Just a possibility in case the market continues to crash
below 8300 Dow from here.
Wednesday morning's
stock market plunge is the third sub-leg within wave
{d}down,
{c}down, and this symmetrical
triangle is really taking shape, its validity enhanced by
Wednesday's morning price action. No guarantees, as we strictly are
dealing in probabilities, however this means the probability that a
stock market crash leg to a final bottom for wave
a-down from October 2007's
all-time high in the Industrials, a coming wave
5down,
is imminent. If the
triangle pattern is in fact occurring, which looks highly probably,
it means stocks should bottom intraday around 8,600, then bounce,
perhaps to 8,900ish +/-. That small bounce would be the final wave
{e}of this triangle. Then we
plunge. Tomorrow is our next scheduled phi mate turn date, which
+/- a day or so, could represent the end of this triangle pattern.
It looks to us as if wave
{d}down did in fact already
bottom at 8,622, and wave
{e}up has started.
Warning: I have seen
triangle patterns before where the last two waves, in the case,
wave
{d}down and
{e}up truncate, are abbreviated,
meaning if prices drop decisively below where we sit now, 8,600ish,
let's say they drop to 8,300ish, it likely means waves
{d}and
{e}truncated, completed
yesterday, and we are now headed to the 6,000's in the
Industrials.
This might help some of you for triggers intra day. I
agree that it is VERY scary to hold overnight. But, this is
pretty good through the day to catch the turns. (regardless of what
wave we are in) Good Luck out there. Fina
Thanks RP and Steve and Matt. I netted $57,000 on my short
positions over the last week and a half since I came back from
Australia. Now I am back in all cash (Fidelity Funds)
Could not have done it without you guys.
I often give up my gains so I am very happy to be in
cash right now and OUT. FinaM
Steve: Good for you for spending time with your
boys. Children help us all stay focused on the real
priorities of life. AND ad a bit of humor to what we
do.
The most fun I had this week was playing freeze dance on
Friday night with 2 little girls that I babysat for in their living
room. I was roaring with laughter watching them try to remain
still. Fina
Thanks vmath for posting that. EWII and several
others also talk a lot about the TED Spread. I know that
they said it is the difference between the safer US T-bills and the
Libor and the implications are NOT good here right now and that
while credit spreads continue to widen the stock market should
remain under downward pressure, at times severe.
We may have had some talk of this on the blog and I missed it
but if you or someone here can explain the Ted Spreads implications
in some basic terms, I would also appreciate that. and even a chart
that I could save to Stockcharts.
Maybe Bloomberg is the only one with this chart as it does not
seem readily available. Fina
Thanks everyone for the replies. This BEAR market could
get much uglier before we ever get a long term uptrend (even
if we get that bounce at the end of October, most of us
believe that it would be just another Bear market
bounce)
Elliott Wave International says that we are continuing the GRAND
SUPERCYCLE DOWN that started on January 14, 2000. And that the
Suprecycle, Cycle, Primary and Intermediate trends are all
DOWN. (Steve and Matt and RP have been telling us for a
while now that the Primary trend is down) Dow theory just
Reconfirmed that yesterday when the Dow Transports undercut their
previous low from January.
I am thinking that for now, I'll move some funds to different
brokerage houses and not keep any more than $100,000 in cash in
each. Not too sure about the implications of investing in QID
and TWM, SDS and SRS type of funds as I am holding some
of these. I do have separate accounts for Long term and
shorter term trades but they are all with Fidelity and heavy in
cash.
I am retired so I would rather be a bit cautious at this time so
thanks for all the suggestions. Enjoy your weekend. FinaM
Does anyone know how safe our investment funds are in Fidelity
Investments or other brokerage houses, and if they are covered
under the $250,000 FDIC insurance?
I am wondering if I should move some funds to another
brokerage? Not sure how to get physical gold or Swiss Franks
and how to hold them but I do have more than $250,000 in
Fidelity.
That was too funny. What CNBC really needs is some Elliott
Wave Experts and some Matt and Steve updates. (but then that
would probably throw off the Elliott Waves)
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Title: Systems Matt: a One or
System overview links
Posted by finam on 29th of Oct 2008 at 10:23 am
Matt: a One or 2 Page summary fo your system would be GREAT.
