Posted by onechosen1 on 14th of Dec 2009 at 09:51 am
If I understand it right, the argument goes...gold falls because
all of the printing and credit creation (trying to reinflate the
bubble with a bubble) is no good if demand for credit is not there,
which mainly comes from a change in risk appetite. The US
consumer is swamped with debt right now and disillusioned with what
has happened. If there is no demand, and a stockpile of debt
1000 miles tall still out there, then savings must go up and
consumption down. As well, US trading partners like Japan,
the EU and China will only allow the US to print $$ so long, then
they will intervene with their own currency protection. In
this scenario, the price for all assets fall (gold probably the
least). See Prechter audio interview about Sept 3 or 13
here on BPT....search "Prechter", go to that date and see
"deflation" audio; he is quite articulate about this and the
interviewer's questions are excellent (who is looking for
inflation, not deflation). Prechter thinks that AFTER the
deflation that MUST take place to delever...THEN there could be
inflation, possibly hyper-inflation (and gold way up)...but depends
on actions govt takes after deflation works its way through the
system...which he says cannot be stopped with any amount of $$
printing.
however, if you followed him over the last three years you'd
have made a TON of money. He called the top in Oct. 3007
and called the bottom in March this year. Everything
about the markets needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but you
can't deny him the last three years.............I'm not saying to
just blinldy trade on his predictions, just saying they have had
value in the recent past............
If I understand it right,
gold to $650 - $700
Posted by onechosen1 on 14th of Dec 2009 at 09:51 am
If I understand it right, the argument goes...gold falls because all of the printing and credit creation (trying to reinflate the bubble with a bubble) is no good if demand for credit is not there, which mainly comes from a change in risk appetite. The US consumer is swamped with debt right now and disillusioned with what has happened. If there is no demand, and a stockpile of debt 1000 miles tall still out there, then savings must go up and consumption down. As well, US trading partners like Japan, the EU and China will only allow the US to print $$ so long, then they will intervene with their own currency protection. In this scenario, the price for all assets fall (gold probably the least). See Prechter audio interview about Sept 3 or 13 here on BPT....search "Prechter", go to that date and see "deflation" audio; he is quite articulate about this and the interviewer's questions are excellent (who is looking for inflation, not deflation). Prechter thinks that AFTER the deflation that MUST take place to delever...THEN there could be inflation, possibly hyper-inflation (and gold way up)...but depends on actions govt takes after deflation works its way through the system...which he says cannot be stopped with any amount of $$ printing.
You guys do know that
Posted by ditch on 14th of Dec 2009 at 09:55 am
You guys do know that Prechter has a terrible track record of predicting markets?
Stop wasting your time an money on him and just listen to Matt and Steve!
Prechter
Posted by Michael on 14th of Dec 2009 at 09:59 am
however, if you followed him over the last three years you'd have made a TON of money. He called the top in Oct. 3007 and called the bottom in March this year. Everything about the markets needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but you can't deny him the last three years.............I'm not saying to just blinldy trade on his predictions, just saying they have had value in the recent past............
I had no intention to
Posted by Palladin on 14th of Dec 2009 at 10:07 am
I had no intention to start a Prechter bashing thread, but if you followed him in "gold" over the past two years, you lost a ton of money.
Now he is still sticking to his guns re gold tanking severely when most other Elliotticians have the opposite view. Who knows!
Prechter
Posted by Michael on 14th of Dec 2009 at 10:09 am
haha -- didn't realize that about gold