Stocks above 50 sma now showing very low readings and positive
div. Similar positive div on 20R, 50R and 200R for
nasdaq, NYA and SPX (Also positive div on $nymo.)
($NYA advancing issues/NYA total issue.)
May get a final market washout next week with positive div
building in a number of breadth indicators
Great matt, Having them at each entry level would be great if
possible?
I have analysed the spy system over 25 years and have draw down
statistics for each entry, but as the spy systems as a whole not
the individual systems at each entry level. Like entry 3 have a max
DD of 4.85%. Entry 4 about 2.85% max. I have planned my entry
capital allotment based on these DDs. Beware of es futures
trades on entries 1 and 2 as can get Margin calls on their large
DDs
ditto, the system is great and makes a profit 99% of time. What
is important is the trade size dedicated to entries 1 and 2. These
make the most entries and profit. But occasionally every
couple of years there are black swans (2 in 2018) and it is these
events that require risk management. AS STEVE and MATT have
constantly said, don't trade all of your acct in spy system.
I have allotted 10% of my spy acct to entry 1. 15% to entry 2. 20%
to entry 3. ETC because entries 3 to 5 far less
frequent (some only occur every few years) I will leave that
reserve $$ in the spy and use Matt's 120 min system to get out and
have that cash available for the black swan event at lower levels.
The draw downs for entry 4 and 5 are a lot less. Thanks Matt
for the great systems and please keep them going. It is the correct
allocation of trade size to entry 1 and 2 that matter in the long
run. And if is makes a loss once every ten years, it is more than
made up for by the 70% average annual gain by the appropriate
modest entry size for entry 1 and 2.
$SPX Weekly with some Fibs from Dec 18 lows. 50% fib comes
in close to the 100 week sma. 61% at previous areas of
support if get down that low in time. Sept 2018 top is now
far below. es got down that far after the bell
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$SPX monthly held trend line
Posted by elliotw on 13th of Mar 2020 at 05:15 pm
$SPX monthly held trend line so far
thanks for chart, I guess
What if the bull weren't dead ???
Posted by elliotw on 13th of Mar 2020 at 07:57 am
thanks for chart, I guess we have to stay above the dec18 low to maintain a longer term bullish bias?
Fib Extension 1.38 has played
Posted by elliotw on 9th of Mar 2020 at 04:45 pm
Fib Extension 1.38 has played out. Ext started from 1942 to 1974 lows. picked 1987, 2000, 2007, 2015 and now Feb/March 2020
Stocks above 50 sma now
Posted by elliotw on 8th of Mar 2020 at 03:57 am
Stocks above 50 sma now showing very low readings and positive div. Similar positive div on 20R, 50R and 200R for nasdaq, NYA and SPX (Also positive div on $nymo.) ($NYA advancing issues/NYA total issue.)
May get a final market washout next week with positive div building in a number of breadth indicators
$SPX weekly Weekly now at potential
Posted by elliotw on 8th of Mar 2020 at 01:02 am
$SPX weekly
Weekly now at potential support at top of Cloud.
Potential Target at 200sma weekly @ 2636 and bottom of Cloud
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=8&mn=10&dy=0&id=p87692650025&a=725936340&listNum=88
$USB yearly price channel. Bounced
Posted by elliotw on 8th of Mar 2020 at 12:56 am
$USB yearly price channel. Bounced off bottom TL in 2018 now nearly at the top of channel. Very fast move up. May reach the top TL in 2020
Nice chart showing possible wave
I was in Havana for the last week and it's ...
Posted by elliotw on 7th of Mar 2020 at 08:14 pm
Nice chart showing possible wave patterns
That’s cool. Have now circulated
Coronavirus outbreak may have unleashed Twinkie buying spree. what ever ...
Posted by elliotw on 6th of Mar 2020 at 04:32 am
That’s cool. Have now circulated the twinkies clip to go viral around Australia!!
thanks Matt for DDs. Excellent.
SPY reversion to mean stats table I promised
Posted by elliotw on 3rd of Mar 2020 at 08:36 pm
thanks Matt for DDs. Excellent. These are very important if trading es. To manage the trades and position sizes avoid margin calls!!
$Vix touched multi year resistance
Posted by elliotw on 2nd of Mar 2020 at 04:24 pm
$Vix touched multi year resistance level
$vix back inside BB, Buy
Posted by elliotw on 2nd of Mar 2020 at 04:22 pm
$vix back inside BB, Buy signal, unless we get a whipsaw move
$nymo below BB for 4
Posted by elliotw on 2nd of Mar 2020 at 04:17 pm
$nymo below BB for 4 days was a clue for the rebound as stated in newsletter
Great matt, Having them at
Here's some thoughts on the reversion to mean system trades
Posted by elliotw on 2nd of Mar 2020 at 04:11 pm
Great matt, Having them at each entry level would be great if possible?
I have analysed the spy system over 25 years and have draw down statistics for each entry, but as the spy systems as a whole not the individual systems at each entry level. Like entry 3 have a max DD of 4.85%. Entry 4 about 2.85% max. I have planned my entry capital allotment based on these DDs. Beware of es futures trades on entries 1 and 2 as can get Margin calls on their large DDs
$SPX from 1940. Fib Extensions
Posted by elliotw on 28th of Feb 2020 at 11:02 pm
$SPX from 1940. Fib Extensions from the 1942 low to the 1974 low
Marks market turns timing exceptionally well.
Has predicted the timing of 1987, 2000,2007, 2015 and 2020 Tops. But not the magnitude of the reaction
( I found this posted on utube several weeks ago)
this chart was posted by
$SPX monthly non log scalethis trend line from 2009 low, ...
Posted by elliotw on 28th of Feb 2020 at 08:29 pm
this chart was posted by an analyst on utube 3 weeks ago. Many tags to the line.
$SPX monthly non log scale this
Posted by elliotw on 28th of Feb 2020 at 07:17 pm
$SPX monthly non log scale
this trend line from 2009 low, was touched again last week, BOOM!!!
ditto, the system is great
Here's some thoughts on the reversion to mean system trades
Posted by elliotw on 28th of Feb 2020 at 04:59 pm
ditto, the system is great and makes a profit 99% of time. What is important is the trade size dedicated to entries 1 and 2. These make the most entries and profit. But occasionally every couple of years there are black swans (2 in 2018) and it is these events that require risk management. AS STEVE and MATT have constantly said, don't trade all of your acct in spy system. I have allotted 10% of my spy acct to entry 1. 15% to entry 2. 20% to entry 3. ETC because entries 3 to 5 far less frequent (some only occur every few years) I will leave that reserve $$ in the spy and use Matt's 120 min system to get out and have that cash available for the black swan event at lower levels. The draw downs for entry 4 and 5 are a lot less. Thanks Matt for the great systems and please keep them going. It is the correct allocation of trade size to entry 1 and 2 that matter in the long run. And if is makes a loss once every ten years, it is more than made up for by the 70% average annual gain by the appropriate modest entry size for entry 1 and 2.
es low overnight 2879, es
Posted by elliotw on 28th of Feb 2020 at 08:25 am
es low overnight 2879, es high jan 2018 2878...close enough for government work!!
$SPX Weekly with some Fibs
Posted by elliotw on 27th of Feb 2020 at 09:36 pm
$SPX Weekly with some Fibs from Dec 18 lows. 50% fib comes in close to the 100 week sma. 61% at previous areas of support if get down that low in time. Sept 2018 top is now far below. es got down that far after the bell
nice chart
spy ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, for entertainment purposes
Posted by elliotw on 27th of Feb 2020 at 08:57 pm
nice chart