Posted by marketguy on 17th of Dec 2009 at 02:33 pm
broke support today....maybe a kissback to the broken trendline
and then goodbye (?)....the prior 3 breaks of these trendlines led
to 40 pt pullbacks in the SPX (sometimes very quickly, sometimes
after some waffling)....
I believe the market breaking the fan line today is of
little consequence because it still has yet to break below
support in this range, which may yet develop into a high
base for another leg up .
it didn't break the fan line guys, it's close but it didn't
break it.
And honestly, a low risk long could have been taken at the light
with a tight stop. Remember the SPX filled that gap around
1097, that was the lows I talked about last night.
However 60 period stochastics is still not oversold and that's a
concern of mine because it would take prices lower to work that
down, and of course the 1085 level is the big time
support.
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Dec 2009 at 03:24 pm
depends on how that last line is drawn...if you move it up just
a smidge to include that early Dec touch (where it bounced as
though it was reacting to something) then it was a slight
break today....how it's drawn now it did not...we'll see....
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Dec 2009 at 03:30 pm
I know (never accused anyone of re-drawing anything)...just
saying if one were to connect the last week's low to the line it
would've broken slightly....besides, can't I hope?
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Dec 2009 at 02:49 pm
hopefully (as I've been short)...but we've seen this story too
many times lately so am definitely cautious....I'm anticipating
either a fart right down near here or a run up to 1105-1108 before
we decline in earnest....anything above 1110 and I'll start
preparing for the 1122-1150 run.....
Fan chart
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Dec 2009 at 02:33 pm
broke support today....maybe a kissback to the broken trendline and then goodbye (?)....the prior 3 breaks of these trendlines led to 40 pt pullbacks in the SPX (sometimes very quickly, sometimes after some waffling)....
I believe the market breaking the
Posted by steever on 17th of Dec 2009 at 02:52 pm
I believe the market breaking the fan line today is of little consequence because it still has yet to break below support in this range, which may yet develop into a high base for another leg up .
it didn't break the fan
Posted by matt on 17th of Dec 2009 at 03:19 pm
it didn't break the fan line guys, it's close but it didn't break it.
And honestly, a low risk long could have been taken at the light with a tight stop. Remember the SPX filled that gap around 1097, that was the lows I talked about last night.
However 60 period stochastics is still not oversold and that's a concern of mine because it would take prices lower to work that down, and of course the 1085 level is the big time support.
depends on how that last
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Dec 2009 at 03:24 pm
depends on how that last line is drawn...if you move it up just a smidge to include that early Dec touch (where it bounced as though it was reacting to something) then it was a slight break today....how it's drawn now it did not...we'll see....
here's a daily log and
Posted by matt on 17th of Dec 2009 at 03:29 pm
here's a daily log and linear chart. Log slight breach, Linear no. Tomorrow is options expiration.
SPX daily
SPX daily log
I didn't re-draw the line
Posted by matt on 17th of Dec 2009 at 03:26 pm
I didn't re-draw the line
I know (never accused anyone
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Dec 2009 at 03:30 pm
I know (never accused anyone of re-drawing anything)...just saying if one were to connect the last week's low to the line it would've broken slightly....besides, can't I hope?
Yep you can hope! let's
Posted by matt on 17th of Dec 2009 at 03:33 pm
Yep you can hope! let's see what happens. take your bets on the gap, that's all this market ever does
one thing for sure, this has been the gappiest market on record in my memory
"hope" is a valid investment
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Dec 2009 at 03:51 pm
"hope" is a valid investment strategy isn't it?
yes, the 'Slope of Hope'
Posted by matt on 17th of Dec 2009 at 03:56 pm
yes, the 'Slope of Hope'
agreed....though even on that break
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Dec 2009 at 02:56 pm
agreed....though even on that break we have 1080, 1070ish (gapfill) and then finally 1060....at this point I'll be happy with 1085
You nailed it. a kiss and goodbye!
Posted by safadig on 17th of Dec 2009 at 02:46 pm
hopefully (as I've been short)...but
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Dec 2009 at 02:49 pm
hopefully (as I've been short)...but we've seen this story too many times lately so am definitely cautious....I'm anticipating either a fart right down near here or a run up to 1105-1108 before we decline in earnest....anything above 1110 and I'll start preparing for the 1122-1150 run.....
(as I've been short)
Posted by gustosp on 17th of Dec 2009 at 03:04 pm
You may not Know untill after the gap up or down tomorrow
maybe Matt redrew it as it doesn't show broken now..his that is
Posted by hurricanemalta on 17th of Dec 2009 at 02:40 pm
no I didn't re draw
Posted by matt on 17th of Dec 2009 at 02:47 pm
no I didn't re draw it and it really hasn't broken definitely.
plus here's a daily chart, holding there for now and so is Aroon