Saturn, looks like it's 3rd wave down, so a bounce would be a
4th wave only. Hell the Fed buys the futures on Sunday night
anyway and Monday's are always up, 18 of the last 20, lol
yes, watch the video. One easy way to tell is that wave
3's don't have divergence via the regular MACD, they have it only
in the histogram, that's how you tell. 5th waves on the other
hand have divergence in the regular MACD. That's one easy way
to distinguish between wave 3 and 5.
now remember the chart I'm referencing is a 30 min chart.
Now if you if you zoom to a smaller time frame you will find 5
waves but remember it will be 5 waves of a small time frame and 5
waves of wave 3 on the 30 min chart etc.. whatever
you mention that before, Steve had mentioned the fact and had
shown a chart to suggest an alt count but the wave structure didn't
look right to me. Wave 1 seemed to be too straight.
The MACD trick with the waves 3 and 5 is really a good piece of
information that a lot of people dont' know off hand. Steve
and I learned that trick years ago and it has been a great tool,
really helps identifying them etc.
because the way I see it doesn't make any sense with any of the
previous counts we were guessing at. Where does your wave 3 start
and how do you break it down? if I understand you correctly the
current low is what?
Can't be the end of 3? there isn't a 5 wave count that makes
sense as all the internal wave 3s would be shortest.
The only way i can figure it is if the current low at 1094 ish
is the end of wave 3 of 5 of the bigger 3. Any input from anyone
would be appreciated.
We are definitely in wave 3 of some sort, MACD stochastics are
pointing straight down of 5 minute charts. Perhaps, 1085 would be
the target for the end of it. I am not betting on it, as the market
could go lower.
Well, I was surprised of that prediction too; I got it from
somebody on this site who subscribed to Corey Rosenbloom. I would
ask for a similar thing from Steve and Matt, when they do an
intraday update. Although with all fairness, this could have been
predicted: a support band would usually mean the bottom of that
band, as far as stopping a decline. I remember seeing the same
thing in fall 2008 on HUI as the final target of the drop: the
support band there turned out to be the bottom of that band,
150.
This market is very tricky, so giving multiple targets and a way
to check which one would be next depending on how the market
behaved on the preceding one, is a must, IMO.
Also, perhaps Matt and Steve could provide an additional service
of providing their intraday indicators from TS, such as $tick,$add,
slopes for those who check the site intraday or for those who have
a special subscription for extra $5-10 a month. This is similar to
Matt's idea of providing real time intraday data for an small extra
fee. I personally don't like trading blind, and I cannot afford to
watch the screen all day: I have a day job. I am reconsidering
going against the market to play the market without having enough
intraday information to make informed decisions. I closed a half of
my shorts too early this morning :(
I can count 7 waves down so far so this decline is not yet
complete if it's an impulse. My advice is to take all the shorter
term counts with a grain of salt and to respect any triggers you
get when trading. Take care.
Nice...
$SPX...
Posted by saturn6 on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 02:58 pm
I had a target for 1100 today so I have to take a long here.
Taken the profit...
Posted by saturn6 on 25th of Jan 2010 at 04:10 am
On the SPX short at 1100 at 1105 just now. I did scalp a few additional trades into the close and caught a nice bounce after hours too.
I suspect there will be a bit more to come but with price above daily pivot high and the at the futures 5min 200MA I have decided to lock in.
Saturn, looks like it's 3rd
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 03:03 pm
Saturn, looks like it's 3rd wave down, so a bounce would be a 4th wave only. Hell the Fed buys the futures on Sunday night anyway and Monday's are always up, 18 of the last 20, lol
Are you sure?
