Highway to the Banana Zone
Ride into the Banana Zone
Should be fun trading Wednesday and on from there for
probably at least a week after that. Market historically
loses its shit on a 50 or more cut to start the cycle....but
comparing this market to anything historical is tough due to the
nutty circumstances with fiscal policy (banana zone policy) as we
enter the easing cycle. I'm not aware that there are any historical
comparisons that fit well enough to make plausible predictions.
So, I'm essentially buying short term straddles expiring a
week out (offset a bit...so not exactly straddles) and planning to
take profits on the 1st big move Wednesday afternoon almost
immediately and then let the other side ride for free. I'm looking
for a single if the move continues in the initial direction, but
potential home run if we get a big headfake...in either direction.
I'll admit, I will be absolutely shocked if there isn't a big
headfake between Wednesday at 1:45 and the close on Thursday...I
just am not convinced on the direction. Banana zone theory suggests
we go lower initially and then crash higher...but I didn't trade
Argentina in 2017 and have no real experience with this, so who
knows.
I'm pretty sure the Fed leaked the 50 hint just to ensure a more
positive reaction to 25 - as in, oh, they only did 25 so there's
nothing really bad happening behind the scenes to worry about, game
on...but we'll see.
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Index under tension Beggin' you to
Posted by bthefnd on 16th of Sep 2024 at 03:31 pm
Index under tension
Beggin' you to trap and go
Highway to the Banana Zone
Ride into the Banana Zone
Should be fun trading Wednesday and on from there for probably at least a week after that. Market historically loses its shit on a 50 or more cut to start the cycle....but comparing this market to anything historical is tough due to the nutty circumstances with fiscal policy (banana zone policy) as we enter the easing cycle. I'm not aware that there are any historical comparisons that fit well enough to make plausible predictions. So, I'm essentially buying short term straddles expiring a week out (offset a bit...so not exactly straddles) and planning to take profits on the 1st big move Wednesday afternoon almost immediately and then let the other side ride for free. I'm looking for a single if the move continues in the initial direction, but potential home run if we get a big headfake...in either direction.
I'll admit, I will be absolutely shocked if there isn't a big headfake between Wednesday at 1:45 and the close on Thursday...I just am not convinced on the direction. Banana zone theory suggests we go lower initially and then crash higher...but I didn't trade Argentina in 2017 and have no real experience with this, so who knows.
I'm pretty sure the Fed
Posted by bthefnd on 16th of Sep 2024 at 04:05 pm
I'm pretty sure the Fed leaked the 50 hint just to ensure a more positive reaction to 25 - as in, oh, they only did 25 so there's nothing really bad happening behind the scenes to worry about, game on...but we'll see.