OK, I see MY MISTAKE. I simply took the test of the upper
resistance (along with much bearish sentiment) as a Sell signal and
went short big-time at the close on
March 12. There was no confirmed Sell signal - my bad. The
Daily SPX 5,3,3 full stochastic started to signal a Bearish cross a
week later (you posted a Warning
on 3/18 and it appears to have crossed down the next day),
but at much higher levels. Had I shorted there at that valid
Sell signal on 3/19, I would have experienced a much smaller loss
today. Instead, I took comfort in that Bearish cross on 3/19 and
held my imprudent shorts until we were solidly above 804 today. So,
I did learn from this.
Due to my schedule, I can only react to major reversal signals
that you show on the nightly update, such as the 5,3,3 full
stochastic crosses. Next time:
1) I will adhere to the 5,3,3 full stochastic more strictly to
decide which day to act - i.e. I will not Sell halfway between the
last Bullish cross and the eventual next Bearish cross.
2) I will look at the daily $NYMO oscillator to decide which day
to act - i.e. it looks like we are nearly overbought now.
3) For timing intra-day, it sounds like the $TICK chart might be
a good indicator of a reversal. How much does StockCharts charge
for the rights to see that?
I have switched to a heavy long bias at the end of the day.
Hopefully, tonight's update will give some clues if I should hold
my longs. Thanks!
Posted by dodgerdog on 24th of Mar 2009 at 12:35 am
Stockcharts is quite cheap - like the cost of a few trades and
the charts can save you a bundle if used effectively. Anyway,
be careful chasing this market on the long side up here as well
since we could get a deep pullback fairly soon. I prefer to
buy pullbacks but if long keep stops in place.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Steve, OK, I see MY MISTAKE.
SPX 5 min chart.png Maybe? that's a 5 min chart so ...
Posted by sethbru on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 10:44 pm
Steve,
OK, I see MY MISTAKE. I simply took the test of the upper resistance (along with much bearish sentiment) as a Sell signal and went short big-time at the close on
March 12. There was no confirmed Sell signal - my bad. The Daily SPX 5,3,3 full stochastic started to signal a Bearish cross a week later (you posted a Warning
on 3/18 and it appears to have crossed down the next day), but at much higher levels. Had I shorted there at that valid Sell signal on 3/19, I would have experienced a much smaller loss today. Instead, I took comfort in that Bearish cross on 3/19 and held my imprudent shorts until we were solidly above 804 today. So, I did learn from this.
Due to my schedule, I can only react to major reversal signals that you show on the nightly update, such as the 5,3,3 full stochastic crosses. Next time:
1) I will adhere to the 5,3,3 full stochastic more strictly to decide which day to act - i.e. I will not Sell halfway between the last Bullish cross and the eventual next Bearish cross.
2) I will look at the daily $NYMO oscillator to decide which day to act - i.e. it looks like we are nearly overbought now.
3) For timing intra-day, it sounds like the $TICK chart might be a good indicator of a reversal. How much does StockCharts charge for the rights to see that?
I have switched to a heavy long bias at the end of the day. Hopefully, tonight's update will give some clues if I should hold my longs. Thanks!
Seth
Stockcharts is quite cheap -
Posted by dodgerdog on 24th of Mar 2009 at 12:35 am
Stockcharts is quite cheap - like the cost of a few trades and the charts can save you a bundle if used effectively. Anyway, be careful chasing this market on the long side up here as well since we could get a deep pullback fairly soon. I prefer to buy pullbacks but if long keep stops in place.