big impulsive decline that will carry
the indices to new 2008 lows and beyond. That’s what’s coming, but
it doesn’t look like we’re ready to go cliff diving just yet.
Instead, it looks like we’ll get a big C wave advance from here or
near here. This move will carry price back to new highs for the
move off July’s lows, thereby completing the advance. The reason we
expect a Cwave up to occur is the form of the current down
leg. This down leg started on August 11
th, and as you can see
above, the initial moves were a three-wave decline, followed by a
three-wave advance that tested advance highs at the start of this
week. This back and forth action indicates that we’ve been in a B
wave down, and a C wave advance is needed to complete the ABC
move.
If wave C up did begin
off today’s lows, price will stay above11100 Dow and 1225
SPXat all times. From there,
trade above 11500 Dow and 1270
SPX would confirm that wave C
up is underway and is en route to new advance highs. As long as
this pattern remains constructive early in the coming week while
staying above the levels indicated, this should be seen as an
opportunity to enter a near-term long-side position. If these
downside levels are breached, simply wait for one more low to occur
before looking to get involved. Either way, an opportunity on the
long side appears to be setting up, so be ready for it.
The NDX led the descent this week. After breaching
its key downside level at 1860 early on, it lost another 100 points
before bouncing back late Friday. This action looks bearish no
matter how you slice. This is because there are only two possible
ways to label the pattern on this index, and both result in new
2008 lows, due to all action off the March low now proving
corrective:
This is one way, and it says that the next big
impulse down to and through current 2008 lows has begun. If this is
the case, we’re heading much lower right away.
The other possibility is
that a larger upward correction will form as shown here. Trade back
above1850would indicate such a
resolution, and would line up better with the Blue Chips as
discussed above. It should be clear shortly which is the case.
On the technical front, note that all indices are
now well below their respective 50-day moving averages after this
week’s beat down. Meanwhile, daily MACD has turned down and is on a
new sell signal.
Elsewhere, the Nasdaq
Bullish Percent Index matched the NYSE BPI by issuing a new sell
signal this week, the first new signal to occur since July’s low in
price occurred.
Finally, one area of concern is the fact that
Breadth still hasn’t pulled off the test of its upper band.
We’ll keep an eye on this to determine if it will
affect the potential of a large C wave up from here.
This is an interesting point for the pattern after
this week’s decline, and it should add up to a nice trading
opportunity shortly.
Matt had a good update tonight but the BPNYA and BPCOMP were not
on there. He has previously posted them and I save them to
use for my IRA account (longer term trading) If you change
the ticker once you open this to $BPCOMP, or $BPINDU you will
notice that one may give a sell or buy signal a day or 2
before the other.
For newer members, remember to click on ANNOTATE once you open
this and then UPLOAD and you can then save this to your Stockcharts
favorites (if you have stockcharts)
Anyway, the point is that this is something that you can save
and keep so that you can then make your OWN buy and sell signals on
the longer term charts and hopefully stay in them more
objectively.
I am off to Australia next week for a 2 week vacation and will
just check this chart once a day while I am gone and ride out the
shorter term bounces.
Paulette and Keith or Matt: I tried to highlight the name
in the message and I did not get the chain/link symbol open
up. So this is posted as a cut and paste. I see the Subject,
Titlelink and file 1 and Browse etc. If you can tell me which
of these to use, I am happy to try that in the future. I
also tried pasting my URL in the File #1 and that did not work
either. Thanks FinaM
Thanks to all of you - mostly Matt, Steve, RP. I am
learning and making some money. Both in my short term and IRA
account.
IBD just put the "market in correction" and this usually lasts
several weeks to months so we will see. I was following IBD
exclusively and did all 4 levels of their training but you guys
make me much more money - especially in a BEAR market.
We were certainly all warned to "look out"
for today.
for those of you trading short term 15 or 5 minute indexes in
your trading account, I have noticed that the 15 Minute VIX is a
pretty good trigger indicator if you follow the Mac D. Matt
had previously pointed this out but I was slow to pick up on it.
Saves counting the waves but that is good practice anyway.
