On every other sell off, bears on this blog were euphoric
(myself included). Interesting on this sell-off, most people
are agreeing that we are going to see higher prices or re-tests of
highs, or the infamous "head and shoulders". Maybe bears have
been beaten into submission so badly that we are afraid to jinx
ourselves. Maybe I'm reading into this too much. What I
see is that bulls are like trapped rats right now! We broke
over that LT bear trendline... on a gap up and barely held it (on
horrible volume) for three days. Now we have a pretty clear
island reversal (dare I say "top"). Isn't that fakeout
extremely bearish? That news from zerohedge yesterday about
the negative yields on the t-bills was ENORMOUS news!
Something is up that is not out in the markets yet.
IMO, if that island reversal is to hold, there won't be any
penetration of 1095 or higher. Looking at this objectively,
as a bear wanting to swing some shorts, I see 1095 as an area that
should not get taken out. Head and shoulders patterns are
traps!
l have lost about 25k so far shorting this over the last few
months, l want it back but eaten half my capital so keeping it
small for now, l;ll bet your right though for some, they will be
broke and probably looking to see where they can borrow some more
so they can get back in. If l had no money l know l would want to
borrow, it's a long way down from here.
Your right, they are traps, l got caught big time in the July
one and we have rallied ever since.
Personally l think the bears (me too) are afraid to short here
because we know what liars they are and how good at creating money
out of thin air to keep this market up.
Wouldnt suprise if we dropped to 10100 and rallied to 10700,
either way, l plan to keep my small amount of shorts and add if we
get higher numbers, xmas is a dodgy time to short.
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Still no bears?
Posted by kalinm on 20th of Nov 2009 at 12:24 pm
On every other sell off, bears on this blog were euphoric (myself included). Interesting on this sell-off, most people are agreeing that we are going to see higher prices or re-tests of highs, or the infamous "head and shoulders". Maybe bears have been beaten into submission so badly that we are afraid to jinx ourselves. Maybe I'm reading into this too much. What I see is that bulls are like trapped rats right now! We broke over that LT bear trendline... on a gap up and barely held it (on horrible volume) for three days. Now we have a pretty clear island reversal (dare I say "top"). Isn't that fakeout extremely bearish? That news from zerohedge yesterday about the negative yields on the t-bills was ENORMOUS news! Something is up that is not out in the markets yet. IMO, if that island reversal is to hold, there won't be any penetration of 1095 or higher. Looking at this objectively, as a bear wanting to swing some shorts, I see 1095 as an area that should not get taken out. Head and shoulders patterns are traps!
Bears are all broke
Posted by gabebristow on 20th of Nov 2009 at 12:38 pm
just kidding, but I am sure a lot have been injured by this crazy arse market
crazy market indeed
Posted by parki48 on 20th of Nov 2009 at 12:43 pm
l have lost about 25k so far shorting this over the last few months, l want it back but eaten half my capital so keeping it small for now, l;ll bet your right though for some, they will be broke and probably looking to see where they can borrow some more so they can get back in. If l had no money l know l would want to borrow, it's a long way down from here.
traps
Posted by parki48 on 20th of Nov 2009 at 12:38 pm
Your right, they are traps, l got caught big time in the July one and we have rallied ever since.
Personally l think the bears (me too) are afraid to short here because we know what liars they are and how good at creating money out of thin air to keep this market up.
Wouldnt suprise if we dropped to 10100 and rallied to 10700, either way, l plan to keep my small amount of shorts and add if we get higher numbers, xmas is a dodgy time to short.