I have not yet set up IB or TD (but am lening towards IB) and Ninja.
Whatever you have as written guidelines for these would be a BIG help.
Thanks for all that you and Steve do for us. FinaM
Truncated E Possibility
Posted by finam on 23rd of Oct 2008 at 09:34 am
Just a possibility in case the market continues to crash below 8300 Dow from here.
Wednesday morning's stock market plunge is the third sub-leg within wave {d}down, {c}down, and this symmetrical triangle is really taking shape, its validity enhanced by Wednesday's morning price action. No guarantees, as we strictly are dealing in probabilities, however this means the probability that a stock market crash leg to a final bottom for wave a-down from October 2007's all-time high in the Industrials, a coming wave 5down, is imminent. If the triangle pattern is in fact occurring, which looks highly probably, it means stocks should bottom intraday around 8,600, then bounce, perhaps to 8,900ish +/-. That small bounce would be the final wave {e}of this triangle. Then we plunge. Tomorrow is our next scheduled phi mate turn date, which +/- a day or so, could represent the end of this triangle pattern. It looks to us as if wave {d}down did in fact already bottom at 8,622, and wave {e}up has started.
Warning: I have seen triangle patterns before where the last two waves, in the case, wave {d}down and {e}up truncate, are abbreviated, meaning if prices drop decisively below where we sit now, 8,600ish, let's say they drop to 8,300ish, it likely means waves {d}and {e}truncated, completed yesterday, and we are now headed to the 6,000's in the Industrials.
YEAH. When everyone is PUKING
floor traders saying they don't want to be short because ...
Posted by finam on 10th of Oct 2008 at 05:13 pm
YEAH. When everyone is PUKING then we should get a bottom. I vote for more PUKIN.
Title: qld Here is the QLD
Posted by finam on 9th of Oct 2008 at 09:46 am
Here is the QLD if it is easier to follow.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QLD&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p73277832453&a=152812322&listNum=25
Title: 5 Min Crossover http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1894565,26&cmd=show&disp=E Without worrying
Posted by finam on 9th of Oct 2008 at 09:42 am
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1894565,26&cmd=show&disp=E
Without worrying about the wave counts, this is a pretty good trigger. Finam
wave count
Posted by finam on 9th of Oct 2008 at 07:19 am
Matt: Can you please post the wave count (30 Min Chart) as a dynamic so that we can save it? Great update. THANKS, FinaM
spx Short term
Posted by finam on 7th of Oct 2008 at 03:44 pm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p73277832453&a=152758222&listNum=1
This might help some of you for triggers intra day. I agree that it is VERY scary to hold overnight. But, this is pretty good through the day to catch the turns. (regardless of what wave we are in) Good Luck out there. Fina
THANKS RP
Posted by finam on 6th of Oct 2008 at 03:01 pm
Thanks RP and Steve and Matt. I netted $57,000 on my short positions over the last week and a half since I came back from Australia. Now I am back in all cash (Fidelity Funds) Could not have done it without you guys.
I often give up my gains so I am very happy to be in cash right now and OUT. FinaM
Thanks Maggi for the chart.
Buried in the 700 billion dollar bailout was this gem giving the solar industry major tax advantages
Posted by finam on 5th of Oct 2008 at 01:03 pm
Thanks Maggi for the chart. THAT was the one I was referring to.
Steve: Good for you for
We hardly heard Matt/Steve.......yet.......
Posted by finam on 5th of Oct 2008 at 11:56 am
Steve: Good for you for spending time with your boys. Children help us all stay focused on the real priorities of life. AND ad a bit of humor to what we do.
The most fun I had this week was playing freeze dance on Friday night with 2 little girls that I babysat for in their living room. I was roaring with laughter watching them try to remain still. Fina
Thanks vmath for posting that.
Buried in the 700 billion dollar bailout was this gem giving the solar industry major tax advantages
Posted by finam on 5th of Oct 2008 at 11:50 am
Thanks vmath for posting that. EWII and several others also talk a lot about the TED Spread. I know that they said it is the difference between the safer US T-bills and the Libor and the implications are NOT good here right now and that while credit spreads continue to widen the stock market should remain under downward pressure, at times severe.
