it's won't be doing anything yesterday there was probably a perfect alignment of the indicators that for a time intra day all lined up but then went away and now can't setup again because we are not oversold anymore - that washout trade only occurred 4 times in history, so odds almost never favor it triggering. More than likely it will only trigger after the market is well off the lows after confirming an uptrend

we are in bear market best to play the reversion to mean systems and other setups vs worrying about that daily or weekly KISS long only going back long

UUP - Chart Link- I said the next target was the 20 SMA, could try and bounce some off that

TLT - Chart Link- finding resistance at downtrend line 

FYI the daily SPX KISS trend is going back long today! Surprised? this is a rare entry, it's the one component of the KISS Trend system that has a reversion to mean 'washout' component to it, it triggers on deep washouts and on a reversal candle like we have today. So it's kind of a mix of reversion to mean and trend because it needs a reversal candle up along with some indicators moving up, instead of buying at lows like the reversion to mean. 

I've attached images of when this triggered in the past: Today so far, Mar 24th 2020, Dec 26th 2018, Mar 10th 2009

DVT stop is at the low. Again depends on what the market does: if this is only a 4th wave, then this may end up being a wash, but if the low is something more concrete then maybe it catches a larger trade - who knows

it was typical trend day action from morning gap to mid day, however the pullback fell below the 50 SMA on the 5 min time frame and 60 Stoch is slightly below 80%. usually on trend days those hold. 

that said, this afternoon watch price, it's still way above the VWAP,  and it could from some sort of coil here and then breakout again, we'll see.

overnight on ES the low of 3560 likely put in a trade low for now, if so then could see a move up over a few days to 3700 range, we'll see...

yes the pullback will be very telling assuming we get one, and price stalled at that downtrend line today. It held up very well consider the market craping the bed, 

updated view - again this works well on intra day moves that trend for a bit - sideways move can chop you up, but it went on buy this morning for a nice move then flipped to a sell

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/RcUtnckV/ 

AU - Chart Link- gapped above the 20 day MA and a downtrend line, and the ratio clearly broke the downtrend line so it's outperforming relative to gold

BVN - Chart Link- one hell of a day for this one up 10% breaking out of that bull flag pattern!

CDE - Chart Link- some nice volume patterns today

Regarding some questions about the reversion to mean systems and stops yesterday there were some questions from new guys regarding stops etc. I wrote this in response and I also discuss a lot of other things such as emotion and how to think about the systems

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First off the KISS trend following long only systems use stops - i.e. the DVT's higher low stops. The Breakout system also uses traditional hard stops and trailing stops

The 21 reversion to mean systems do not use 'INITIAL' traditional hard stops, where you set a hard stop after you enter the trade. An example of these type of systems to think about would be let's say you observe that in the past 30 years when price fell 10 days in a row on the SPX, it always put in a bounce on day 11. Well let's say that condition occurs again and you go long, but instead of price rallying on day 12, it falls again, and now you have a new statistical record.  What you have now is an even more statistically stretched scenario where prices are even more prone to a reversion back to the mean bounce. You could sell and stop out, or you can scale in more assuming that prices will eventually revert back as you now have a statistically more stretched scenario.  Instead of hard stops, the systems whenever they get into a bad trade, they will exit instead after an oversold bounce, vs stopping at at the lows. 

I tested using initial hard stops on these systems every which way but Sunday and the results were always worse by using initial hard stops rather than letting the systems exit on an oversold bounce instead. Too often your stop would hit at -8% or -10%, 12%, and even bottom tick where you sold the exact low. I found that if you simply let the system exit on its own after a bounce, you might get out with only a -1% or -2% loss or even a winner.  The long systems exit on a bounce, the short systems exit on a pullback. The exceptions are after reversion to mean moves occur if the systems decide to hold for longer, trailing stops may be used or by indicators like the momo changing slope - but realize that's after you got your reversion to mean bounce or pullback already.

Reversion to the means systems are NOT feel good systems - they can be counter trend trades that are buying into sharp weakness when everything feels the worst, and they also exit or sell when everyone else is buying and it feels the best. This really plays on ones psychology and is hard to get used to.

I suggest strongly that anyone trading the systems first start off with extremely small position sizes be conservative, don't swing for the fences, because your emotions will get to you if the systems go through what I call an 'ass pucker' trade where they go through some good draw down and multiple entries before they finally get a bounce (for longs) or pullback (for shorts). Do them small until you get a handful of trades under your belt with some profits that can 'buffer' your account and your emotions, before you increase position size. The guys that start off and swing for the fences with too large of a percentage of their account end up failing if their first experience with the systems takes some draw down and they have too much at stake. 

I'm not an investment adviser and so I cannot give advice, I'm giving you general information to consider in order to make your own decisions. 

