thanks little mule :) 

although it looks like it is hanging on for dear life - but still above the 39.

thanks guys.  so is it correct to say that since no candle closed higher than the cross candle that it has not crossed yet?

anyone else see a 15min cross up of srs on the 9.39 ema?

Amazing Matt and Steve.  This site keeps getting better.  These charts will really help everyone stay on the same page and avoid quirky discrepencies among users with different platforms trying to determine if their line crossed or not. 

Thanks. 

One more suggestion is if you could add labels and parameters to the indicators for the benefit of those who have tradestation and are trying to run the chart locally as well.

With all due respect - and I mean that sincerely - matt and steve are not prophets.  They provide a structured, well thought out series of possibilities that may unfold based on probabilities of established patterns materializing. 

I lost a ton of money today because I made the classic mistake of doubling down whenever we hit a potential resistance point instead of just reversing my position to go with the trend.    But I don't blame anyone but myself.   Lots of people got caught today - but, and I say this with the utmost humility - the ones who look inward and try to learn from their mistakes will become better traders than the ones who blame others.   Mark down where you went wrong and grow from the experience - If you do that, then the money was not entirely wasted.

Best of luck to all.

question for the group - does anyone see a bull flag forming on the 60 minute es chart?  how reliable are chart patterns in the overnight market (given the light volume)?  thanks in advance to whoever weighs in.

Hello all.  There is a great arbitrage oppoprtunity between Citigroup Seriers AA Preferred Securities (symbol c prm in interactive brokers) and Citigroup common stock.

Citigroup recently announced the details of the premium to market on form 8-K: Holders of Citigroup Series AA Preferred will be able to exchange their preferred shares for approximately 7.307 shares of Citigroup common stock.

Some simple math shows that if you multiply the current price of citi stock (2.64 by 7.31 then you should have a preferred share price of $19.24.  But the preferred shares are trading for 15.25.   Therefore, you can lock in approximately $4 in arbitrage profit by longing  1 Series AA Preferred and shorting 7.307 shares of Citigroup common stock. You will have to execute this trade through a broker that allows shorting on stocks that trade below $5.  Also there is a risk of having you short shares recalled so PLEASE make sure you understand the BUY IN risk.

A way around the buy-in risk is to synthetically create a short using options.  This is more expensive and would eat into the arb profits but it still offers a real edge of between 10 and 15% depending on your execution price.  (to do a synthetic short you need to sell the June $5 calls and buy the June $5 puts.   So to give a practical example, if you wanted to short 10,000 shares, you would buy 100 puts and sell 100 calls ... and then go long 1370 preferred (1370 = 10000/7.31)

Best of luck to all and have a great weekend. 

anyone else see a bull flag forming on the sp futures 30 min chart???

Matt, Dodger

citi is up big again after hours - and so is FAS. Any idea what is driving this - the S&P looks ready to pullback any minute? 

anyone see us breaking down of the bear wedge in the 15 min es chart?

looking for a retrace down to trend line on 5 minute map. looks like we may bounce and reach 744 on sp futures.  anyone?

if 737 does not hold i have next resistance at 745.  anyone?

good point.  i have major resistance pegged at 737.  that would fit nicely with your observation.

anyone see a bull flag on a bull flag on the sp futures 5 min chart.  i think we go right to 737 from here

i have a top estimate of 737 - anyone concurr?

Brilliant! I'm going to Kinkos after trading today and getting a poster of this and the trading emotions cycle for my wall. 

thanks for the clarifacation matt - especially when you are so busy getting the nightly update together.  when you have a minute, could you please explain why it would not work to monitor the overnight movement (futures) since the sp index does not track overnight.

matt's 60 min 7/21 ema crossover just crossed down on sp futures and gave a confirming candle.