rp, Thanks for clarifying your definition of target. I needed to
post what I had posted in order to write down without thinking or
analysing a likely target for a pull back. I suffer from selling
too early, way too early out of fear that my gains will disappear.
I appreciate your considerations on this subject and taking time to
post them late in the day. I value your critique and your comments,
and am glad if you disagree :-) (which does not happen often)
My hunch tells me that the bottom is in (mostly because the
target of 6600 has already been met) and the rally is very powerful
at this point. I am not going to trade off that belief, I will sell
in the 820-810 range by the end of this week, unless the market
compels me to reconsider my hypothesis. I am 141% short (41% on the
margin, I did that as an exception) now, and will get off the
margin at the 38% retracement at 735ish.
So far my scenario is the same as in November last year: a
pullback to retest the strong support at 800-816 and more rallying
up, back then. This time it's likely to be 700-715ish, perhaps as
high as 720. I don't think I could project beyond that time
frame.
Good luck with your trades!
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Some likely scenario for swing trading for me
Posted by junkmaylbox on 17th of Mar 2009 at 04:24 am
rp, Thanks for clarifying your definition of target. I needed to post what I had posted in order to write down without thinking or analysing a likely target for a pull back. I suffer from selling too early, way too early out of fear that my gains will disappear. I appreciate your considerations on this subject and taking time to post them late in the day. I value your critique and your comments, and am glad if you disagree :-) (which does not happen often)
My hunch tells me that the bottom is in (mostly because the target of 6600 has already been met) and the rally is very powerful at this point. I am not going to trade off that belief, I will sell in the 820-810 range by the end of this week, unless the market compels me to reconsider my hypothesis. I am 141% short (41% on the margin, I did that as an exception) now, and will get off the margin at the 38% retracement at 735ish.
So far my scenario is the same as in November last year: a pullback to retest the strong support at 800-816 and more rallying up, back then. This time it's likely to be 700-715ish, perhaps as high as 720. I don't think I could project beyond that time frame.
Good luck with your trades!