remember the BPGDM updates intra day now, you can always  check it anytime. No changes - just pull up the URL from a past trading community post or newsletter

also you have to think about how those trending systems work: They are going to do very well catching wave 3 trending moves, but could have a propensity to get some chop on wave 2's and 4's where they may not react fast enough or on noise.

the system caught a massive wave 3, and that reversal signal on was triggered by a wave 4.  My guess would be that if it goes back long here it will be sometime in the wave 5 - which also puts it at risk to not make much or be another whipsaw if wave 5 doesn't trend for a while. 

also keep in mind that GDX's biggest weighting is NEM, which hasn't been as strong as the others - the strongest have been the silver stocks 

IREN - Chart Link- excellent pick by MLA the other day, wasn't shown in last night's newsletter, was in my Monday newsletter but I wanted to give kudos to MLA127. 

TMDX - Chart Link- some of these trade ideas that triggered 2 and 3 weeks ago continue to trend higher, simply trail those stops up

no way - I don't have it open so I don't remember the exact parameters, but price has to have closed consecutively above the 8 day MA for at least 30 bars or something, it's only been over 10 bars now.  And the 60 Stochastic has to have been trending above 80% for quite a while, it's only been above 80% for about a week. 

that correction in April basically reset everything 

no, and why would you think they would?  really the only systems we might see trigger is the breakout system (60 Stochastic short a maybe if we saw a reversal now, but will be negated soon, read below

almost all the mean reversion systems systems need to have price either below the 200 day MA or some major MA downtrending along with price, then they look to short bounces

the 60 Stochastic systems could short while price is up if that stochastic reverses off the underside of 80% - that one theoretically is possible as 60 Stochastic is at 79%, HOWEVER price needs to reverse down right from here to trigger

the exhaustion shorts can trigger in strong markets, but again they are extremely difficult to trigger price needs to be uptrending for a long period of time above short term MA's - which we we saw the last exhaustion short trigger in late March after such an extended run from the Oct lows. But since that time price recycled went below the 50 day MA etc, so those conditions are reset - you have to be trading above the 8 day MA for like 30 bars at least, price has been above the 8 MA for 5 bars only

MSFT - Chart Link- stalled at 61.8% Fib the other day

META - Chart Link- could be a lower risk short soon nearing those resistance trendlines and 20/50 MA's overhead

$SPX - Chart Link- 60 min stalled at the downtrend line we drew over weekend

SPXU filled a gap - could try a long or hedge with a tight stop below today's lows

GCT - Chart Link- nice breakout yesterday, notice this morning price pulled back to backtest the coil trendline where it found support

AMD - Chart Link nice bounce off that demand zone, which is why I added it to the longs watchlist last week

today price stalling at a logical place at the downtrend channel line and 20 day MA

nice rally off the lows, but now the market is nearing a major inflection point where price will either form a lower high and turn back down or bust through important resistance and go to a new high:  On SPX 50 day SMA, ATR at 5170, 76.4% and 78.6% Fibs at 5191 and 5200 respectively, and downtrend line. We are also now in May, which is the start of the weaker time of the year

DigiNomad - the worst example for that used to be Motleyfool - just read this article from back in 2006, I  remember reading this at the time - this author calls TA voodoo and that we are all 'fooling' ourselves ( lol see what I did there?)  for trying to see patterns and drawing trendlines - just a worthless BS article

TA works, you have all seen it in action over many many years, that author was an idiot 

otherwise I think the best approach if to combine the two: technicals and fundamentals - for longer term traders - for day traders and short term trades technicals are fine - but if you are trying to swing position yourself into a company that you thing has fantastic fundamentals, then technicals are for your timing your entry

https://www.fool.com/investing/value/2006/04/10/technical-analysis-voodoo.aspx  

URA - Chart Link- quite the recovery off yesterday's dump to the uptrend line of the coil

Here's the scenario I discussed in Thursday's newsletter but I didn't market it up. Because of the daily symmetry break there is higher odds now of a lower high forming. Under this scenario the move down could be wave A, and we are unfolding in an abc bounce to complete wave B lower high (supported by the symmetry break) and once that's complete a move down for wave C. If you recall, we've been showing such a scenario on the weekly QQQ's, see the last chart

Wave B's often retrace 50% to 61.8%, however they can retrace more than that and with the market one thing Steve and I have noticed is that moves are more exaggerated these days.  A move down could take the SPX back to that long term support and demand zone

$SPX - Chart Link shows the scenario on the daily SPX

SPY - Chart Link same scenario but on the SPY

$SPX - Chart Link weekly chart, if the wave count is correct, basically once this wave B is over, you get a move down to those major support zones

$SPX - Chart Link - this daily chart is interesting, that broken trendline is another area that could be retested if the SPX did a larger retracement than a 61.8% fib - perhaps retest that trendline

QQQ - Chart Link - here's that weekly QQQ's chart that we've been showing since last fall - this basically shows the same scenario

$SPX - Chart Link kind of a H&S look there, anyway something to monitor if it breaks that trendline

otherwise being a Friday, I'm hoping the market just does nothing the rest of the day

NVDA - Chart Link -  EdZ posted some nice charts below, here's the one we've had, testing the downtrend line today

TSLA - Chart Link-

$BTCUSD - Chart Link- crypto nuts better hope it doesn't lose that 60K area around that trendline, there's no support, air pocket, until you get to some support in that demand area at 52 - 51K, then you have the 200 day below that.

Otherwise still has plenty of room still a ways up from that support but something to watch should it continue to decline

$BTCUSD - Chart Link- 4hr chart

META - Chart Link-

MSFT - Chart Link- The big boy that reports today, not support and demand zone below

GOOGL - Chart Link- gapped below trendline, retested bottom of it

AMZN - Chart Link - filling that demand zone, but there's a big open gap below 

UNG - Chart Link- rallied off the lower wedge trendline last week to the top of the wedge yesterday where so far it has been rejected. We'll see if it can form a higher low inside the wedge or not

SPY and ES are different

SPY cash market opens at 9:30 am, closes at 4:00 pm - SPY QE BTS will exit tomorrow on the open (but we exited it today as I forget about that)

ES trades 23 hrs a day except for weekends. The closing bar for ES is 4 pm, the next day's bar opens back at 5 pm

ES closing bar is tomorrow at 4 pm.  

Also - the system holding ES is the Trend/Pullback -that one DOES NOT exit on the next open bar, only the close - which is tomorrow.  The QE BTS for SPY exits next bar open, I think its the only system that does that

On the SPY and ES mean reversion systems, as you know most exited: the SPY QE BTS exits tomorrow morning at the open but we exited today.

The SPY Trend/Pullback is still long. Since it has met its first mean reversion target, I'm electing to exit 1/2 of the position and leave the other 1/2 for the system to exit. 

1st entry 2 contracts, selling 1. 2nd entry 4 contracts, selling 2, and 3rd entry was 6 contracts, selling 3,

this leaves 1, 2, and 3 contracts for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd

here's the table - I'm using current MES prices here

NICE gains! Again realize on things like MES futures not everyone is going to do 3 and 6 contracts, some would do 1/2 that 1,2,3, while some folks may do a lot more or use ES futures instead who have larger accounts, and some who don't want to trade futures can alway substitute the ETF's in place of MES futures 

that said there is a big tax benefit of futures over ETF's, for futures you have the 60/40 tax rule where 60% of your gains are taxed at long term capital gains, and the other 40% are taxed at short-term cap gains. For stocks, you have to hold for over a year to get that, but for futures you can hold for 1 second and still get that - kind of a tax loophole for the rich basically. If you are rich it's best to buy futures over ETF's