Posted by wmlafleur on 20th of Mar 2009 at 10:55 am
Placing stops depends on your style and risk tolerance. I tend
to limit my losses and place tight stops at entry. If I'm wrong, so
be it, sell for a small loss and move on. There's always another
trade. The best risk management, is a good entry to the trade. Once
the trade moves in my direction, I look to take profits at logical
points; like new highs/or lows (based on the timeframe I'm
trading), Fib retracements, indicator crosses, or just % gain. As
the price reaches a target, I'll place a trailing stop with a small
margin (.10 to .25 cents). That way, if the price is still running,
I may capture more upside without giving up much of the gain. I
always move my hard stops up from entry to, again, limit downside.
Find something you're comfortable with, refine, then stick with it.
Interesting explanation of Leveraged ETF math (from
Briefing.com)...
The leveraged ETFs are terrible long term investments on the
long side because they tend to drift lower. Let me explain. Let's
just say the IYR and the SRS (2x inverse of IYR) are both at $10
(for ease of math). One day, the IYR goes from $10 to $9, so the
SRS goes from $10 to $12. All well and good. But then, if the IYR
goes back from $9 to $10 the next day it is climbing 11.11%...
which means the SRS drops 22.22% from $12, leaving it at $9.36. As
long as the underlying goes in the same direction each day it works
as it should, but as soon as you enter a period of chop in the
underlying, the leveraged ETF starts to drop because of the math of
how it moves. A lot of people got sucked into these leveraged ETFs
thinking they would simply add leverage to the moves without having
any other effect. Think of this too. Let's say the IYG/XLF falls to
$2 as the financial system implodes causing the SKF to skyrocket to
$200 or something like that. Then the Fed comes out and announces
some program that causes the XLF to gap up to $3 (50% gain) the
next day, the SKF would, theroetically, go instantly from $200 to
$0.
Posted by wmlafleur on 13th of Nov 2008 at 02:10 pm
So is it just me or does it seem like Bush doesn't have a clue
what he's talking about when he goes on about the markets and the
financial crisis? He just has that blank look in his
eyes.
When he sits in on that summit to discuss world finances, I'm
sure his 'handelers' are just an earpiece away tutoring him on
Finance 101.
Posted by wmlafleur on 12th of Nov 2008 at 08:46 pm
UnReal!!! Up 26% today. That's playing catch up pretty quick!!
Looks like some resistance at the daily 50 sma around 117. But
sto's and MACD on the daily turning up with good vol. A push to the
fib 50 from the recent low takes it to about 133. Looks like a good
place for some profit taking. (long at 93).
Posted by wmlafleur on 30th of Oct 2008 at 11:26 am
So is this paint ever going to dry?
What's everyone's bias on how this is going to settle out
today/this week? The S&P 5min is forming a somewhat rare
Diamond Pattern...so it would appear that the fight between bulls
and bears will continue until it's worked out.
Posted by wmlafleur on 24th of Oct 2008 at 10:23 am
Using Fibs on a 5min, as you indicated, SKF and SMN bounced
right on the 61.8% retrace from the gap up. You gotta love those
numbers. I used that to buy back in to positions sold
yesterday.
Posted by wmlafleur on 14th of Oct 2008 at 11:42 am
I'm with you rp, I subscribed to Wavespeak for a time. Learned a
lot about wave theory, but was frustrated by the 'recounts'. Just
when you thought it was OK to trade off a completed wave pattern,
it's violated and subject to change. I like it for the very long
term (really liked seeing the SuperCycle count) but not the
short.
Posted by wmlafleur on 10th of Oct 2008 at 10:33 am
Wouldn't it be a crack up if Bush came out like Cramer,
pounding the table and yelling "You gotta buy this market...this is
your big shot". Then he starts throwing out names. I for one would
respect him more for doing that than coming out with the same
retoric.
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I Agree! Lot's of detail.
Dow 5 min
Posted by wmlafleur on 26th of Mar 2009 at 03:45 pm
I Agree! Lot's of detail.
AA seems to fit your
one thing I mentioned last night were that many of ...
Posted by wmlafleur on 20th of Mar 2009 at 11:09 am
AA seems to fit your scenario too. Long base and vol surge.
Placing stops depends on your
SPX 5 min.png SPX 5 min with Tick.png QQQQ 15 min chart.png remember ...
Posted by wmlafleur on 20th of Mar 2009 at 10:55 am
Placing stops depends on your style and risk tolerance. I tend to limit my losses and place tight stops at entry. If I'm wrong, so be it, sell for a small loss and move on. There's always another trade. The best risk management, is a good entry to the trade. Once the trade moves in my direction, I look to take profits at logical points; like new highs/or lows (based on the timeframe I'm trading), Fib retracements, indicator crosses, or just % gain. As the price reaches a target, I'll place a trailing stop with a small margin (.10 to .25 cents). That way, if the price is still running, I may capture more upside without giving up much of the gain. I always move my hard stops up from entry to, again, limit downside. Find something you're comfortable with, refine, then stick with it.
Leveraged ETF's
Posted by wmlafleur on 18th of Mar 2009 at 10:28 am
Interesting explanation of Leveraged ETF math (from Briefing.com)...