FinaM
The 30 Min worked great yesterday as we were trending. It would
be nice to be able to use this every time but sometimes we just
have to grab the smaller gains and book profits. Notice the
Mac D and the alternate EMA readings for triggers. You could use
these charts to learn to count your own 5 waves in each
direction.
Yesterday we got an extended third wave up (Matt's 30 Minute
charts showed it well and I noticed that the 30 Min Mac D on
Stockcharts seems to follow Ninja Trader closely. The one
consistant thing that I see on this chart is that using the ROC you
can clearly see that the third wave is always the most
extended. Then after wave 5 comes the turn.
You are welcome. One thing I forgot to mention is that I
sell my position at the end of each day as overnight news often
trumps the charts (like now we are up in premarket which did not
show in the charts last night.) FinaM
Here is the 5 minute chart. This is really a better one to
use to identify the 5 waves up or down. Simple 13/34
crossovers also work well. WAIT for the 5th wave for a better
trade, but at least catch wave 3 up or down. Fina
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Title: spx http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p29627585858&a=149487630&listNum=11 It is not always
Posted by finam on 19th of Sep 2008 at 11:52 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p29627585858&a=149487630&listNum=11
It is not always possible to get the count right during the move but it will most often show itself after the move completes.
I am certainly NO expert and have just recently started studying the counts. (Yes news trumps the charts but sometimes it just shows us a completion) I am finding that even if we don't get all the counts right that the ROC (and Mac D Histogram) will usually point out the 3 to 5. (5 being the completion) 3 is usually the trending move and most of us were thinking that we still would get a bit stronger 3 DOWN. (That was a pretty funky end to wave 3. Maybe it would have continued down where the 5 was if the PPT had not jumped in)
This is just a thought that we may be in some type of ABC UP move before going back down. If any of you have other thoughts or other possible counts, I would love to see them. FinaM
Title: Thanks rp Even from Down
We'll...pretty easy day just buying SDS, TWM in the morning ...
Posted by finam on 19th of Sep 2008 at 11:09 am
Even from Down Under in Australia, I can make money following RP.
I can't hear Bush from here but I hope he keeps on talking.
Good Day Mates: FinaM
Matt's Posts
15 min SPX chart
Posted by finam on 9th of Sep 2008 at 02:27 pm
I agree that they are priceless.
I am trading them on my short term account and doing very well.
How cares what wave we are in? These are working. We just have to be nimble as they change.
FinaM
Elliott Wave
Posted by finam on 8th of Sep 2008 at 10:26 am
Not sure if all this will post but it could help explain the bigger picture of the ABC correction with the C wave up (possibly starting) and then still a DOWN market wave to follow to new 2008 lows. There are no charts here but this is most of the text from the Elliott Wave site Wavespeak.com from this weekend's update. Might be worth reading after the market closes as this is a longer term perspective and they have been recommending a cash position until the near term direction was clear.
The indices took a major beating on Thursday, thrusting the Blue Chips back below August’s lows as was set up by the price pattern at the end of last week. In the process of falling off a cliff, the Dow and SPX moved below their key downside levels, sending yet another blow to the small possibility that a bullish outcome will occur. To be sure, this is setting up at least one more big multi-week decline that carries all indices to new 2008 lows and beyond – but not yet. If you’ve been following along, you know that the pattern dictates a larger upward correction off July’s lows before the overall decline is ready to resume. With price reversing higher off its lows today, it’s possible that we’re now embarking on a much larger advance, one that will carry price to the final high of this choppy upward move. That should make for some interesting – and tradable – action in the coming week.
Over on the NDX, continued weakness leaves no doubt that all upward movement off March’s low is corrective, and that the overall downtrend is still dominant. As recently indicated, it may take quite a bit of posturing before we find ourselves at new lows, especially considering the setup on the Blue Chips. All of this will be discussed in detail below. Once price is fully considered, we’ll look at thetechnical indicators and a number of interesting readings.
