re: we're in a bear market, good point. I had an order to
short ready to go on the open this a.m., but missed it thinking we
would bounce a bit more on the open. I think a lot of folks
drank the Fed Kool Aid and got scared off from shorting.
Looks like the no short rule backfired today. Could see a
real slide soon as there aren't many shorts to cover on financials
to make a usual bottom and rebound. These Fed clowns may have
opened the trap door into the abyss.
I think gold got pulled to it's high today by the bs with the
front month oil contract that hit 130 at one point. I tend to
think they both made short term tops today. Dollar also
tested 76 area.
the nearby oil contract October that expires today is up $20,
Nov contract becomes the active front month tomorrow and is only up
about $6. some of that move may be due to the $20 move in the
October. I've seen oil make substantial tops several times on
expiration day, got caught in a short squeeze like this once
myself, though it wasn't the $20 variety. I was looking at
shorting USO today but it didn't get pulled up that much, trading
more in line with November crude. Could have scalped over a
buck though off the short, I expect it will be down more
tomorrow.
Oil spike likely due to contract expiration today, traders are
going long and forcing short covering as contract closes out today.
That from CNBC, but it makes some sense. Probably turn back down
tomorrow if that's true. Oil stocks via (XLE) not buying it much,
but DOW down 250 is probably dragging them down....
No doubt the weak dollar is a partial factor in oil rise
seems USO may be a good short overnight with Nov contract
trading almost $10 lower.
re: SKF, just talked to proshares and they explained.
Price set to NAV of 85 on Friday even though it closed at 100, so
today it's basically up over 10% based on that. For now it's
trading like a closed end fund since they can't make new shares for
now. You can get the accurate percentage gain loss
based on Friday closing NAV using symbol $SKF.IV on Ameritrade, or
$UYG.IV
What's up with SKF now? It's down 3%, should be up 10%
based on XLF down 5%. UWM also whacked out, but more
accurate, it's down 4% but should be down more like 10%
re: Ameritrade MM, I assume that's just the Reserve MM Fund, and
they only have a few clients in that. They quit using reserve
funds for the most part other than the Reserve Treasury fund
several months ago.
Abelson makes a good point in Barrons this weekend;
After the RTC was set up in 1989, he notes, it took two years
for the economy to turn around, three years for housing to recover
and a year for the stock market to bottom.
rp, keep posting, I'm enjoying your thinking on
this. I think there is a strong chance we've topped today,
lot of resistance right above today's high based on this chart.
SKF inverse UYG is still trading, somewhat surprised by
that. You should be able to short UYG and get the same affect
as long SKF. I've been saying shorting the 2x long funds is a
safer play, looks like that turned out to be right
re: SKF issues, is it safer to short the long funds, UYG in that
case or SSO for the S&P? Seems if they collapse from
counterparty risk, short could actually benefit.
XLF up 21% as pointed out, SKF down 24%, should be more like 40%
relative to XLF? However, UNG the 2x long financial etf is up
26% so for some reason the 2x funds aren't performing. Are
they subject to new shorting rules and could that be skewing
prices?
When the market rolls back over from this relief rally on these
desperate measures, question may be, "sell to who"? There
won't be many shorts to cover and help make a bottom.
To me this increases liklihood of eventual market meltdown.
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re: we're in a bear
Picks
Posted by trade on 22nd of Sep 2008 at 11:00 pm
re: we're in a bear market, good point. I had an order to short ready to go on the open this a.m., but missed it thinking we would bounce a bit more on the open. I think a lot of folks drank the Fed Kool Aid and got scared off from shorting. Looks like the no short rule backfired today. Could see a real slide soon as there aren't many shorts to cover on financials to make a usual bottom and rebound. These Fed clowns may have opened the trap door into the abyss.
I think gold got pulled
SMC chart
Posted by trade on 22nd of Sep 2008 at 03:08 pm
I think gold got pulled to it's high today by the bs with the front month oil contract that hit 130 at one point. I tend to think they both made short term tops today. Dollar also tested 76 area.
the nearby oil contract October
Posted by trade on 22nd of Sep 2008 at 02:50 pm
the nearby oil contract October that expires today is up $20, Nov contract becomes the active front month tomorrow and is only up about $6. some of that move may be due to the $20 move in the October. I've seen oil make substantial tops several times on expiration day, got caught in a short squeeze like this once myself, though it wasn't the $20 variety. I was looking at shorting USO today but it didn't get pulled up that much, trading more in line with November crude. Could have scalped over a buck though off the short, I expect it will be down more tomorrow.