Posted by saturn6 on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 03:04 pm
3rd wave down?
yes, watch the video. One
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 03:15 pm
yes, watch the video. One easy way to tell is that wave 3's don't have divergence via the regular MACD, they have it only in the histogram, that's how you tell. 5th waves on the other hand have divergence in the regular MACD. That's one easy way to distinguish between wave 3 and 5.
now remember the chart I'm referencing is a 30 min chart. Now if you if you zoom to a smaller time frame you will find 5 waves but remember it will be 5 waves of a small time frame and 5 waves of wave 3 on the 30 min chart etc.. whatever
Thanks! - Nice video upd Matt...
Posted by saturn6 on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 03:24 pm
You could have told me before I put my wee long on though (5 S&P) points underwater as I type. Lol!
just remember that little tidbit
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 03:31 pm
just remember that little tidbit for the future about the divergence, when I figured out that divergence trick, it was a big help to me
I heard...
Posted by saturn6 on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 03:40 pm
you mention that before, Steve had mentioned the fact and had shown a chart to suggest an alt count but the wave structure didn't look right to me. Wave 1 seemed to be too straight.
Thanks for answering Saturn's question.
Posted by bobkatg on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 03:18 pm
Thanks for answering Saturn's question. Very helpful.
The MACD trick with the
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 03:24 pm
The MACD trick with the waves 3 and 5 is really a good piece of information that a lot of people dont' know off hand. Steve and I learned that trick years ago and it has been a great tool, really helps identifying them etc.
I'd like to see your count
Posted by perthx on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 03:38 pm
because the way I see it doesn't make any sense with any of the previous counts we were guessing at. Where does your wave 3 start and how do you break it down? if I understand you correctly the current low is what?
Can't be the end of 3? there isn't a 5 wave count that makes sense as all the internal wave 3s would be shortest.
The only way i can figure it is if the current low at 1094 ish is the end of wave 3 of 5 of the bigger 3. Any input from anyone would be appreciated.
ok here's my count
Posted by perthx on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 04:00 pm
since no one has a clue (or is willing to stick their neck out, hehe) here's a guess....
wave 1 from 1150.45 to 1129.50
wave from 1129.25 to 1141.57
wave 3
wave 1/3 from 1141.57 to 1114.84
wave 2/3 1114.84 to 1122.93
wave 3/3
wave 1/3/3 1122.93- 1104.89
wave 2/3/3 1104.89 to 1114.89
wave 3/3/3 in progress and heading LOWER!!!
We are definitely in wave
Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 04:29 pm
We are definitely in wave 3 of some sort, MACD stochastics are pointing straight down of 5 minute charts. Perhaps, 1085 would be the target for the end of it. I am not betting on it, as the market could go lower.
junkie...
Posted by saturn6 on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 04:34 pm
a day earlier would have been more appreciated.
yeah, ouch!
Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 05:49 pm
Well, I was surprised of that prediction too; I got it from somebody on this site who subscribed to Corey Rosenbloom. I would ask for a similar thing from Steve and Matt, when they do an intraday update. Although with all fairness, this could have been predicted: a support band would usually mean the bottom of that band, as far as stopping a decline. I remember seeing the same thing in fall 2008 on HUI as the final target of the drop: the support band there turned out to be the bottom of that band, 150.
This market is very tricky, so giving multiple targets and a way to check which one would be next depending on how the market behaved on the preceding one, is a must, IMO.
Also, perhaps Matt and Steve could provide an additional service of providing their intraday indicators from TS, such as $tick,$add, slopes for those who check the site intraday or for those who have a special subscription for extra $5-10 a month. This is similar to Matt's idea of providing real time intraday data for an small extra fee. I personally don't like trading blind, and I cannot afford to watch the screen all day: I have a day job. I am reconsidering going against the market to play the market without having enough intraday information to make informed decisions. I closed a half of my shorts too early this morning :(
SPX 10
Posted by steve on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 04:40 pm
I can count 7 waves down so far so this decline is not yet complete if it's an impulse. My advice is to take all the shorter term counts with a grain of salt and to respect any triggers you get when trading. Take care.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=18&id=p65637302382&a=182215102&listNum=61
Thanks for all the wonderful input here today.