The leveraged ETFs are terrible long term investments on the long side because they tend to drift lower. Let me explain. Let's just say the IYR and the SRS (2x inverse of IYR) are both at $10 (for ease of math). One day, the IYR goes from $10 to $9, so the SRS goes from $10 to $12. All well and good. But then, if the IYR goes back from $9 to $10 the next day it is climbing 11.11%... which means the SRS drops 22.22% from $12, leaving it at $9.36. As long as the underlying goes in the same direction each day it works as it should, but as soon as you enter a period of chop in the underlying, the leveraged ETF starts to drop because of the math of how it moves. A lot of people got sucked into these leveraged ETFs thinking they would simply add leverage to the moves without having any other effect. Think of this too. Let's say the IYG/XLF falls to $2 as the financial system implodes causing the SKF to skyrocket to $200 or something like that. Then the Fed comes out and announces some program that causes the XLF to gap up to $3 (50% gain) the next day, the SKF would, theroetically, go instantly from $200 to $0.
Short Covering
Posted by wmlafleur on 6th of Mar 2009 at 04:02 pm
2.5% pop in the last 1/2 hr.At this level, looks like shorts don't want to take on any "event risk" going into the weekend.
SPX 842
bearis count 15 min chart
Posted by wmlafleur on 14th of Jan 2009 at 10:24 am
The 50% Fib retracement from the Nov low to the Jan high comes in around SPX 842. That should find support.
Bush
Posted by wmlafleur on 13th of Nov 2008 at 02:10 pm
So is it just me or does it seem like Bush doesn't have a clue what he's talking about when he goes on about the markets and the financial crisis? He just has that blank look in his eyes.
When he sits in on that summit to discuss world finances, I'm sure his 'handelers' are just an earpiece away tutoring him on Finance 101.
EEV
EEV
Posted by wmlafleur on 13th of Nov 2008 at 01:11 pm
I'm still in for the ride. Almost was stopped out this a.m., but held on. Looking for about 119 then about 133. With stops at 106.
EEV
SPX
Posted by wmlafleur on 12th of Nov 2008 at 08:46 pm
UnReal!!! Up 26% today. That's playing catch up pretty quick!! Looks like some resistance at the daily 50 sma around 117. But sto's and MACD on the daily turning up with good vol. A push to the fib 50 from the recent low takes it to about 133. Looks like a good place for some profit taking. (long at 93).
Market Direction
Posted by wmlafleur on 30th of Oct 2008 at 11:26 am
So is this paint ever going to dry?
What's everyone's bias on how this is going to settle out today/this week? The S&P 5min is forming a somewhat rare Diamond Pattern...so it would appear that the fight between bulls and bears will continue until it's worked out.
looks like DIG filled that
DUG/DIG
Posted by wmlafleur on 29th of Oct 2008 at 10:46 am
looks like DIG filled that gap from 10/21 at 33.63.
SKF, SMN
Posted by wmlafleur on 24th of Oct 2008 at 10:23 am
Using Fibs on a 5min, as you indicated, SKF and SMN bounced right on the 61.8% retrace from the gap up. You gotta love those numbers. I used that to buy back in to positions sold yesterday.
Matt, are you using DIA,
Please note:
Posted by wmlafleur on 23rd of Oct 2008 at 10:50 am
Matt, are you using DIA, DXD or DDM to trade off the Dow signal? Also, does it work the same looking at the DIA?
RIMM
Posted by wmlafleur on 20th of Oct 2008 at 10:29 am
From Briefing earlier...
Research In Motion: Hearing RIMMdowngraded at First Global to Market Perform (59.01 )
I'm with you rp, I
Posted by wmlafleur on 14th of Oct 2008 at 11:42 am
I'm with you rp, I subscribed to Wavespeak for a time. Learned a lot about wave theory, but was frustrated by the 'recounts'. Just when you thought it was OK to trade off a completed wave pattern, it's violated and subject to change. I like it for the very long term (really liked seeing the SuperCycle count) but not the short.
Europe
Posted by wmlafleur on 13th of Oct 2008 at 11:48 am
Europe held on to their gains.
European Markets Closing Prices: FTSE: 4210.9 +278.9 +7.1%, DAX: 5034.4 +490.1 +10.8%, CAC: 3484.0 +307.5 +9.7%
Wouldn't it be a crack
Posted by wmlafleur on 10th of Oct 2008 at 10:33 am
Wouldn't it be a crack up if Bush came out like Cramer, pounding the table and yelling "You gotta buy this market...this is your big shot". Then he starts throwing out names. I for one would respect him more for doing that than coming out with the same retoric.
QQQQ
symetric triangle on the spx
Posted by wmlafleur on 7th of Oct 2008 at 03:29 pm
Q's holding after test of support (S1 37.20). In QLD for bounce into close with tight stop below recent low.
Many a hammer being formed
Posted by wmlafleur on 6th of Oct 2008 at 04:05 pm
Many a hammer being formed on daily's. VRSN, NSC, PCLN, XOM, GS, PBR, RIMM, UA, OSTK
VIX
Posted by wmlafleur on 29th of Sep 2008 at 02:16 pm
VIX hits all time high at 46.28. Volitility reigns!!