Oil spike likely due to
Posted by trade on 22nd of Sep 2008 at 02:17 pm
Oil spike likely due to contract expiration today, traders are going long and forcing short covering as contract closes out today. That from CNBC, but it makes some sense. Probably turn back down tomorrow if that's true. Oil stocks via (XLE) not buying it much, but DOW down 250 is probably dragging them down....
No doubt the weak dollar is a partial factor in oil rise
seems USO may be a good short overnight with Nov contract trading almost $10 lower.
good call rp, GDX also
Posted by trade on 22nd of Sep 2008 at 12:42 pm
good call rp, GDX also filled a gap from August today on the daily chart
re: SKF, just talked to
Posted by trade on 22nd of Sep 2008 at 10:57 am
re: SKF, just talked to proshares and they explained. Price set to NAV of 85 on Friday even though it closed at 100, so today it's basically up over 10% based on that. For now it's trading like a closed end fund since they can't make new shares for now. You can get the accurate percentage gain loss based on Friday closing NAV using symbol $SKF.IV on Ameritrade, or $UYG.IV
What's up with SKF now?
ruling on SFK
Posted by trade on 22nd of Sep 2008 at 10:31 am
What's up with SKF now? It's down 3%, should be up 10% based on XLF down 5%. UWM also whacked out, but more accurate, it's down 4% but should be down more like 10%
Seems a lot of folks
Posted by trade on 22nd of Sep 2008 at 09:49 am
Seems a lot of folks are drinking the government kool aid and thinking a bottom is in stocks. I doubt it....
re: Ameritrade MM, I assume
Ameritrade MM Hold
Posted by trade on 22nd of Sep 2008 at 08:47 am
re: Ameritrade MM, I assume that's just the Reserve MM Fund, and they only have a few clients in that. They quit using reserve funds for the most part other than the Reserve Treasury fund several months ago.
Abelson makes a good point
Posted by trade on 21st of Sep 2008 at 10:01 am
Abelson makes a good point in Barrons this weekend; After the RTC was set up in 1989, he notes, it took two years for the economy to turn around, three years for housing to recover and a year for the stock market to bottom.
I noticed the weird action
SSO
Posted by trade on 19th of Sep 2008 at 05:53 pm
I noticed the weird action in SSO and in SDS, what's going on there?
spx16.gif rp, keep posting, I'm enjoying
Posted by trade on 19th of Sep 2008 at 02:15 pm
rp, keep posting, I'm enjoying your thinking on this. I think there is a strong chance we've topped today, lot of resistance right above today's high based on this chart.
spx16.gif SPX chart, looks like it's
Posted by trade on 19th of Sep 2008 at 12:36 pm
S&P attemting retest of the
Posted by trade on 19th of Sep 2008 at 12:16 pm
S&P attemting retest of the highs, might take a short there with a stop 1265 area. What's your read?
SKF inverse UYG is still
SKF
Posted by trade on 19th of Sep 2008 at 11:39 am
SKF inverse UYG is still trading, somewhat surprised by that. You should be able to short UYG and get the same affect as long SKF. I've been saying shorting the 2x long funds is a safer play, looks like that turned out to be right
re: SKF issues, is it
Posted by trade on 19th of Sep 2008 at 10:51 am
re: SKF issues, is it safer to short the long funds, UYG in that case or SSO for the S&P? Seems if they collapse from counterparty risk, short could actually benefit.
Why is SKF halted?
Posted by trade on 19th of Sep 2008 at 10:26 am
Why is SKF halted?
XLF up 21% as pointed
Posted by trade on 19th of Sep 2008 at 09:24 am
XLF up 21% as pointed out, SKF down 24%, should be more like 40% relative to XLF? However, UNG the 2x long financial etf is up 26% so for some reason the 2x funds aren't performing. Are they subject to new shorting rules and could that be skewing prices?
re: XLF is up 20%
XLF/SKF
Posted by trade on 19th of Sep 2008 at 09:10 am
re: XLF is up 20% but the SKF is only down 22- how do you explain that, which one is wrong? Is there a trade there?
When the market rolls back
Goverment Unbelieveable
Posted by trade on 18th of Sep 2008 at 08:55 pm
When the market rolls back over from this relief rally on these desperate measures, question may be, "sell to who"? There won't be many shorts to cover and help make a bottom. To me this increases liklihood of eventual market meltdown.