If I recall correctly, a little before the 2008 Olympics, there
was a lot of power shortages in china, and SVM experienced
rationing which caused a big drop in their prices. They learnt
their lesson and bought their own generators enabling them to go
off the grid. I don't remember the exact time of that though.
The charts could be read as an almost perfect H&S taking it
down to Zero.
the company claims allegations are false and is sitting on a ton
of cash with potentially buying another 8 million shares back. 26
million shares are currently short (that is 13% of the
company).
The charts could also be a bullish falling wedge, potentially
doubling the price from here.
so far, the price has recovered substantially, but grossly
underperfomring other miners and silver.
Posted by mamaduck on 30th of Aug 2011 at 08:29 pm
This concerns me too. The put premiums have not come down as
much as they should - given the rise in the stock. I was trying to
sell some puts yesterday hoping to cash in on a short squeeze, but
premiums just don't want to budge.
On the other hand, with 6% of the company short, the naked
shorts could be having a hand in this to avoid a squeeze, or to
drive prices down. There is always also the possibility of a
hostile takeover in the works to drive prices down and try to buy
out the weak hands.
On the third hand, the company has been aggressively buying back
its own shares and retiring them...
check out this
Finally, on the fourth hand, the major mines of this company are
in China, and if the Chinese sovereign fund is behind any of this,
then there is no telling...
Posted by mamaduck on 29th of Aug 2011 at 11:55 am
SVM- silver company, sitting on a ton of cash.
Buying back 10M shares. So far they have bought back 1.6 million.
9.6 million short interest (represents over 5% of the company)
First of all, my apologies if I gave the impression that the
50-50 was mandated. Historically it has been a general target and
approach, but because of the price fluctuations, if they mandate
it, then they would have to enter active trading, which defies the
whole point of CEF.
Also as of the prospectus of
the last offering, (see page 10) the board
has authorized approximately 50 oz of silver for every oz of gold
(just as you stated - and I stand corrected). These are for new
purchases resulting from issuance of shares. I am sure as the ratio
changes in favor of silver, the future new issues will reflect that
change.
Also the pie chart on the last page is somewhat distorted. If
you look at the silver portion, it says 50.2% but it shows a less
than 1/2 segment.
Plus if you take the silver and gold prices as of Jan 31, they
were 1334.50, and 28.17. If you then multiply it by the oz in that
report, you will see that there is about $11 million more silver
than gold.
Also on that date, the gold:silver ratio was 47.37, but the pie
chart assumes 50 - which perhaps accounts for the distortion.
Finally, if you look at the NAV figures from yesterday, you will
see that the CEF holdings ratio is 45.4 compared to the price ratio
of 44.46, while there is about $8 million more silver than gold, or
roughly 0.2% more silver than gold, which is well within the weekly
fluctuations of the ratio.
Posted by mamaduck on 17th of Aug 2011 at 02:28 pm
That is correct cufuzzy. Currently CEF has roughly 45 oz of
silver for every oz of gold, which matches the gold silver ratio
(as of yesterday, it was 44.84 or approx. 45)
Now,when you translate it into dollars, they have about 1/2 the
assets in dollar terms in each metal - which I understand to be
their overall philosophy.
My understanding is that every time CEF issues some shares and
raises fund, they purchase physical bullion to add to their
holdings. They purchase gold with 1/2 of the dollars raised,
and silver with the other half. If the gold:silver ratio happens to
be 60, then the raise adds 60 oz of silver for every oz of gold. If
the ratio is 40, then this amount translates to 40:1.
The fact that the NAV page currently shows equal percentage of
gold and silver in dollar terms is purely coincidental and entirely
dependent on the price of gold and silver.
They hold a small portion of their holdings in cash and in paper
gold/silver, mainly because they need to cover expenses, and they
issue a small dividend (which qualifies them to be purchased by
many institutional and pension funds).
As they are a closed end fund, the share prices trade either at
a premium or discount. Over the last few years, average premium has
been around 8-10%. Every time the premium exceeds 12-14%, they
issue more shares to make use of the premium, and raise more funds
to buy bullion with. Their share issuance has always
been accretive to shareholders.
Over the last few months, they have been trading at close to
zero premiums and occasionally at a discount. If I recall
correctly, a couple of months ago, they traded at 8% discount for a
few hours (a trade that I missed).
The best time to buy them is when they are trading at a
discount, but be warned that that is a rare event in this bull
market.
A sure trade would be when they are traded at a deep discount
(again very rare), to go long CEF, short GLD.
Unlike the other ETF's, they have been in business for decades
and have a very astute and long-term oriented management.
