Posted by junkmaylbox on 8th of Jun 2009 at 11:49 pm
One argument against it is seasonality. While sell in May and go
away still works, markets normally recover by August and rally in
September. While I don't see how markets could go higher from this
point -- 200MA normally cap rallies and require 6-8 months of
consolidation to go higher -- we could see at double top in late
August or early September at the same prices we have now.
Another argument is proximity to the last trough. Bottoms occur
at least 3 months apart -- confer that for November and March. One
catalyst of both troughs was Christmas spendings, which are out of
the picture now for a while.
So your apealing theory does not seem to hold water, IMO.
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One argument against it is
the Wave count
Posted by junkmaylbox on 8th of Jun 2009 at 11:49 pm
One argument against it is seasonality. While sell in May and go away still works, markets normally recover by August and rally in September. While I don't see how markets could go higher from this point -- 200MA normally cap rallies and require 6-8 months of consolidation to go higher -- we could see at double top in late August or early September at the same prices we have now.
Another argument is proximity to the last trough. Bottoms occur at least 3 months apart -- confer that for November and March. One catalyst of both troughs was Christmas spendings, which are out of the picture now for a while.
So your apealing theory does not seem to hold water, IMO.