I've made a simple study of silver during this bull market, and
I've discovered that if a person buys when the RSI is at or under
30, that they'd generally be buying near the lows. (Of course, that
would generally be in the midst of terror, plus it's not an exact
science.) Right now, we're pretty close (if not there already), so
those of you who are looking to participate in this bull market
might want to wait until this decline ends (pick a short-term
trigger, possibly off the hourly chart) and then go with it. Just a
thought!
Silver to me looks to be correcting in wave C down. Wave A
bottom was $8. Target from the confirmed H&S pattern is $14. On
the weekly chart wave A bottomed at RSI 30ish in Sep 08 and since
then each subsequent correction the weekly RSI has bounced at
45ish. Last weeks weekly RSI reading was 43 and to give some
perspective into how much price can correct then you need to look
at what price silver was trading when the RSI last traded below 45
on the weekly and what price drop occurred before it bottomed just
below 30. Silver was trading at $17 and put in a low at $8. Silver
drops twice as fast in percentage terms as gold when copper is also
falling. If we expect gold to correct 8% from here to $990 and
possibly 15% to as low as $925 then silver potentially has a 30%
move down. Price in these two cases would be $14.20 (gold $990) and
$11 (gold $925).
$11 silver would be pretty nice (speaking as someone who
unloaded it a bit too early last time!) Not so nice if you own
it though. But we'll see what happens...
Just to clarify, I'm not talking about a short-term trade here,
but a longer-term buy and hold, probably for the remainder of the
bull market in precious metals.
About silver
Posted by user32 on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:03 pm
I've made a simple study of silver during this bull market, and I've discovered that if a person buys when the RSI is at or under 30, that they'd generally be buying near the lows. (Of course, that would generally be in the midst of terror, plus it's not an exact science.) Right now, we're pretty close (if not there already), so those of you who are looking to participate in this bull market might want to wait until this decline ends (pick a short-term trigger, possibly off the hourly chart) and then go with it. Just a thought!
Silver to me looks to
Posted by phillw on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:35 pm
Silver to me looks to be correcting in wave C down. Wave A bottom was $8. Target from the confirmed H&S pattern is $14. On the weekly chart wave A bottomed at RSI 30ish in Sep 08 and since then each subsequent correction the weekly RSI has bounced at 45ish. Last weeks weekly RSI reading was 43 and to give some perspective into how much price can correct then you need to look at what price silver was trading when the RSI last traded below 45 on the weekly and what price drop occurred before it bottomed just below 30. Silver was trading at $17 and put in a low at $8. Silver drops twice as fast in percentage terms as gold when copper is also falling. If we expect gold to correct 8% from here to $990 and possibly 15% to as low as $925 then silver potentially has a 30% move down. Price in these two cases would be $14.20 (gold $990) and $11 (gold $925).
The $990 gold should equal
Posted by phillw on 4th of Feb 2010 at 01:12 pm
The $990 gold should equal (silver $13.10)
$11 silver would be pretty
Posted by user32 on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:43 pm
$11 silver would be pretty nice (speaking as someone who unloaded it a bit too early last time!) Not so nice if you own it though. But we'll see what happens...
daily chart?
Posted by whs956 on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:15 pm
what time frame are you using?
Just to clarify, I'm not
Posted by user32 on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:07 pm
Just to clarify, I'm not talking about a short-term trade here, but a longer-term buy and hold, probably for the remainder of the bull market in precious metals.
Very close, indeed. Gold needs
Posted by junkie on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:19 pm
Very close, indeed. Gold needs to go lower from here to give that RSI reading.