Posted by rgoodwin on 26th of May 2009 at 10:25 am
I was having similar thoughts. Just prior to announcing
increased CC - they announce the largest home price decline ever. I
don't have any neighbors, friends, or family that are feeling all
giddy either.
Posted by rgoodwin on 26th of May 2009 at 10:31 am
It has to be a manipulated number - there is no explanation for
it to be higher. Guess it doesn't matter to a trader - just trade
what the market gives you, but seems to be manipulations of this
sort do more to get the little guy, or regular guy into a lot of
trouble.
I just called the conf. board about this - it is a number based
on a survey of 5,000 households randomly selected each month but
supposedly 'representative'. Anyone who has studied statistics
knows that such a small sample does leave it self open to large
error. But it is the reaction that is important. There clearly are
investors who want to get on the bull bus just before it goes off
the cliff.
Posted by littlemule on 26th of May 2009 at 11:22 am
Forty years ago, I did a 20 year study of this index compared to
the S & P. Confidence follows the market so it's not unusual to
see the pop in confidence given the rally off the March low.
Posted by hornsant on 26th of May 2009 at 10:42 am
The thing is that it does not feel like the right environment to
put money to work. I am a bit stuned by the manipulative nature of
numbers that should reflect real economic conditions... because the
money I put to work every time I trade is real, but that is just
MHO.
Posted by elboroom on 26th of May 2009 at 10:39 am
Ravun,
You are most likely correct on manipulation, but that has been
my whole point in arguing the bullish scenario. Manipulation is
prevalent everywhere. Our gov't is hellbent on staving off
deflation and seeing the market rise. They have fostered huge
devaluation of the $USD to achieve it. That's the bottom line. I
just trade in that direction until it doesn't work any more.
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consumer confidence
Posted by hornsant on 26th of May 2009 at 10:05 am
Do any of you here in BPT feel extra confident as the rest of the consumers feel ?
Consumer Confidence
Posted by rgoodwin on 26th of May 2009 at 10:25 am
I was having similar thoughts. Just prior to announcing increased CC - they announce the largest home price decline ever. I don't have any neighbors, friends, or family that are feeling all giddy either.
Is
Posted by ravun on 26th of May 2009 at 10:27 am
actually unreal...connived or what?
Ravun
Posted by rgoodwin on 26th of May 2009 at 10:31 am
It has to be a manipulated number - there is no explanation for it to be higher. Guess it doesn't matter to a trader - just trade what the market gives you, but seems to be manipulations of this sort do more to get the little guy, or regular guy into a lot of trouble.
I just called the conf.
Posted by PA on 26th of May 2009 at 11:02 am
I just called the conf. board about this - it is a number based on a survey of 5,000 households randomly selected each month but supposedly 'representative'. Anyone who has studied statistics knows that such a small sample does leave it self open to large error. But it is the reaction that is important. There clearly are investors who want to get on the bull bus just before it goes off the cliff.
Conference Board
Posted by littlemule on 26th of May 2009 at 11:22 am
Forty years ago, I did a 20 year study of this index compared to the S & P. Confidence follows the market so it's not unusual to see the pop in confidence given the rally off the March low.
The thing is that it
Posted by hornsant on 26th of May 2009 at 10:42 am
The thing is that it does not feel like the right environment to put money to work. I am a bit stuned by the manipulative nature of numbers that should reflect real economic conditions... because the money I put to work every time I trade is real, but that is just MHO.
Consumer confidence
Posted by elboroom on 26th of May 2009 at 10:39 am
Ravun,
You are most likely correct on manipulation, but that has been my whole point in arguing the bullish scenario. Manipulation is prevalent everywhere. Our gov't is hellbent on staving off deflation and seeing the market rise. They have fostered huge devaluation of the $USD to achieve it. That's the bottom line. I just trade in that direction until it doesn't work any more.