If I miss a breakout, I usually don't bother with it. Is
it best to wait for another pullback or does one take a small
position with the next up move and use the high of the breakout as
one's stop.?
Overbought markets can continue to get more overbought.
Risk/reward is leaning more towards risk if your coming in with
new intermediate investments. (This excludes daytraders, most of
whom are nimble enough to play quick moves.)
Those that bought into market near march lows have built-in
margin of safety.
Allowing yourself to feel anxiety about missing an opportunity
will only make you irrational.
There's always opportunities around the corner.
e.g. We may be setting up for great short-selling
opportunity?
well, I still think that a market pullback from here would not
be the
'final' topto this
counter trend bear market rally; one where you could just short and
go away and forget about it for the rest of the year. I think it
would form a higher low and move higher again (but could retrace
38% or more of the whole move up). Just put things into
perspective, the market fell for 17 straight months and it's only
been up for 2 months, so it seems to to that it would last a little
longer than 2 months. Also the SPX hasn't even retraced 38%
of the whole move down, I think overall that the SPX will make it
up to the 1000 area or higher, but I doubt that it just keeps going
without any pullback and yes the market is now extremely overbought
now, but I really don't care, I take what the market gives
me. I could be wrong, but that's what I see.
Again, when the market finally pulls back, that will give more
clues i.e the nature of the pullback
You and Steve have been
right on the money during this bear market.
I think the fact that you guys approach market with
"I take what the market gives me"keeps subscribers
on the right side of fence at all times and loving this site.
I feel for subscribers of sites like one mentioned yesterday
(WSW) where some stubornly stick with their convictions and get
head handed to them.
Its not wise to fight the market
Keep up the good work.
Lp
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
NXG - I think I posted
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2009 at 01:31 am
NXG - I think I posted this one last week here and in one of the updates, well it broke out today
Breakout
Posted by winter39 on 5th of May 2009 at 08:28 am
If I miss a breakout, I usually don't bother with it. Is it best to wait for another pullback or does one take a small position with the next up move and use the high of the breakout as one's stop.?
Thank you for your thoughts.
re: breakout
Posted by lpwise on 5th of May 2009 at 09:03 am
Stocks are overbought.
Overbought markets can continue to get more overbought.
Risk/reward is leaning more towards risk if your coming in with new intermediate investments. (This excludes daytraders, most of whom are nimble enough to play quick moves.)
Those that bought into market near march lows have built-in margin of safety.
Allowing yourself to feel anxiety about missing an opportunity will only make you irrational.
There's always opportunities around the corner.
e.g. We may be setting up for great short-selling opportunity?
Lp
well, I still think that
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2009 at 09:15 am
well, I still think that a market pullback from here would not be the 'final' topto this counter trend bear market rally; one where you could just short and go away and forget about it for the rest of the year. I think it would form a higher low and move higher again (but could retrace 38% or more of the whole move up). Just put things into perspective, the market fell for 17 straight months and it's only been up for 2 months, so it seems to to that it would last a little longer than 2 months. Also the SPX hasn't even retraced 38% of the whole move down, I think overall that the SPX will make it up to the 1000 area or higher, but I doubt that it just keeps going without any pullback and yes the market is now extremely overbought now, but I really don't care, I take what the market gives me. I could be wrong, but that's what I see. Again, when the market finally pulls back, that will give more clues i.e the nature of the pullback
Pretty
Posted by ravun on 5th of May 2009 at 09:43 am
good assumption
re: matt and steve
Posted by lpwise on 5th of May 2009 at 09:34 am
Matt I agree 100% with your assessment.
You and Steve have been right on the money during this bear market.
I think the fact that you guys approach market with "I take what the market gives me"keeps subscribers on the right side of fence at all times and loving this site.
I feel for subscribers of sites like one mentioned yesterday (WSW) where some stubornly stick with their convictions and get head handed to them.
Its not wise to fight the market
Keep up the good work.
Lp