If you really want to set hard stops - you can ask me what the max historical drawdown was for a particular system and one idea would be to set a stop a bit wider than the historical draw down - realize that odds could have the max historical draw down exceeded slightly to stop you out only to reverse and that be the new max historical draw down where you got stopped out at the lows. 

another thing - the reversion to mean systems usually about once or twice a year go through some of these tough trades. Most of the time 90% it's ho hum and no big deal.  When you first start to trade the systems, you might start at a good time when you get 10 or 20 easy trades before the 'pucker' trade, or as odds have it, you might get stuck with the pucker trade as your first one. 

$SPX - Chart Link - the new lows indicator closing 6 consecutive bars over its upper Bollinger Bands, a new record - did not occur in Mar 2020, nor 2008, not any of the other major corrections.

that said realize we are in some sort of wave 3, the trending move. Also, this consecutive trend could be broken by a one day bounce so don't read into it that a major bottom is here or close - short-term it's just saying things are extremely stretched and due for at least a one day bounce any time

FXY bucked the trend even with the strong US Dollar because of their central bank action.

that reversion to mean trade may still play out, technically it triggered today, which I got filled on from a buy stop I had at the high of last week's candle. I didn't even realize I was filled until I looked this evening LOL

Here's the image of the open mean reversion system trades:

The bear long ver 1 will be taking a 1st entry at the closing bar (bottom right) chart.  Yesterday the ver 2 bear long took a 1st entry (bottom left). Yesterday we took a 1/2 position only long, and today I'll add the other 1/2 of that long.

Nothing new to report for the open SPY system trades. Bear long in 1st entry and Stoch Rev short is still short from 9/13

The KISS SPX trend system in cash since Aug 26th when the DVT at 4088 was hit - second image

as I stated last night, the bear long triggered on ES Ver 2 but NOT Ver 1, and is why I chose to do only a 1/2 position yesterday. Ver 1 is now showing a trigger. Like I said, no reason to be aggressive as I thought we'd get lower prices

on the SPY side, the bear long triggered that 1st entry yesterday, we did NOT take the option trade, I could have forced it but I also thought we'd move lower so why add that leverage.
On the Stoch Rev that is still short - that will finally exit only when the BPT DS indicator cross up over 0.2. Currently it's at 0.9, so one up day would probably do that. Clearly that system trade did well

KISS Trend Systems:KISS daily systems have been in cash since 8/26/22

it didn't take any draw down from when I finally posted it, remember I didn't see the trigger for a couple days. price gapped down the next day and trended lower after I posted it here. 

When it actually triggered (which I missed), it took 3 points of intra day draw down one day from intra day only NOT close

393.1 entry and 396.2.  Three points out of 393, -0.76%, oh my god the travesty LOL 

GDX - Chart Link- notice the GDX/GLD ratio found support on the trendline last week and bounced off

BVN - Chart Link- this one never looked bad - was nice out of that low, and all it did was flag out

BTG - Chart Link- this one had strong relative strength, rallied today

IAG - Chart Link- price retested that wedge trendline

after big trend days the following day is generally a choppy consolidation day

as I told you guys this morning, don't get too bearish on an OPEX day, because price usually doesn't trend all day in one direction on those days, and that's what happened today, down big in the morning, then based, then recovery 

on this quick market pop, the long trigger on the ES bear long went away So FYI - will depend how ES looks later in the day

and as I said this morning with OPEX, I did not expect the market to just trend down all day

intra day posts will work if you post a print version of it - or attach the image of course. You have to select print option and Stockcharts gives you a different URL that shows for everyone. 

as far as that W patter - remember I posted a W pattern on the SPX last Wed when it was nearing the 4000 area after that first rally off the trendline low. That W pattern played out with a move up to 4119, but the big difference here guys is that it's way to early to think about that now too much. when I drew that pattern, the W had mostly formed with 4 legs - right now you still need the whole leg up - you only have 3 legs of the W.

how to plan for it? I don't think you need to because most scenarios both bearish and bullish all align with each other right now and call for a rally off this area - even the bear scenario would call for a rally up to 4000 area or a bit higher - why wouldn't you be long regardless - then after being long if you get that rally up to those areas and the 4th leg of the W pattern appears to be forming you can then decide to simply hold your long position vs exiting - that's how you plan 

remember OPEX tomorrow guys - likely a lot of gyrations but probably not some big trend day in one direction. 

to me it's next week where the market will make its real decision. 

FYI I sent out an email about 10 min ago - I elected to take 1/2 off on the open ES short. That's just my style - the mean reversion occurred yesterday. image shows the QE short the version on left has the trending condition turned on and will hold, while the one on the right shows it turned off and thus the system exited on the pure mean reversion. So what I'm doing is 'splitting the difference' 

it remains to be seen which strategy will make the most money: i.e. keeping a full position until the trending version finally exits, or selling some here. That's going to depend of course on what the market does - if it sells off to new lows next week, then staying in the whole position and not covering 1/2 would have been your better option. 

you go with what you think is best. I will obviously communicate when the trending version finally exits because we will cover the other 1/2 short whenever that version finally exits.