ELLIOTT
After weeks of indecisive movement, price took a much more directional path this week. Price set up this week’s descent last week, and the indices obliged with a notable sell off that drove price to its lowest levels it’s seen since July’s lows were recorded. No doubt about it, this action appears bearish:
We can keep this very simple. Off May’s high, price traced out a clear, sharp impulse down. This impulse down completed in July, and has led to a time-consuming, choppy pattern that has to be considered corrective. Overall, then, we’re left looking at an impulse down followed by a corrective recovery, and as you know, that’s the recipe for at least one more big impulse down. This was already the likely outcome, but this week’s decline makes it even more so:
Here’s what is going on:
The advance off July’s lows is a large corrective move, because if the move isn’t impulsive, then it has to be corrective. That makes sense, given that we’ve spent most of the past eight weeks tracing out three-wave patterns, which by nature are corrective. As shown above, this is a bearish pattern, as it portends at least one more big impulsive decline that will carry the indices to new 2008 lows and beyond. That’s what’s coming, but it doesn’t look like we’re ready to go cliff diving just yet. Instead, it looks like we’ll get a big C wave advance from here or near here. This move will carry price back to new highs for the move off July’s lows, thereby completing the advance. The reason we expect a Cwave up to occur is the form of the current down leg. This down leg started on August 11
th , and as you can see above, the initial moves were a three-wave decline, followed by a three-wave advance that tested advance highs at the start of this week. This back and forth action indicates that we’ve been in a B wave down, and a C wave advance is needed to complete the ABC move.
If wave C up did begin off today’s lows, price will stay above 11100 Dow and 1225 SPX at all times. From there, trade above 11500 Dow and 1270 SPX would confirm that wave C up is underway and is en route to new advance highs. As long as this pattern remains constructive early in the coming week while staying above the levels indicated, this should be seen as an opportunity to enter a near-term long-side position. If these downside levels are breached, simply wait for one more low to occur before looking to get involved. Either way, an opportunity on the long side appears to be setting up, so be ready for it.
The NDX led the descent this week. After breaching its key downside level at 1860 early on, it lost another 100 points before bouncing back late Friday. This action looks bearish no matter how you slice. This is because there are only two possible ways to label the pattern on this index, and both result in new 2008 lows, due to all action off the March low now proving corrective:
This is one way, and it says that the next big impulse down to and through current 2008 lows has begun. If this is the case, we’re heading much lower right away.
The other possibility is that a larger upward correction will form as shown here. Trade back above 1850 would indicate such a resolution, and would line up better with the Blue Chips as discussed above. It should be clear shortly which is the case.
On the technical front, note that all indices are now well below their respective 50-day moving averages after this week’s beat down. Meanwhile, daily MACD has turned down and is on a new sell signal.
Elsewhere, the Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index matched the NYSE BPI by issuing a new sell signal this week, the first new signal to occur since July’s low in price occurred.
Finally, one area of concern is the fact that Breadth still hasn’t pulled off the test of its upper band.
We’ll keep an eye on this to determine if it will affect the potential of a large C wave up from here.
This is an interesting point for the pattern after this week’s decline, and it should add up to a nice trading opportunity shortly.
Weekly and Trends
Weekly Indices _FYI
Posted by finam on 6th of Sep 2008 at 12:15 pm
Thanks, I like the charts.
Minor 3 of wave 3
S&P 60 min chart.png Here's a 60 min chart of the ...
Posted by finam on 5th of Sep 2008 at 06:44 pm
Minor 3 of wave 3 should be some trip DOWN.
Title: BPCOMP http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p10270130718&a=147138978&listNum=9 Notice that this triggered
Posted by finam on 5th of Sep 2008 at 08:05 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p10270130718&a=147138978&listNum=9
Notice that this triggered a day after the BPNYA. (could have gotten you ready a day earlier if looking at both)
Title: BPNYA BPNYA http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPNYA&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p10270130718&a=150387329&listNum=9 Matt had a good
Posted by finam on 5th of Sep 2008 at 07:56 am
BPNYA
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPNYA&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p10270130718&a=150387329&listNum=9
Matt had a good update tonight but the BPNYA and BPCOMP were not on there. He has previously posted them and I save them to use for my IRA account (longer term trading) If you change the ticker once you open this to $BPCOMP, or $BPINDU you will notice that one may give a sell or buy signal a day or 2 before the other.
For newer members, remember to click on ANNOTATE once you open this and then UPLOAD and you can then save this to your Stockcharts favorites (if you have stockcharts)
Anyway, the point is that this is something that you can save and keep so that you can then make your OWN buy and sell signals on the longer term charts and hopefully stay in them more objectively.
