Yep it was a hard day -- was looking like it would redeem itself
for my shorts only to get smacked at the end. I can relate to your
wondering sometimes which bit of analysis to give more weight to.
Longer term it seems clear that Matt and Steve are looking for new
lows and I respect that they've made a clear commitment in that
respect. Shorter term I agree there often seem to be conflicts like
the triangle break vs. the strong support below and the divergence.
Little bit like "On the one hand...but on the other hand..." -- I
understand that they can't give us definite answers especially
lately but in the end we still have to decide what to do or whether
to stand aside. I've been leaning towards using the systems to get
my decision making out of it -- I don't think I'm very good at
these decisions at least the last number of months. Anyway thanks
for posting your thinking.
Posted by dodgerdog on 12th of Feb 2009 at 06:34 pm
bkout - there is no conflict when stating a triangle break with
support below - those are facts and support is support until it's
NOT. The triangle break provided for some downside movement
(nearly 25 SPX points) before reversing at support. Those
supports and divergences would have you on alert to take some
profits if they are not negated on the breakdown. I even
posted today to expect a boucne just before the rally
unfolded. You have to accept what the market if giving at
this time or else look longer term with wider stops. Quite
simply, this is not an easy market to trade so you have to be
focused and have a plan tailored to your own trading objectives and
risk tolerances.
great response dodger! Technical analysis works and that
triangle did give 25 SPX points to the downside so one could have
tightened up stops if short. Or if you shorted at higher
levels, you could stay short, it's your choice.
All day long I posted the bull wedge developing on the SPX with
the multiple points of positive divergence developing, that was
something to take note of. Then of course the market rallies
hard on speculation.
The PPT is about and the way the market is trading, it's all
traders and it feels manipulated as well. That's why it's
still a good idea to take profits in this market, it's a traders
market and is manipulated anyway.
Now regarding the comment about the big picture, yes we are in a
horrible bear market. I dont' care if the SPX rallies 250
points, it will still be in a bear market!
I took profits just as the news broke but my decision was based
on matt and steves comments on relentlessly taking profits in this
screwed up market. also checking the blogs regularly and the
dynamic links are key. that wedge matt put up w/pos divergence
really convinced me to be on the lookout. thanks matt. for me and
my clients!!!!
Great Point Dodger ... That's why I'm staying in cash.
This is a "Run the Stops Only" IMHO market currently.
It's not trending therefore unless you can watch it every hour
(Which I cannot next couple weeks) staying on the sidelines.
Posted by dowjones4k on 12th of Feb 2009 at 06:00 pm
i find it more helpful to look at the morning charts formulate
my own thoughts first then listen to their commentary - which
lately i totally ignore.
i do not play any current month options and set my goals more to
long term thinking on the downside as i believe this is a
depression we heading into.
i have studied the 1929 charts a lot and formulate my strategy
around that. i have done this since November 20. i have
bought double short funds and sold calls untill lately as i believe
we are ready for a big move. i have found this has cut out my
whipsaws.
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canadianguy, Yep it was a hard
SPX 10 min chart.pngPer my 10 min chart way earlier ...
Posted by bkout3 on 12th of Feb 2009 at 04:24 pm
canadianguy,
Yep it was a hard day -- was looking like it would redeem itself for my shorts only to get smacked at the end. I can relate to your wondering sometimes which bit of analysis to give more weight to. Longer term it seems clear that Matt and Steve are looking for new lows and I respect that they've made a clear commitment in that respect. Shorter term I agree there often seem to be conflicts like the triangle break vs. the strong support below and the divergence. Little bit like "On the one hand...but on the other hand..." -- I understand that they can't give us definite answers especially lately but in the end we still have to decide what to do or whether to stand aside. I've been leaning towards using the systems to get my decision making out of it -- I don't think I'm very good at these decisions at least the last number of months. Anyway thanks for posting your thinking.
bkout - there is no
Posted by dodgerdog on 12th of Feb 2009 at 06:34 pm
bkout - there is no conflict when stating a triangle break with support below - those are facts and support is support until it's NOT. The triangle break provided for some downside movement (nearly 25 SPX points) before reversing at support. Those supports and divergences would have you on alert to take some profits if they are not negated on the breakdown. I even posted today to expect a boucne just before the rally unfolded. You have to accept what the market if giving at this time or else look longer term with wider stops. Quite simply, this is not an easy market to trade so you have to be focused and have a plan tailored to your own trading objectives and risk tolerances.
great response dodger! Technical analysis
Posted by matt on 12th of Feb 2009 at 10:10 pm
great response dodger! Technical analysis works and that triangle did give 25 SPX points to the downside so one could have tightened up stops if short. Or if you shorted at higher levels, you could stay short, it's your choice.
All day long I posted the bull wedge developing on the SPX with the multiple points of positive divergence developing, that was something to take note of. Then of course the market rallies hard on speculation.
The PPT is about and the way the market is trading, it's all traders and it feels manipulated as well. That's why it's still a good idea to take profits in this market, it's a traders market and is manipulated anyway.
Now regarding the comment about the big picture, yes we are in a horrible bear market. I dont' care if the SPX rallies 250 points, it will still be in a bear market!
took profits
Posted by tarzan on 13th of Feb 2009 at 12:01 am
matt/steve
I took profits just as the news broke but my decision was based on matt and steves comments on relentlessly taking profits in this screwed up market. also checking the blogs regularly and the dynamic links are key. that wedge matt put up w/pos divergence really convinced me to be on the lookout. thanks matt. for me and my clients!!!!
Great Point Dodger ... That's
Posted by cspirit on 12th of Feb 2009 at 08:42 pm
Great Point Dodger ... That's why I'm staying in cash. This is a "Run the Stops Only" IMHO market currently. It's not trending therefore unless you can watch it every hour (Which I cannot next couple weeks) staying on the sidelines.
i find it more helpful
Posted by dowjones4k on 12th of Feb 2009 at 06:00 pm
i find it more helpful to look at the morning charts formulate my own thoughts first then listen to their commentary - which lately i totally ignore.
i do not play any current month options and set my goals more to long term thinking on the downside as i believe this is a depression we heading into.
i have studied the 1929 charts a lot and formulate my strategy around that. i have done this since November 20. i have bought double short funds and sold calls untill lately as i believe we are ready for a big move. i have found this has cut out my whipsaws.