here's a cool video that I made back in 2007, I forget about it
and just ran across it again after looking at some of my past
updates. It shows the statistics in detail of the best 6
months time of the year. What is fascinating is that at the
time I made the video, $10K invested only from May - Nov each and
every year from 1950 - 2006 would only have made $341!
However $10K invested every year only from Nov - Apr 30 would have
produced $583K!! wow, the difference is crazy. I should
update the stats when I have some time. However I guess this
basically played out last year as well, for example it would have
had you in the market from Nov - Apr 30th (you would have been
down), but better than being in the market from May - Nov1.
Now what this video does not show is that there is a MACD crossover
strategy that takes the return up many fold, it is discussed in the
'Stock Traders Almanac'.
this is not something for traders to us, I'm just posting it out
of interest as I was reminded of it after looking back at some of
my old videos. maybe I'll update those stats again when I
have time
Don't old-time traders say much the same thing? I've heard a
saying which I can't recall verbatim but says something like "in
May, go away." The reasoning is, as I remember it, that the markets
are dull during nice weather because many folks are on vacation or
just plain taking a break from beating their heads on the mystic
wall of Wall Street. Many traders follow seasonal price patterns, I
believe.
one of my old videos
Posted by matt on 31st of Mar 2009 at 08:30 pm
here's a cool video that I made back in 2007, I forget about it and just ran across it again after looking at some of my past updates. It shows the statistics in detail of the best 6 months time of the year. What is fascinating is that at the time I made the video, $10K invested only from May - Nov each and every year from 1950 - 2006 would only have made $341! However $10K invested every year only from Nov - Apr 30 would have produced $583K!! wow, the difference is crazy. I should update the stats when I have some time. However I guess this basically played out last year as well, for example it would have had you in the market from Nov - Apr 30th (you would have been down), but better than being in the market from May - Nov1. Now what this video does not show is that there is a MACD crossover strategy that takes the return up many fold, it is discussed in the 'Stock Traders Almanac'.
this is not something for traders to us, I'm just posting it out of interest as I was reminded of it after looking back at some of my old videos. maybe I'll update those stats again when I have time
video - 6 month switching strategy
Don't old-time traders say much
Posted by druck on 4th of Apr 2009 at 11:39 am
Don't old-time traders say much the same thing? I've heard a saying which I can't recall verbatim but says something like "in May, go away." The reasoning is, as I remember it, that the markets are dull during nice weather because many folks are on vacation or just plain taking a break from beating their heads on the mystic wall of Wall Street. Many traders follow seasonal price patterns, I believe.
The
Posted by ravun on 4th of Apr 2009 at 12:34 pm
saying is "Sell in May and go away"
Now don't go assuming I am an old timer...))
Brilliant. Your observation is duly
Posted by siewyin on 31st of Mar 2009 at 10:44 pm
Brilliant. Your observation is duly noted. Lets see how april treats us.
Matt, when you did that analysis
Posted by paige386 on 31st of Mar 2009 at 09:31 pm
Matt,
when you did that analysis did you take into account shorting or short etfs or was it just long?
You ran across it did you..
Posted by ravun on 1st of Apr 2009 at 03:11 am
hehehe
Very good video Matt....
just Long, 10K invested in
Posted by matt on 31st of Mar 2009 at 10:08 pm
just Long, 10K invested in the Dow for the two 6 month time frames