Previously posted by burkmere (Title: Not so fast,
bulls...) :(
toggle)
Ord's still bearish and notes the lack of volume..now, I've
mentioned before he's often wrong, but we'll see..this from
decisionpoint.com and it's a free site so I assume it's ok to post
Ord here..
"Today’s rally in the SPY came in at 184 million shares. The gap
between 7/1 and 7/2 came in at 212 million shares and therefore the
gap test came in at 16% lighter volume and a bearish sign. The
market rallied higher then the gap and tested the high of the first
Right shoulder that formed in late June and volume again came in
17% lighter. Gap tests and previous highs tests on lighter volume
suggest false breaks and implies at some point the market should
reverse. Volume need to be at least 212 million shares today to
confirm the uptrend and that did not happen. There is another gap
higher that formed on 6/15 and the 94 level and the market may try
to touch that gap before this Right Shoulder is complete. Either
volume picks up here and confirms the uptrend or the next down leg
is about to begin. Since volume was lacking today the downtrend
scenario is still in our favor. This H&D has a downside target
near 82 and a 50% retracement of the rally from the March low would
give a target to the 81 level. We have another down side target
near 74 that is also a possibility. We will see how the pull back
unfolds in the weeks to come. We are short the SPX at 883.92."
However, another site I follow and he does
daily video updates similar to Matt and Steve ( and
he's been very, very good).is still in the "right shoulder forming"
camp.....also notes the "spike" low in the VIX..etc, etc..
I guess I'm more in the bear camp, too..but we shall see...
The rally from monday's low at SPX 875 has been quite
strong, nearly 50 points in 48 hours. With today's high reaching
SPX 934 it overlaps the entire decline from 932 to 869. Not exactly
what one would be expecting for a continuing downtrend.
In fact, the NAZ has already put in a trend reversal
and is now uptrending. The market is extremely overbought short
term and due for a pullback.
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Some may have missed these comments
SPX chart from jtverr on blog
Posted by steve on 16th of Jul 2009 at 12:11 pm
Ord's still bearish and notes the lack of volume..now, I've mentioned before he's often wrong, but we'll see..this from decisionpoint.com and it's a free site so I assume it's ok to post Ord here..
"Today’s rally in the SPY came in at 184 million shares. The gap between 7/1 and 7/2 came in at 212 million shares and therefore the gap test came in at 16% lighter volume and a bearish sign. The market rallied higher then the gap and tested the high of the first Right shoulder that formed in late June and volume again came in 17% lighter. Gap tests and previous highs tests on lighter volume suggest false breaks and implies at some point the market should reverse. Volume need to be at least 212 million shares today to confirm the uptrend and that did not happen. There is another gap higher that formed on 6/15 and the 94 level and the market may try to touch that gap before this Right Shoulder is complete. Either volume picks up here and confirms the uptrend or the next down leg is about to begin. Since volume was lacking today the downtrend scenario is still in our favor. This H&D has a downside target near 82 and a 50% retracement of the rally from the March low would give a target to the 81 level. We have another down side target near 74 that is also a possibility. We will see how the pull back unfolds in the weeks to come. We are short the SPX at 883.92."
However, another site I follow and he does daily video updates similar to Matt and Steve ( and he's been very, very good).is still in the "right shoulder forming" camp.....also notes the "spike" low in the VIX..etc, etc..
I guess I'm more in the bear camp, too..but we shall see...
The rally from monday's low at SPX 875 has been quite strong, nearly 50 points in 48 hours. With today's high reaching SPX 934 it overlaps the entire decline from 932 to 869. Not exactly what one would be expecting for a continuing downtrend. In fact, the NAZ has already put in a trend reversal and is now uptrending. The market is extremely overbought short term and due for a pullback.