It's dangerous to hold anything through earnings, unless it's
taken w/ appropriate risk that you would feel comfortable with.
Your option will likely finish in the money, so it would be
assigned to you at 48.45. It's trading at 44 right now, so you
would be down over 9%. Not the end of the world, unless you took
out a big position.
One option is you can just let the puts get assigned to you, and
then put in a stop loss on the stock. Or you can write OTM Calls on
these while holding the stock, but this requires experience to be
done properly. This is something I would do if I was in your
position. But you can lose even more money if you don't manage the
positions correctly. I would suggest to read up on different option
strategies. There's been lots of traders who's been in the same
position as you before.
As long as the central bankers rule the world, we will likely
get a collapse of the system. I just hope it's longer than 5 years
out like he thinks. I just worry about my parents who are reaching
retirement age.
I think most knew the central bankers were juicing up the
markets. The real question was how ugly it would get when those
invisible hands are no longer bidding up the market? I think we got
our answer the last two weeks.
Matt, I'm a little surprised you didn't post this chart on your
weekend newsletter. You posted it several years ago. Do you still
use it? It looks to be crossing down now, but will need to wait for
confirmation at the end of the week. Also needs a close below that
0 area. Just another strike against the cyclical bull market ending
last week.
Yeah, that descending triangle sure played out. It may be a
little late in the day for those divergences to play out, but we'll
see what happens the rest of the day.
These impulse moves down are wiping out any chance for
divergences. On Friday, I was favoring a continuation of a
consolidation pattern on Monday, then new lows on the 15 min chart
could possibly form a divergent low. Instead, we gapped down huge,
and that big move down took away any chance of divergence.
We could just be setting up for a triangle pattern. Since the
trend is down, the odds are that it breaks to the downside. New
lows could form a possible divergent low. Then maybe the market
could bounce for longer than half a day.
Yes, that's what I generally like to do. But if I wrote some
puts that I'm underwater on, or getting close to being
in-the-money, I may go ahead and write some out-of-the-money calls
as a little bit of a hedge. Or I may just take the loss. Or if I
like the strike price, I'll just hold it and let it get assigned to
me like what you're doing. As with everything, timing and choosing
the right strike price and expiration for the hedge is
important.
When TBT broke that support level last week, you could have
written some Aug calls to absorb some of the losses on the TBT puts
you wrote. Helps your account, but also helps you mentally too.
Maybe. But it may need a new low later to set up positive
divergences on the 15 min charts for a better bounce. So far, it
may just be a short covering bounce, and short term traders buying
support. Need new buyers to push the market higher.
I mostly use the VIX as a guide for playing options. When the
VIX spikes up like in the last two days, it creates a lot of
opportunities. For example, I was able to short the ES AUG 19 1130
Puts in the 20's. On the gapup this morning, I wrote some ES AUG 19
1200 Calls in the 30's. Best case scenario, both of them expire
worthless, and I collect 60 points. But I'm just trying to take
advantage of the spike in premiums, extracting them, and playing
them by ear.
I wouldn't worry too much about the system. The trend changed
from an up market to down, and it was on the wrong side of a new
trend change. If we are entering a new cyclical bear market again,
then future system trades will make out nicely be shorting the
bounces.
If one normally puts $10,000 in SPY, then he/she can put $5,000
in SSO to get about the same amount of leverage. If he decides to
put $10,000 in SSO instead, that would be about equivalent to a
$20,000 position in SPY.
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It's dangerous to hold anything
Need help on option to save my life!!
Posted by cw12 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 01:34 pm
It's dangerous to hold anything through earnings, unless it's taken w/ appropriate risk that you would feel comfortable with. Your option will likely finish in the money, so it would be assigned to you at 48.45. It's trading at 44 right now, so you would be down over 9%. Not the end of the world, unless you took out a big position.
One option is you can just let the puts get assigned to you, and then put in a stop loss on the stock. Or you can write OTM Calls on these while holding the stock, but this requires experience to be done properly. This is something I would do if I was in your position. But you can lose even more money if you don't manage the positions correctly. I would suggest to read up on different option strategies. There's been lots of traders who's been in the same position as you before.
As long as the central
Misc comments
Posted by cw12 on 10th of Aug 2011 at 04:10 pm
As long as the central bankers rule the world, we will likely get a collapse of the system. I just hope it's longer than 5 years out like he thinks. I just worry about my parents who are reaching retirement age.
Yes, once we enacted the
Helpless Feeling
Posted by cw12 on 8th of Aug 2011 at 05:59 pm
Yes, once we enacted the Federal Reserve Act, we were basically screwed. The entire world is playing the same charade thanks to the central bankers.
Daytrade heaven right now on
late in afternoon, the SPX bounced 30 points, then fell ...
Posted by cw12 on 8th of Aug 2011 at 04:09 pm
Daytrade heaven right now on these moves.
