My feeling after looking at the internals are that the market is
most likely in Wave 1 of [3] or [C] down with it's eyes on the 200
day MA over time or down to around the SPX 1030 area. There
are certainly other possibilities BUT the internals support the
above statement. There is support on the SPX around 1065/70
area (including the 1069-73 Nov 09 gap). If this wave ends
around those levels, we would look for a possible 50% retrace back
to around 1080-90 area on the SPX.
The one other scenario that I give some thought to would be that
the move up over the past few days was (a) and that this pullback
is (b) and then up in (c) which would be an expanded flat.
This occurred in October of 2007 where (a) corrected
approximately 38% before (b) made a new low with RSI divergence
before (c) rebounded back up in a strong five wave advance to
retrace about 62% of the larger decline.
i was just thinking this could be an irregular abc where B goes
lower than A, I mean isn't that the type of count that EW was
favoring to make 1104 the top of C?
Wel if this is wave 1 of 3 as it seems may be likely, the within
that wave 1 looks like we need another wave 4 and 5.
So do we get a wave 4 bounce or another one of those drawn out
sideways grinds? And then after the 5th wave is in, how high
will wave 2 bounce, just back to where we are about now 1070-1073?
ahh the uncertainties of these markets.
macd showing a little positive divergence on the 5 and 10 minute
charts, plus VIX and SPX outside their hourly BBs.
lower lows on Dow and SPX than Monday, wave 2 completed at
1104.
Or how about this, looking at the 60 minute chart was 1104 the
top of wave 4? is this just the final wave 5 of 1 down from
1150??
Consider that at 1104 that wave was 51% retrace of a wave 3 down
to Monday's lows, and just over 38.2% of the whole decline from
1150.
Also if wave 1 was some 20 points then this could be wave 5 as
it is a bit more than 1.618X wave 1 at current lows at 1069.
Just a thought. Wow goldtrader, we think alike!!
p.s. why does steve and matt's internet connections always have
problems on super volatile days? Did you guys tweak someone over at
Homeland Security or the NSA?
Groups do not want competitors in making money, so they attack
weak links. So far, weak links seem to be computers for Matt and
Steve for this site. I don't find this coincidence ironic at
all.
Quick Comment (update)
Posted by steve on 4th of Feb 2010 at 11:39 am
My feeling after looking at the internals are that the market is most likely in Wave 1 of [3] or [C] down with it's eyes on the 200 day MA over time or down to around the SPX 1030 area. There are certainly other possibilities BUT the internals support the above statement. There is support on the SPX around 1065/70 area (including the 1069-73 Nov 09 gap). If this wave ends around those levels, we would look for a possible 50% retrace back to around 1080-90 area on the SPX.
The one other scenario that I give some thought to would be that the move up over the past few days was (a) and that this pullback is (b) and then up in (c) which would be an expanded flat. This occurred in October of 2007 where (a) corrected approximately 38% before (b) made a new low with RSI divergence before (c) rebounded back up in a strong five wave advance to retrace about 62% of the larger decline.
of course with EW all counts are possible
Posted by perthx on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:27 pm
i was just thinking this could be an irregular abc where B goes lower than A, I mean isn't that the type of count that EW was favoring to make 1104 the top of C?
Wel if this is wave 1 of 3 as it seems may be likely, the within that wave 1 looks like we need another wave 4 and 5.
So do we get a wave 4 bounce or another one of those drawn out sideways grinds? And then after the 5th wave is in, how high will wave 2 bounce, just back to where we are about now 1070-1073? ahh the uncertainties of these markets.
macd showing a little positive divergence on the 5 and 10 minute charts, plus VIX and SPX outside their hourly BBs.
yes there is some positive
Posted by matt on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:43 pm
yes there is some positive divergence on the 5 min chart, but it has yet to produce a bounce intra day, here's a 5 min SPX chart
VIX 60
Posted by steve on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:35 pm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=5&id=p80672650266&a=149415872&listNum=61
can anyone explain what matt
Posted by RM686 on 4th of Feb 2010 at 11:53 am
can anyone explain what matt is talking about in the second or last paragraph of this post?
lower lows on Dow and
Posted by perthx on 4th of Feb 2010 at 11:48 am
lower lows on Dow and SPX than Monday, wave 2 completed at 1104.
Or how about this, looking at the 60 minute chart was 1104 the top of wave 4? is this just the final wave 5 of 1 down from 1150??
Consider that at 1104 that wave was 51% retrace of a wave 3 down to Monday's lows, and just over 38.2% of the whole decline from 1150.
Also if wave 1 was some 20 points then this could be wave 5 as it is a bit more than 1.618X wave 1 at current lows at 1069.
Just a thought. Wow goldtrader, we think alike!!
p.s. why does steve and matt's internet connections always have problems on super volatile days? Did you guys tweak someone over at Homeland Security or the NSA?
Groups do not want competitors
Posted by junkie on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:07 pm
Groups do not want competitors in making money, so they attack weak links. So far, weak links seem to be computers for Matt and Steve for this site. I don't find this coincidence ironic at all.
junkie - that post is
Posted by steve on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:11 pm
junkie - that post is worthless and makes me angry. Please attempt to keep the blog productive.
I have posted many scenarios over the past few days concerning the market so please spare me such comments.
What if....?
Posted by goldtrader on 4th of Feb 2010 at 11:47 am
.... this is just wave 5 of big 1 of C?
It's possible BUT the internals
Posted by steve on 4th of Feb 2010 at 12:07 pm
It's possible BUT the internals are worse on this down move which does not support that scenario.
can you put up a
Posted by delane on 4th of Feb 2010 at 11:46 am
can you put up a chart? thanks.
For internet (and power) emergencies I keep a small notebook around
Posted by macnsc on 4th of Feb 2010 at 11:41 am
with a sprint wireless card so I have a usable fall back machine.