Market is just as confused as the Fed. I have a hard time
believing, as a whole, the market isn't capable of basic math that
shows the real economy (ex the 4% excess Gov stimulus) has been and
continues to be in a fairly deep contraction (the move towards 50
all but confirms this). However, asset prices obviously have
a hard time going down with currency being diluted / debased at
this rate. It's really an economic horror show if you're a Fed
official...especially since they can't say a negative word about
where the fault lies (with the treasury, executive and legislative
branch). The Fed doesn't want asset prices to rise rapidly
while the real economy contracts. That's a recipe for social
disaster...which we are speeding towards rapidly, mostly under the
guise of compassion.
The confusing part continues to be that asset prices rise
while the economy weakens. It's just reflexive for everyone
to want to sell, but they are forgetting the dilution aspect that
is dominating the equation.
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Odds have now shifted to
Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2024 at 09:53 am
Odds have now shifted to a 50 basis point cut
Market is just as confused
Posted by bthefnd on 16th of Sep 2024 at 11:17 am
Market is just as confused as the Fed. I have a hard time believing, as a whole, the market isn't capable of basic math that shows the real economy (ex the 4% excess Gov stimulus) has been and continues to be in a fairly deep contraction (the move towards 50 all but confirms this). However, asset prices obviously have a hard time going down with currency being diluted / debased at this rate. It's really an economic horror show if you're a Fed official...especially since they can't say a negative word about where the fault lies (with the treasury, executive and legislative branch). The Fed doesn't want asset prices to rise rapidly while the real economy contracts. That's a recipe for social disaster...which we are speeding towards rapidly, mostly under the guise of compassion.
The confusing part continues to be that asset prices rise while the economy weakens. It's just reflexive for everyone to want to sell, but they are forgetting the dilution aspect that is dominating the equation.