maybe the market is pressing for more cash even harder than for
this forecasted twist in the yield curve....and if no further
cash provided we may end up in deflation....
"But they also ruled that in future the budget committee of the
Bundestag must give its prior approval before any further German
financial guarantees for loans to its 16 partners in the eurozone."
( from the FT)
My feeling on this, is that they will not rule ilegal what has
been done so far in what concerns the Greek, Irish and Portuguese
bail outs...but going forward probably it will be much harder
for Ms Merkel to put together solutions (without a vote
in the bundestag) with the EU and the ECB if a
major problem arises in the future with regards to Spain and
Italy....
Kind of mixed bag answer but fr me quite negative...one deals
with the past, the other with the future
After the CHF loosing its appeal as a safe heaven today, GOLD
gets reinforced in my opinion...last fortress are the sovereign
bonds of strong nations...after that, free way for gold in my
opinion...nothing left to hide
i hear that the short ban on stocks in Italy, Spain, France and
Belgium had as collateral effect that people are hedging through
the Dax...That is an explanation for the Dax moving down sharply
and harder than other indexes
From a few conversations I had with some treasurers here in
Europe, I get the feeling that international money market funds
have been pulling out of Europe because of the debt crisis,
specially from french and italian banks....seems that for quite a
while they have been investing alternatively in us treaury bonds
...might explain part of that big spike in prices of the last few
weeks...
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
something that could go along the lines of Campbell
Posted by alseq on 28th of Sep 2011 at 07:46 am
Very good point this one on cash balances
http://www.tradingfloor.com/blogs/equity-ad-hoc/can-low-cash-balances-trigger-the-perfect-storm-in-stocks-1935120718
tax on financial transactions
Posted by alseq on 27th of Sep 2011 at 06:12 pm
this will only agravate the liquidity trap of european banks...more money moving away
ES
Posted by alseq on 27th of Sep 2011 at 04:35 pm
tx Steve
spx
Posted by alseq on 27th of Sep 2011 at 04:21 pm
Steve, please post pivot and support and resistance in ES for tomorrow
usd and br real
Posted by alseq on 21st of Sep 2011 at 11:47 am
Br real again sharply lower....seems that usd devaluation is not a favoured scenario right now...
operation twist
Posted by alseq on 19th of Sep 2011 at 01:53 pm
maybe the market is pressing for more cash even harder than for this forecasted twist in the yield curve....and if no further cash provided we may end up in deflation....
usd-b real
Posted by alseq on 19th of Sep 2011 at 01:15 pm
tryed to find news that could explain this....didn't find any....only one should be repatriation of hot money on a risk aversion mode
usd breal
Posted by alseq on 19th of Sep 2011 at 01:09 pm
Brazilian real taking a hit today versus the usd...any comments...seems to me a pretty good sign of risk aversion going on...
at the mercy of any government in europe
Posted by alseq on 9th of Sep 2011 at 12:15 pm
...be it Germany, be it the Greeks, the true Fins, whoever pulls the trigger
All it takes is one government to say "to hell with this" and the whole mess unravels
germany
Posted by alseq on 7th of Sep 2011 at 07:44 am
As expected:
No previous infringement but:
"But they also ruled that in future the budget committee of the Bundestag must give its prior approval before any further German financial guarantees for loans to its 16 partners in the eurozone." ( from the FT)
USD
Posted by alseq on 6th of Sep 2011 at 12:18 pm
Matt/Steve
Although a tough one, ould you express your views on the usd if closes today where it is at the moment and in particular below 1,4 against the eur
german vote
Posted by alseq on 6th of Sep 2011 at 10:14 am
My feeling on this, is that they will not rule ilegal what has been done so far in what concerns the Greek, Irish and Portuguese bail outs...but going forward probably it will be much harder for Ms Merkel to put together solutions (without a vote in the bundestag) with the EU and the ECB if a major problem arises in the future with regards to Spain and Italy....
Kind of mixed bag answer but fr me quite negative...one deals with the past, the other with the future
CHF
Posted by alseq on 6th of Sep 2011 at 09:49 am
After the CHF loosing its appeal as a safe heaven today, GOLD gets reinforced in my opinion...last fortress are the sovereign bonds of strong nations...after that, free way for gold in my opinion...nothing left to hide
dax
Posted by alseq on 5th of Sep 2011 at 01:51 pm
61,8% retracement of the up move 2009/2011 in the dax is about 5120
dax
Posted by alseq on 5th of Sep 2011 at 01:32 pm
i hear that the short ban on stocks in Italy, Spain, France and Belgium had as collateral effect that people are hedging through the Dax...That is an explanation for the Dax moving down sharply and harder than other indexes
us treasury bonds
Posted by alseq on 26th of Aug 2011 at 09:52 am
From a few conversations I had with some treasurers here in Europe, I get the feeling that international money market funds have been pulling out of Europe because of the debt crisis, specially from french and italian banks....seems that for quite a while they have been investing alternatively in us treaury bonds ...might explain part of that big spike in prices of the last few weeks...
dba
Posted by alseq on 19th of Aug 2011 at 01:21 pm
dba in a very nice move today
tbt
Posted by alseq on 19th of Aug 2011 at 12:49 pm
buying some sept 25 calls on tbt now for a buck
tx for uup charts Steve for
Posted by alseq on 19th of Aug 2011 at 12:36 pm
tx for uup charts Steve
for me usd and euro are like 2 old women trying both to help each other walking down the street...
Interested to see which breaks first and maybe for the usd to go higher need tbt to put a bottom in place
any comments on usd appreciated
Posted by alseq on 19th of Aug 2011 at 11:59 am
any comments on usd appreciated