Posted by junkmaylbox on 19th of Feb 2009 at 07:35 pm
I would start buying when RSI gets below 30 or we go below 750
on $SPX, whichever occurs earlier. I don't expect indexes to go
much lower than the November 21 lows, because this is a retest. We
might ever reverse tomorrow if the market gaps down and drops
really hard in the morning.
Another criterion that I would use is to compute the difference
between the MA(50) and the price. Any time the distance is above
27-30%, a reversal is imminent. Right now the distance is 17%. If
XLF is below 6 (currently MA(50)=9.03) , it would be a terrific
buying opportunity.
Posted by canadianguy on 19th of Feb 2009 at 11:02 pm
well i looked back at the october lows and in october the xlf
hit 12ish while the 50sma was over 20. That was 40% below the
50sma. The November low was 50 sma of 16 and the XLF was at 9 so
again 45% below. Right now I have the 50sma at 11ish so 55-60% of
that brings XLF to 6ish. That would bring UYG to 40% lower from
here, about $1.40.
Who knows if it gets there but if it does I think it would
warrant a good speculation with the expectation of 50% or more in a
couple of days..
UYG
uyg
Posted by junkmaylbox on 19th of Feb 2009 at 07:35 pm
I would start buying when RSI gets below 30 or we go below 750 on $SPX, whichever occurs earlier. I don't expect indexes to go much lower than the November 21 lows, because this is a retest. We might ever reverse tomorrow if the market gaps down and drops really hard in the morning.
Another criterion that I would use is to compute the difference between the MA(50) and the price. Any time the distance is above 27-30%, a reversal is imminent. Right now the distance is 17%. If XLF is below 6 (currently MA(50)=9.03) , it would be a terrific buying opportunity.
For what it's worth.
well i looked back at
Posted by canadianguy on 19th of Feb 2009 at 11:02 pm
well i looked back at the october lows and in october the xlf hit 12ish while the 50sma was over 20. That was 40% below the 50sma. The November low was 50 sma of 16 and the XLF was at 9 so again 45% below. Right now I have the 50sma at 11ish so 55-60% of that brings XLF to 6ish. That would bring UYG to 40% lower from here, about $1.40.
Who knows if it gets there but if it does I think it would warrant a good speculation with the expectation of 50% or more in a couple of days..
UYG
Posted by junkmaylbox on 20th of Feb 2009 at 04:06 am
I have entered two large "stink bids" for UYG at 1.50 and URE at 2.05 this evening.
UYG-correction
Posted by junkmaylbox on 19th of Feb 2009 at 07:56 pm
I meant MA(20), not MA(50), and calculations are made for XLF, not for UYG.