I think most knew the
QE1 selloff vs QE2
Posted by cw12 on 8th of Aug 2011 at 04:08 pm
I think most knew the central bankers were juicing up the markets. The real question was how ugly it would get when those invisible hands are no longer bidding up the market? I think we got our answer the last two weeks.
Bear flag broke down.
Could be Bearish Flag on the ES. Previous broken support ...
Posted by cw12 on 8th of Aug 2011 at 03:48 pm
Bear flag broke down.
Could be Bearish Flag on
Posted by cw12 on 8th of Aug 2011 at 03:23 pm
Could be Bearish Flag on the ES. Previous broken support holding as resistance for now.
Matt, I'm a little surprised
Posted by cw12 on 8th of Aug 2011 at 02:22 pm
Matt, I'm a little surprised you didn't post this chart on your weekend newsletter. You posted it several years ago. Do you still use it? It looks to be crossing down now, but will need to wait for confirmation at the end of the week. Also needs a close below that 0 area. Just another strike against the cyclical bull market ending last week.
Yeah, that descending triangle sure
Descending triangle on the 5 min SPX
Posted by cw12 on 8th of Aug 2011 at 02:03 pm
Yeah, that descending triangle sure played out. It may be a little late in the day for those divergences to play out, but we'll see what happens the rest of the day.
Descending triangle on the 5
Posted by cw12 on 8th of Aug 2011 at 12:40 pm
Descending triangle on the 5 min SPX
These impulse moves down are
no more 5 min + divergence...
Posted by cw12 on 8th of Aug 2011 at 11:46 am
These impulse moves down are wiping out any chance for divergences. On Friday, I was favoring a continuation of a consolidation pattern on Monday, then new lows on the 15 min chart could possibly form a divergent low. Instead, we gapped down huge, and that big move down took away any chance of divergence.
We could just be setting
sooooo much damage done "again"....hard to see how that was the low...hope Im wrong.....
Posted by cw12 on 5th of Aug 2011 at 07:54 pm
We could just be setting up for a triangle pattern. Since the trend is down, the odds are that it breaks to the downside. New lows could form a possible divergent low. Then maybe the market could bounce for longer than half a day.
Yep, running out of time.
spx5,inverse hs?
Posted by cw12 on 5th of Aug 2011 at 02:52 pm
Yep, running out of time. That right shoulder is looking a little heavy now. In down markets, often times these bullish intraday patterns fail.
Yes, that's what I generally
Following the VIX
Posted by cw12 on 5th of Aug 2011 at 02:37 pm
Yes, that's what I generally like to do. But if I wrote some puts that I'm underwater on, or getting close to being in-the-money, I may go ahead and write some out-of-the-money calls as a little bit of a hedge. Or I may just take the loss. Or if I like the strike price, I'll just hold it and let it get assigned to me like what you're doing. As with everything, timing and choosing the right strike price and expiration for the hedge is important.
bkout3, When TBT broke that support
Following the VIX
Posted by cw12 on 5th of Aug 2011 at 02:17 pm
bkout3,
When TBT broke that support level last week, you could have written some Aug calls to absorb some of the losses on the TBT puts you wrote. Helps your account, but also helps you mentally too.
Maybe. But it may need
sooooo much damage done "again"....hard to see how that was the low...hope Im wrong.....
Posted by cw12 on 5th of Aug 2011 at 01:38 pm
Maybe. But it may need a new low later to set up positive divergences on the 15 min charts for a better bounce. So far, it may just be a short covering bounce, and short term traders buying support. Need new buyers to push the market higher.
I mostly use the VIX
Following the VIX
Posted by cw12 on 5th of Aug 2011 at 01:12 pm
I mostly use the VIX as a guide for playing options. When the VIX spikes up like in the last two days, it creates a lot of opportunities. For example, I was able to short the ES AUG 19 1130 Puts in the 20's. On the gapup this morning, I wrote some ES AUG 19 1200 Calls in the 30's. Best case scenario, both of them expire worthless, and I collect 60 points. But I'm just trying to take advantage of the spike in premiums, extracting them, and playing them by ear.
I wouldn't worry too much
Posted by cw12 on 5th of Aug 2011 at 09:49 am
I wouldn't worry too much about the system. The trend changed from an up market to down, and it was on the wrong side of a new trend change. If we are entering a new cyclical bear market again, then future system trades will make out nicely be shorting the bounces.
He drops a big ol'
payrolls data link
Posted by cw12 on 5th of Aug 2011 at 09:37 am
He drops a big ol' turd on the economy. Now he drops a big turd in the toilet.
If one normally puts $10,000
Posted by cw12 on 4th of Aug 2011 at 03:41 pm
If one normally puts $10,000 in SPY, then he/she can put $5,000 in SSO to get about the same amount of leverage. If he decides to put $10,000 in SSO instead, that would be about equivalent to a $20,000 position in SPY.