Posted by bullbull on 13th of Jul 2009 at 01:36 am
I'll just list the reasoning for bullish case:
(a). Oct/Nov VIX spike is hisotric spike in record, the March
low associated with lower VIX, it shows market volitilty abating.
Does anyone imagine another LEH failing give global financial
system a shoke? Very unlikely.
(b). This is not a "Great Depression"! The US economy was cut in
half during the 1929-1932, do you imagine this case happen again,
NO. Even the most bearish economist predict slow recovery in 2010.
Other than great depression, all the rest of the crash is %50. This
time is NOT different from other time. We've seen worst times.
(c). The P/E10 is ~12 in March low. However, there is enough
reasons that why it is not as long as 1930 and 1970~ bear market
low. For example, 1970 market has huge interest rate, and no
monteory policy being applied. So we can argue you won't see signal
digital P/E10 this time.
(d). don't underestimate government money printing and stimulus,
it buys time for economy recovery.
(e). this is global economy, even we have a sluggish 2009, the
world wide economy is back on its footing 2010.
Could we in a new bull market? maybe, but we also could be on a
choppy trending market, and you can expect normal return. It is
very unlikely we will hit a March low again. Just my opinion, based
on some fundamental reasoning.
People always try to be "contrarian", it is hard to be a "real
one". When you see most of people in blog is bearish.. you get to
be wondering: which side is actually the "true" contrarian.
I don't know how EW can forecast the future. Just try to unwind
the historic Dow and S&P chart to 1970 (if you use telechart),
and try to predict what will happen, you will find it is never easy
to predict what NEXT.
Posted by shamutooth on 13th of Jul 2009 at 09:24 am
Bullbull,Why not just make it simple? Ignore everyone's opinion
because that's all it is and use Matt's KISS 13/34 crossover
on the weekly chart.It's worked very well going way back to even
the Great Depression.So,if this is going to be a horrible time as
in past post credit bubble contractions,you're protected.If we go
up from here,buy the cross and then hold for possibly years.It's
that simple and you get best of both worlds without guessing
which camp to be in.
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Ok, my A, B, C on Bull market case
California vs Texas
Posted by bullbull on 13th of Jul 2009 at 01:36 am
I'll just list the reasoning for bullish case:
(a). Oct/Nov VIX spike is hisotric spike in record, the March low associated with lower VIX, it shows market volitilty abating. Does anyone imagine another LEH failing give global financial system a shoke? Very unlikely.
(b). This is not a "Great Depression"! The US economy was cut in half during the 1929-1932, do you imagine this case happen again, NO. Even the most bearish economist predict slow recovery in 2010. Other than great depression, all the rest of the crash is %50. This time is NOT different from other time. We've seen worst times.
(c). The P/E10 is ~12 in March low. However, there is enough reasons that why it is not as long as 1930 and 1970~ bear market low. For example, 1970 market has huge interest rate, and no monteory policy being applied. So we can argue you won't see signal digital P/E10 this time.
(d). don't underestimate government money printing and stimulus, it buys time for economy recovery.
(e). this is global economy, even we have a sluggish 2009, the world wide economy is back on its footing 2010.
Could we in a new bull market? maybe, but we also could be on a choppy trending market, and you can expect normal return. It is very unlikely we will hit a March low again. Just my opinion, based on some fundamental reasoning.
People always try to be "contrarian", it is hard to be a "real one". When you see most of people in blog is bearish.. you get to be wondering: which side is actually the "true" contrarian.
I don't know how EW can forecast the future. Just try to unwind the historic Dow and S&P chart to 1970 (if you use telechart), and try to predict what will happen, you will find it is never easy to predict what NEXT.
Bullbull,Why not just make it
Posted by shamutooth on 13th of Jul 2009 at 09:24 am
Bullbull,Why not just make it simple? Ignore everyone's opinion because that's all it is and use Matt's KISS 13/34 crossover on the weekly chart.It's worked very well going way back to even the Great Depression.So,if this is going to be a horrible time as in past post credit bubble contractions,you're protected.If we go up from here,buy the cross and then hold for possibly years.It's that simple and you get best of both worlds without guessing which camp to be in.