We may have had some talk of this on the blog and I missed it but if you or someone here can explain the Ted Spreads implications in some basic terms, I would also appreciate that. and even a chart that I could save to Stockcharts.
Maybe Bloomberg is the only one with this chart as it does not seem readily available. Fina
Yes, January low was 4032
Buried in the 700 billion dollar bailout was this gem giving the solar industry major tax advantages
Posted by finam on 4th of Oct 2008 at 07:10 pm
Yes, January low was 4032 and we closed yesterday at 4134. We are close though. Not sure what charts EWII used.
spic
Posted by finam on 4th of Oct 2008 at 06:46 pm
Thanks RP: I am a few dollars short of that $20Million mark too.
I just checked most of my cash is in my IRA at Fidelity in FDRXX (Money Market funds) My trading acct cash is FTEXX.
Thanks for getting back to me on this.
I'll check out the links you sent. Fina
Brokerage Houses
Buried in the 700 billion dollar bailout was this gem giving the solar industry major tax advantages
Posted by finam on 4th of Oct 2008 at 10:53 am
Thanks everyone for the replies. This BEAR market could get much uglier before we ever get a long term uptrend (even if we get that bounce at the end of October, most of us believe that it would be just another Bear market bounce)
Elliott Wave International says that we are continuing the GRAND SUPERCYCLE DOWN that started on January 14, 2000. And that the Suprecycle, Cycle, Primary and Intermediate trends are all DOWN. (Steve and Matt and RP have been telling us for a while now that the Primary trend is down) Dow theory just Reconfirmed that yesterday when the Dow Transports undercut their previous low from January.
I am thinking that for now, I'll move some funds to different brokerage houses and not keep any more than $100,000 in cash in each. Not too sure about the implications of investing in QID and TWM, SDS and SRS type of funds as I am holding some of these. I do have separate accounts for Long term and shorter term trades but they are all with Fidelity and heavy in cash.
I am retired so I would rather be a bit cautious at this time so thanks for all the suggestions. Enjoy your weekend. FinaM
Investment Accounts
Buried in the 700 billion dollar bailout was this gem giving the solar industry major tax advantages
Posted by finam on 4th of Oct 2008 at 07:59 am
Does anyone know how safe our investment funds are in Fidelity Investments or other brokerage houses, and if they are covered under the $250,000 FDIC insurance?
I am wondering if I should move some funds to another brokerage? Not sure how to get physical gold or Swiss Franks and how to hold them but I do have more than $250,000 in Fidelity.
Thanks, FinaM
VIX chart
VIX 60 min.png VIX 60 min chart in a triangle pattern
Posted by finam on 3rd of Oct 2008 at 04:45 pm
Matt: Not that we don't ask for EVERYTHING but could you also please include the TRIX on that VIX chart dynamic?
Thanks and get some rest this week. You and Steve and RP did a GREAT job of setting us up for this big DOWN week. FinaM
Title: cnbc That was too funny.
Pelosi
Posted by finam on 3rd of Oct 2008 at 02:07 pm
That was too funny. What CNBC really needs is some Elliott Wave Experts and some Matt and Steve updates. (but then that would probably throw off the Elliott Waves)
Title: THANKS Thanks for the dynamic
S&P 500 30 min chart
Posted by finam on 1st of Oct 2008 at 01:15 pm
Thanks for the dynamic charts (this and GDX) You guys are doing an AMAZING job of keeping us informed. FinaM
Title: SPY DYNAMIC http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=6&id=p65175211982&a=152384707&listNum=2 From Steve's update
Posted by finam on 1st of Oct 2008 at 06:25 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=6&id=p65175211982&a=152384707&listNum=2
From Steve's update last night. Here is the dynamic chart in case any of you want to save it. THANKS Steve for a GREAT update. FinaM
Wave 3 or 5
$spx
Posted by finam on 30th of Sep 2008 at 02:57 pm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p49396514615&a=152344351&listNum=6
I use the ROC to point out wave 3 and 5. You can see it here. The ROC is usually extreme at 3 and often has divergence at 5.