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California going over the cliff

Posted by randy on 28th of Dec 2012 at 09:40 am

You had better enjoy cold weather and snow if thinking of the areas you mention.

Federal Spending

The following table will show without a doubt the purported "revenue problem" in Congress, is without a doubt really an "out of control spending problem".

Problem in a Nutshell

Average salaries are up 44%.
US spending is up 112%.

If anyone follows MDY, there is a potential divergence setting up on 60 min charts and previous resistance around 183 on daily . Feels like we will muddle along here today waiting for news, news trumps charts.

interesting article from Sy Harding

Posted by randy on 28th of Nov 2012 at 04:33 pm

By Sy Harding 11/28/2012

Fed Chairman Bernanke has been pounding the table publicly and privately, stressing how important it is that Congress reach an agreement preventing the economy from going over the fiscal cliff at year-end. You’ve seen the numbers estimating the impact on the already anemic economy.

But here’s the chart that’s keeping Bernanke awake at night, the Fed’s own Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI).

This is no simplistic indicator thrown together by an analyst trying to promote his opinion through data-mining for data to support his pre-conceived notions.

The CFNAI is an index comprised of 85 established economic indicators and trends drawn from all areas of the economy. It was first compiled in 1967 and has a remarkable record for identifying early on when the economy has entered a recession.

The numbers are reported monthly. A positive level for the index indicates the economy is growing, while a negative number indicates the economy is slowing.

The index has been of concern for a while. The monthly reading of the index was in negative territory for five consecutive months before improving to the flat-line at 0.0 in September.

Unfortunately, that improvement lasted only one month. The report this week shows a sizable drop to -0.56 in October.

More ominously, its more important 3-month moving average also dropped to -0.56 in October from -0.36 in September. It was its 8 ^thstraight month of negative readings, and getting ominously close to the -0.70 level the Fed considers “an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun.” It is the solid line in the Fed’s chart.

The index has only dropped beneath the recession warning level of -0.7 eight times since 1967. That was in 1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1989, 1990, 2001, and 2008. Each time the economy was indeed in a serious slowdown, usually a recession, and seven of those eight times the stock market was already in a bear market or soon rolled over into one. The most recent occasions were in 2001 and 2008, certainly not pleasant memories for the country.

The financial media and investors don’t pay much attention to the CFNAI, and most of the time it is not of much importance.

But with the 3-month moving average in negative territory for 8 straight months, and now at -0.56, so perilously close to -0.70, it should have everyone’s attention.

That goes double for politicians in Washington, their own positions and financial health assured, squabbling over how much to care about the fiscal cliff and the rest of the country.

GGN and GNT getting crushed

Posted by randy on 15th of Nov 2012 at 11:07 am

GGN and GNT getting crushed the last two days. I wonder if the monthly distribution rates will be changed.

On the day we salute

Posted by randy on 12th of Nov 2012 at 08:06 pm

On the day we salute our veterans, you owe it to yourself to watch the PBS program

"National Salute to Veterans ". It is very moving.

I know the storm is

Posted by randy on 29th of Oct 2012 at 08:14 pm

I know the storm is bad for a lot of people , I live in upstate NY and it is barely raining here and I do not think I could fly a kite if I wanted to. A few miles north and the wind is brutal. We are very fortunate.

SLW was up 3 %

Silver stocks ready to explode!

Posted by randy on 23rd of Oct 2012 at 08:47 am

SLW was up 3 % yesterday while SLV was up 1 %, SLW near their high

BOIL trying to get past

Posted by randy on 11th of Oct 2012 at 10:39 am

BOIL trying to get past previous resistance on nat gas report

Does anyone have any information/opinion

Posted by randy on 5th of Oct 2012 at 08:55 am

Does anyone have any information/opinion on buying GNT rather than GGN. GGN is supposedly cutting the distribution rate from .14 to .12 per month. No word if GNT will do the same.