The bullion is held in Canada (outside the reach of the US
government).
On a separate note, as you are probably aware, GLD is a much
better trading vehicle as it tracks gold price closely, and it has
options. But it should not be used as an investment vehicle because
of the real &/or perceived issues with their custodial
relationships.
Posted by mamaduck on 14th of Aug 2011 at 02:42 pm
According to Jim Puplava of Financial Sense, Ben has many more
bullets left. He is now just fired bullet 4 of 7. He is working on
the long end of the yield curve to generate inflation. If this does
not work, the next stage would be massive dollar devaluation FDR
style.
IMO, if Jim is correct, we probably have about 3-6 months to buy
all the gold and real estate we want before they take off. Yes,
real estate, especially if it is mortgaged with long term fixed
rates.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
SVM
Hey Mamaduck
Posted by mamaduck on 2nd of Sep 2011 at 12:11 pm
Thank you hamvestor. Either there is going to be a massive short-covering soon to come, or this could smell of Bre-X... Do you remember that...
Maybe a good strategy here is to buy shares and puts at the same time... will probably offer good RR.
SVM
Hey Mamaduck
Posted by mamaduck on 2nd of Sep 2011 at 11:33 am
If I recall correctly, a little before the 2008 Olympics, there was a lot of power shortages in china, and SVM experienced rationing which caused a big drop in their prices. They learnt their lesson and bought their own generators enabling them to go off the grid. I don't remember the exact time of that though.
SVM
Hey Mamaduck
Posted by mamaduck on 2nd of Sep 2011 at 10:31 am
The news is now out... allegations of fraud
The charts could be read as an almost perfect H&S taking it down to Zero.
the company claims allegations are false and is sitting on a ton of cash with potentially buying another 8 million shares back. 26 million shares are currently short (that is 13% of the company).
The charts could also be a bullish falling wedge, potentially doubling the price from here.
so far, the price has recovered substantially, but grossly underperfomring other miners and silver.
The saga continues...
more SVM
SVM
Posted by mamaduck on 30th of Aug 2011 at 08:49 pm
Upcoming AGM to approve shareholders' Rights Plan
Smells of potential hostile takeover...
SVM puts
SVM
Posted by mamaduck on 30th of Aug 2011 at 08:29 pm
This concerns me too. The put premiums have not come down as much as they should - given the rise in the stock. I was trying to sell some puts yesterday hoping to cash in on a short squeeze, but premiums just don't want to budge.
On the other hand, with 6% of the company short, the naked shorts could be having a hand in this to avoid a squeeze, or to drive prices down. There is always also the possibility of a hostile takeover in the works to drive prices down and try to buy out the weak hands.
On the third hand, the company has been aggressively buying back its own shares and retiring them... check out this
Finally, on the fourth hand, the major mines of this company are in China, and if the Chinese sovereign fund is behind any of this, then there is no telling...
SVM
SVM
Posted by mamaduck on 30th of Aug 2011 at 02:55 pm
glad it was helpful. This company has great fundamentals and good for long term investment - if anybody is interested. Check it out.
SVM - for bargain hunter
Posted by mamaduck on 29th of Aug 2011 at 11:55 am
SVM- silver company, sitting on a ton of cash. Buying back 10M shares. So far they have bought back 1.6 million. 9.6 million short interest (represents over 5% of the company)
http://www.silvercorpmetals.com/news/index.php?&content_id=299
Old Bernanke Speech
Old Bernanke Speech
Posted by mamaduck on 26th of Aug 2011 at 12:06 pm
Try this http://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/171649/
PNP.to
Posted by mamaduck on 25th of Aug 2011 at 09:53 pm
Or PNPFF on the pink sheets...
Last week, the company announced its intention to buy back 5 million shares. Invests in junior natural resources. Astute management, but high beta.
Currently trading at 1/2 of its net asset value as of July 31st.
CEF
CEF
Posted by mamaduck on 17th of Aug 2011 at 03:20 pm
First of all, my apologies if I gave the impression that the 50-50 was mandated. Historically it has been a general target and approach, but because of the price fluctuations, if they mandate it, then they would have to enter active trading, which defies the whole point of CEF.
Also as of the prospectus of the last offering, (see page 10) the board has authorized approximately 50 oz of silver for every oz of gold (just as you stated - and I stand corrected). These are for new purchases resulting from issuance of shares. I am sure as the ratio changes in favor of silver, the future new issues will reflect that change.
Also the pie chart on the last page is somewhat distorted. If you look at the silver portion, it says 50.2% but it shows a less than 1/2 segment.
