remember this could just be a 4th wave pullback with a 5th wave
to come later in the week. on the 5 min chart, there is some
positive divergence with a potential bull wedge forming,
Would anyone keep posting this chart (with the same settings) as
we progress into the next week closer to the options expiration?
This is the best chart I've seen to explain the wave structure
unfolding. My thanks goes here.
Darn nice chart cwa - what also support that view is that we
have timing for a possible high next week. The target on the
ES daily chart is 1118. However, we need to see resistance
broken or the market may have already seen it's highs.
Ok regarding my chart - if a downtrend is unfolding then those
indicators will find resistance near the midpoints and remain down
after bounces versus coming back into the green area.
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:38 pm
I have started to take some futures as hedges and will take more
on the next move down. I am hedging all my swing shorts. my
stops will be just below the 30min trendline on the 30 min
chart I just posted. If this is a 5 of 5 of c it should
be very sharp and very quick. this entire 5 of 5 was fast,
but 5 of 5 of 5, what fun. disclaimer: I will not be posting
updates on this position.
Posted by cwa82675 on 16th of Nov 2009 at 10:46 am
this seems to have played out with intensity scaring all the
shorts out and forcing anyone who wasnt long to pile on (see
toggle). we now have neg div on the 30 min charts and
above. a pullback here with a slight push higher will form
neg div on the 5-15 min charts. that along with the backtest of
another trendline had me double my tza and ery and take another 50%
of sds via a sso short. these are all swing positions that I
dont plan on covering unless we only show 3 waves down on the next
move down. dont forget matts fan chart.
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:54 pm
ok raising my stops since its sitting down here, if this is
going to work it should work fast, otherwise im wasting
money...only risking a point now. <edit - now only .5 of a
point.>
cwa - important area of support here on the ES with 15 minute
timing for a low as well. Now let's see if it can produce a
bounce or not. Will need to clear 1091 on ES to suggest
timing is having an effect.
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Nov 2009 at 03:10 pm
lost half a point on my sp fut trade. Im not willing to risk too
much here to catch the 5 of 5 in case I am wrong on the
count. especially at 3 pm, even though it could still play
out. we also dont have much pos div on the short term
timeframes.
They haven't turned up yet through 20 on ANY time period 15 or
below.., btw I picked my first target of 1087 based on a
number of things including that 34 EMA (figuring it wouldn't quite
get there.
A brilliant observation, cwa! So, EMA(13)=1086 is a likely
target for a pullback. Your comments, Steve, provides a good
perspective on what to expect next week. Thanks to both of you!
SPX and Dow look a little like they could be forming falling
bulllish wedges on the 30 and 60 min charts. So maybe your 5th wave
up will indeed become reality. But first I would like to see
another lower low today preferably around 1087 ish or even 1084
ish.
looks like the SPX did a late dump and hit 1084.90 well it may
make that extra point .50-.90 with 15 minutes to go but I
took profits from my 1 day short already.
Even though the 60 STO never turned up yet, I figured I was
better off taking the money and running rather than wait and see
some of it evaporate on a potential late buying spree.
I can always scale back in tomorrow or position again if we
rally tomorrow.
So is this something really bearish if a falling bullish wedge
breaks down and out?
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Nov 2009 at 04:13 pm
sorry if I had anything to do with it. still looks like we
are moving up though, lots of overbought conditions are relieved
with little giveback in price. tomorrow is going to be
boring, but Monday should be interesting.
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SPX 5 min
Posted by matt on 12th of Nov 2009 at 01:48 pm
remember this could just be a 4th wave pullback with a 5th wave to come later in the week. on the 5 min chart, there is some positive divergence with a potential bull wedge forming,
watch 60 period stochastics as a guide
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=5&b=3&g=0&i=p42144331022&a=168119545&r=5967
Nice chart and comments Matt
Posted by steve on 12th of Nov 2009 at 01:54 pm
Nice chart and comments Matt - will need to clear the blue horizontal resistance overhead.
I agree. think this is
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:10 pm
I agree. think this is a fourth wave.