I am off to Australia next week for a 2 week vacation and will just check this chart once a day while I am gone and ride out the shorter term bounces.
Paulette and Keith or Matt: I tried to highlight the name in the message and I did not get the chain/link symbol open up. So this is posted as a cut and paste. I see the Subject, Titlelink and file 1 and Browse etc. If you can tell me which of these to use, I am happy to try that in the future. I also tried pasting my URL in the File #1 and that did not work either. Thanks FinaM
Watchlist
SDS & MZZ
Posted by finam on 4th of Sep 2008 at 09:12 pm
Thanks to all of you - mostly Matt, Steve, RP. I am learning and making some money. Both in my short term and IRA account.
IBD just put the "market in correction" and this usually lasts several weeks to months so we will see. I was following IBD exclusively and did all 4 levels of their training but you guys make me much more money - especially in a BEAR market.
We were certainly all warned to "look out" for today.
Thanks again, FinaM
spx and vix
Posted by finam on 3rd of Sep 2008 at 10:54 am
for those of you trading short term 15 or 5 minute indexes in your trading account, I have noticed that the 15 Minute VIX is a pretty good trigger indicator if you follow the Mac D. Matt had previously pointed this out but I was slow to pick up on it. Saves counting the waves but that is good practice anyway. FinaM
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=15&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p59465899481&a=149576756&listNum=6
I still don't know how to post the charts correctly so don't open this if you already have VIX saved and it won't over ride what you have.
SPX 15 MIN
Posted by finam on 2nd of Sep 2008 at 09:59 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p82545648778&a=146178739&listNum=11
The last move was an ABC. Steve warned me about that. THANKS Steve, Fina
15 MIN SPX
Posted by finam on 29th of Aug 2008 at 10:38 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p82545648778&a=146178739&listNum=11
SPX 30 MIN
Posted by finam on 29th of Aug 2008 at 07:13 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p43436880602&a=149777974&listNum=21
The 30 Min worked great yesterday as we were trending. It would be nice to be able to use this every time but sometimes we just have to grab the smaller gains and book profits. Notice the Mac D and the alternate EMA readings for triggers. You could use these charts to learn to count your own 5 waves in each direction.
spx 15 min
Posted by finam on 29th of Aug 2008 at 07:01 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p62758709772&a=149486975&listNum=11
Again the ROC helped point out the third wave.
spx 15 min
Posted by finam on 29th of Aug 2008 at 06:57 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p82545648778&a=146178739&listNum=11
Yesterday we got an extended third wave up (Matt's 30 Minute charts showed it well and I noticed that the 30 Min Mac D on Stockcharts seems to follow Ninja Trader closely. The one consistant thing that I see on this chart is that using the ROC you can clearly see that the third wave is always the most extended. Then after wave 5 comes the turn.
I'll send the 5 minute one next. Fina
5 Min SPX
Posted by finam on 28th of Aug 2008 at 01:12 pm
You can see the divergence better on this one
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p62758709772&a=149486975&listNum=11
S & P
Posted by finam on 28th of Aug 2008 at 01:10 pm
I wanted to see what Matt was pointing out about the PSAR and here it is (in case some of you don't have this set up)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1894565,11&cmd=show&disp=e
Looks busy but notice the ROC could be signaling a wave 3 on the 15 Minute charts and Wave 5 on the 5 minute charts (next)
spx 15 Min
Posted by finam on 28th of Aug 2008 at 09:40 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p78601968773&a=146178739&listNum=11
It could also be the 5th wave up.
You are welcome. One thing
SDS/SSO Trades
Posted by finam on 28th of Aug 2008 at 09:04 am
You are welcome. One thing I forgot to mention is that I sell my position at the end of each day as overnight news often trumps the charts (like now we are up in premarket which did not show in the charts last night.) FinaM
5 Minute SDS/SSO
Posted by finam on 28th of Aug 2008 at 08:38 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p62758709772&a=149486975&listNum=11
Here is the 5 minute chart. This is really a better one to use to identify the 5 waves up or down. Simple 13/34 crossovers also work well. WAIT for the 5th wave for a better trade, but at least catch wave 3 up or down. Fina