Plus if you take the silver and gold prices as of Jan 31, they were 1334.50, and 28.17. If you then multiply it by the oz in that report, you will see that there is about $11 million more silver than gold.
Also on that date, the gold:silver ratio was 47.37, but the pie chart assumes 50 - which perhaps accounts for the distortion.
Finally, if you look at the NAV figures from yesterday, you will see that the CEF holdings ratio is 45.4 compared to the price ratio of 44.46, while there is about $8 million more silver than gold, or roughly 0.2% more silver than gold, which is well within the weekly fluctuations of the ratio.
CEF
CEF
Posted by mamaduck on 17th of Aug 2011 at 02:28 pm
That is correct cufuzzy. Currently CEF has roughly 45 oz of silver for every oz of gold, which matches the gold silver ratio (as of yesterday, it was 44.84 or approx. 45)
Now,when you translate it into dollars, they have about 1/2 the assets in dollar terms in each metal - which I understand to be their overall philosophy.
CEF
CEF
Posted by mamaduck on 17th of Aug 2011 at 12:48 pm
My understanding is that every time CEF issues some shares and raises fund, they purchase physical bullion to add to their holdings. They purchase gold with 1/2 of the dollars raised, and silver with the other half. If the gold:silver ratio happens to be 60, then the raise adds 60 oz of silver for every oz of gold. If the ratio is 40, then this amount translates to 40:1.
The fact that the NAV page currently shows equal percentage of gold and silver in dollar terms is purely coincidental and entirely dependent on the price of gold and silver.
They hold a small portion of their holdings in cash and in paper gold/silver, mainly because they need to cover expenses, and they issue a small dividend (which qualifies them to be purchased by many institutional and pension funds).
As they are a closed end fund, the share prices trade either at a premium or discount. Over the last few years, average premium has been around 8-10%. Every time the premium exceeds 12-14%, they issue more shares to make use of the premium, and raise more funds to buy bullion with. Their share issuance has always been accretive to shareholders.
Over the last few months, they have been trading at close to zero premiums and occasionally at a discount. If I recall correctly, a couple of months ago, they traded at 8% discount for a few hours (a trade that I missed).
The best time to buy them is when they are trading at a discount, but be warned that that is a rare event in this bull market.
A sure trade would be when they are traded at a deep discount (again very rare), to go long CEF, short GLD.
Unlike the other ETF's, they have been in business for decades and have a very astute and long-term oriented management.
The bullion is held in Canada (outside the reach of the US government).
On a separate note, as you are probably aware, GLD is a much better trading vehicle as it tracks gold price closely, and it has options. But it should not be used as an investment vehicle because of the real &/or perceived issues with their custodial relationships.
I hope this helps.
Bernanke playing by his book
Posted by mamaduck on 14th of Aug 2011 at 02:42 pm
According to Jim Puplava of Financial Sense, Ben has many more bullets left. He is now just fired bullet 4 of 7. He is working on the long end of the yield curve to generate inflation. If this does not work, the next stage would be massive dollar devaluation FDR style.
Listen to minute 3 to 14 of this podcast
IMO, if Jim is correct, we probably have about 3-6 months to buy all the gold and real estate we want before they take off. Yes, real estate, especially if it is mortgaged with long term fixed rates.
This should be bullish for silver....
CME just raised margins requirments on GOLD
Posted by mamaduck on 10th of Aug 2011 at 07:50 pm
Gold 1810
Gold > 1750
Posted by mamaduck on 10th of Aug 2011 at 06:31 pm
Matt, 1.618 extension is exceeded. What is the next target?
Link
Gold 1795
Gold > 1750
Posted by mamaduck on 10th of Aug 2011 at 11:49 am
Link
Gold inflation adjusted price
Gold Adjusted for Inflation
Posted by mamaduck on 9th of Aug 2011 at 06:01 pm
I think they are all correct, depending on:
a. what inflation figures you use
b. whether you take the weekly closing, daily closing or the all time high.
Here is one from Dan Norcini that takes the monthly clsoing using government CPI figures
If you use John Williams' figures, I believe you will have gold somewhere north of $8,000.
Matt. gold is at 1762.
Gold > 1750
Posted by mamaduck on 9th of Aug 2011 at 12:02 am
Matt. gold is at 1762. What is the next target?
Gold > 1750
Posted by mamaduck on 8th of Aug 2011 at 11:27 pm
Link
Ratio Charts - follow up.
Posted by mamaduck on 8th of Aug 2011 at 05:35 pm
Dow and SPX have met their conservative targets to the downside (and slightly exceeded them). And we are below March 09 lows.
Copper and oil have more downside to go.
also check out this post