thats where euro began to give way...at least we are not up 50 pts this a.m....

should we go down TZA, EDZ, DRV..favorites..shorting real estate makes sense

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/asiapac_currencies.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/30/business/global/30dubai.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1259514007-RSc88gQJC+LsJ5pEsVJ5rw

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we fear that this

news might be the news that tends to push equities

around the world over the edge; that brings on a trend

toward global protectionism and that pushes the US

dollar materially higher… and perhaps violently so. We

hope we are wrong; indeed, we pray that we are

terribly so, but we fear that we are not. The long

Thanksgiving holiday will give everyone the chance to

collectively breathe and consider what has happened

in the Gulf. Perhaps cooler heads shall prevail as the

next several days pass, and perhaps this situation will

simply devolve into memory and into nothing; but we

fear that this is a far larger story than it appears even

this morning and if it is we may be surprised by how

strong the dollar becomes…and how swiftly it does so.

We said these things yesterday. We meant them then

and we mean them even more this morning. All other

concerns are secondary today. Dubai is centre stage,

and well it should be.

http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14996669

Japan's concern about devaluing the yen is deflation for them and other countries

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfe89m8qqoI

makes point to short the $kbx bank index

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSWSwhn-AWc

will dollar become reserve currency..

dubai's 60 billion real estate probelm..doesn't seem on the surface to be able to rattle the markets . .the Euro should take a hit. but will that be enough to start the ball rolling on the dollar.? i feel the boys at BPT saw something significant the last day or so...Prechter going 200% short. i don't believe in coincidences..

 we live in interesting times..

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/27/rashomon-in-the-desert/

krugman offers 3 choices..but he thinks DOWN

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/26/dubai-request-for-debt-st_n_371852.html

the dubai details

i m guessing...and mostly eye balling these two etf's..which is fodder for conversation on a lazy friday evening..however that being said..as a pure return on dollars..i m guessing if things go our way i can earn 33% on EDZ which would be about $7.50 BEFORE i can earn the same on TZA which would need to go to about $16.00....either way were both winners..but which one will get there first?

now i ll make another drink ..take the edge further off..

IWM did not...my prior post was snipped..but my thought was i would get $2.00 on EDZ and as a percentage i might be more profitable than TZA..

80 billion or so doesn't seem like enough to cause such financial stress today in the markets.  it does however seem it will weaken the Euro..which is what is really behind all the drama..a rise in the dollar will screw the AUY/USD or AUD/JPY carry trade and there will be a rush to cover.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ai9qojctV7q4

u could see this price on the open Monday...got puts...? listening to Matt over this past year..his clear calming cautionary voice .. versus todays update ..well, seems to me quite a contrast ..it will seem ironic we blame the next leg down in the markets on the Arabs. the chart of EDZ looks like a winner..but many short etf's look similar. good trading to all...

certainly not SMH..or XLF or IYR..or IWM...

with dollar tanking...xlf is going nowhere...could it be a dollar bottom in the making...u would expect dow up 100+ points..happy turkey...

but its part of the carry trade along with JPY..

Bloomberg offers up at times some pertinent info...esp early in the a.m...so this seems like an un-equivacal statement..no quarantees ..i ll be dissappointed should this statement fail to play out...good trading...bloomberg now offering insights into the markets..made a statement this a.m.  EURJPY is unwinding of the carry trade..

It’s also possible to count Monday’s highs—1112.25 in the E-mini, 1113.68 in the S&P cash and 10,438.20 in

the DJIA (yesterday)— as marking the end of the five-wave rise from November 12. This interpretation will

be confirmed if each index breaks their recent swing lows; 1100 in the E-mini, 1102.18 in the S&P cash and

10,360 in the DJIA. In the case of the S&P indexes, a break of these cited levels would eliminate the triangle

formation shown on our charts, thereby indicating that wave v was already in place. As for the DJIA, a break

of its level (10,360) would eliminate its fourth wave flat. Since wave four is already “large” relative to the

corresponding second wave, a break would all but eliminate any remaining bullish potential and indicate that

prices were heading lower immediately, without pushing higher one last time.