MACD(13,144,13) on a 30-minute chart of $SPX
Posted by junkie on 12th of Nov 2009 at 03:04 pm
Would anyone keep posting this chart (with the same settings) as we progress into the next week closer to the options expiration? This is the best chart I've seen to explain the wave structure unfolding. My thanks goes here.
Darn nice chart cwa -
Posted by steve on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:14 pm
Darn nice chart cwa - what also support that view is that we have timing for a possible high next week. The target on the ES daily chart is 1118. However, we need to see resistance broken or the market may have already seen it's highs.
thanks steve, but thats yours
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:34 pm
thanks steve, but thats yours and matts chart
Here is another one of yours! perthx you may like this based on your one more move down thought.
Ok regarding my chart -
Posted by steve on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:49 pm
Ok regarding my chart - if a downtrend is unfolding then those indicators will find resistance near the midpoints and remain down after bounces versus coming back into the green area.
I have started to take
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:38 pm
I have started to take some futures as hedges and will take more on the next move down. I am hedging all my swing shorts. my stops will be just below the 30min trendline on the 30 min chart I just posted. If this is a 5 of 5 of c it should be very sharp and very quick. this entire 5 of 5 was fast, but 5 of 5 of 5, what fun. disclaimer: I will not be posting updates on this position.
this seems to have played
Posted by cwa82675 on 16th of Nov 2009 at 10:46 am
this seems to have played out with intensity scaring all the shorts out and forcing anyone who wasnt long to pile on (see toggle). we now have neg div on the 30 min charts and above. a pullback here with a slight push higher will form neg div on the 5-15 min charts. that along with the backtest of another trendline had me double my tza and ery and take another 50% of sds via a sso short. these are all swing positions that I dont plan on covering unless we only show 3 waves down on the next move down. dont forget matts fan chart.
there we go. sp futures
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:50 pm
there we go. sp futures at 1086.25 with a stop at 1084.25. risking 2 points for 15+ profit...
ok raising my stops since
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:54 pm
ok raising my stops since its sitting down here, if this is going to work it should work fast, otherwise im wasting money...only risking a point now. <edit - now only .5 of a point.>
cwa - important area of
Posted by steve on 12th of Nov 2009 at 03:01 pm
cwa - important area of support here on the ES with 15 minute timing for a low as well. Now let's see if it can produce a bounce or not. Will need to clear 1091 on ES to suggest timing is having an effect.
lost half a point on
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Nov 2009 at 03:10 pm
lost half a point on my sp fut trade. Im not willing to risk too much here to catch the 5 of 5 in case I am wrong on the count. especially at 3 pm, even though it could still play out. we also dont have much pos div on the short term timeframes.
SPX --watch those 60 STO
Posted by perthx on 12th of Nov 2009 at 03:03 pm
They haven't turned up yet through 20 on ANY time period 15 or below.., btw I picked my first target of 1087 based on a number of things including that 34 EMA (figuring it wouldn't quite get there.
A brilliant observation, cwa! So,
Posted by junkie on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:33 pm
A brilliant observation, cwa! So, EMA(13)=1086 is a likely target for a pullback. Your comments, Steve, provides a good perspective on what to expect next week. Thanks to both of you!
Falling Bullish wedges
Posted by perthx on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:26 pm
SPX and Dow look a little like they could be forming falling bulllish wedges on the 30 and 60 min charts. So maybe your 5th wave up will indeed become reality. But first I would like to see another lower low today preferably around 1087 ish or even 1084 ish.
SPX late dump
Posted by perthx on 12th of Nov 2009 at 03:47 pm
looks like the SPX did a late dump and hit 1084.90 well it may make that extra point .50-.90 with 15 minutes to go but I took profits from my 1 day short already.
Even though the 60 STO never turned up yet, I figured I was better off taking the money and running rather than wait and see some of it evaporate on a potential late buying spree.
I can always scale back in tomorrow or position again if we rally tomorrow.
So is this something really bearish if a falling bullish wedge breaks down and out?
sorry if I had anything
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Nov 2009 at 04:13 pm
sorry if I had anything to do with it. still looks like we are moving up though, lots of overbought conditions are relieved with little giveback in price. tomorrow is going to be boring, but Monday should be interesting.