Here's some interesting market stats: This table shows
that if you bought the 1st day of the month on January, you are
negative by the 4th trading day of the month and up to the middle
of the month. These stats go back to 1961 on the S&P 500,
so pretty interesting.
1. Using SPY prices, the period from the second trading day of
the year through two weeks later was positive only 29% of the years
since '95, with a negatively skewed risk/reward (-4.0% versus
+1.9%).
2. 39% of sentimentrader's indicators are at bearish extremes,
which is itself an extremely high number.
So, statistically speaking.... It's all downhill from here to at
least the middle of Jan. Maybe that explains SRS holding up
in the face of SPX strength....
Market Stats for January
Posted by matt on 5th of Jan 2010 at 11:41 am
Here's some interesting market stats: This table shows that if you bought the 1st day of the month on January, you are negative by the 4th trading day of the month and up to the middle of the month. These stats go back to 1961 on the S&P 500, so pretty interesting.
Today is the 2nd trading day of the month.
Evidence that wave 5 may have ended today, or will end soon
Posted by epmaruggi on 5th of Jan 2010 at 08:44 pm
According to www.sentimentrader.com:
1. Using SPY prices, the period from the second trading day of the year through two weeks later was positive only 29% of the years since '95, with a negatively skewed risk/reward (-4.0% versus +1.9%).
2. 39% of sentimentrader's indicators are at bearish extremes, which is itself an extremely high number.
So, statistically speaking.... It's all
Posted by hillsyde on 5th of Jan 2010 at 11:59 am
So, statistically speaking.... It's all downhill from here to at least the middle of Jan. Maybe that explains SRS holding up in the face of SPX strength....
well, at least that's what
Posted by matt on 5th of Jan 2010 at 12:00 pm
well, at least that's what the stats say. we'll see, but interesting for sure. And yes interesting how SRS is holding up