Nice commentary and I agree JP has once again pickled himself.
Can you explain why crashing the dollar is a good choice? Does it
continue the liquidity squeeze to SPX 6-7-8000 in the final Wave 5
blowoff top to give cover to his obvious candidate of choice? Or
will any confirmation by him spook the market because once again
the Fed is late and recession is already here (although the lagging
stats aren't confirming...yet) As king for a friend :)
BTW I thought the -750 dip this week was weird but these
positive gamma short squeezes are bs! Investing has been replaced
by casino craps and really gets old! Even though I actually did a
few of the system trades and made $$$ (Thanks, Matt!!!!) and
finally got out of PCT trade from a few months ago -- the V moves
are so manipulated that nothing seems 'real' anymore. Without BPT
I'd probably just still be 50% TBill and 50% RSP.
Long story short - dollar strength (over a certain level) has
been a consistent sign of dysfunction in the global economy in the
era of globalization. I love a strong dollar as a traveling
American, but I also get that if you crush your trading partners a
global recession will eventually come back to bite us all (I'm
definitely not saying I agree with the approach - only that I
understand it...to the extent a non phd economist can understand
it).
Agree about casino. I find it a bit gross and obscene to profit
off stealing from the middle class and poor like this, but at least
it's predictable these days. I was buying almost zero cost spreads
near the bottom that have absolutely exploded. For example, I
had a bunch of
SEP 18 5600 (+1)
OCT 4 5700 (-1)
OCT 4 5800 (+1)
They absolutely exploded higher this week.
I had the same setup going to the downside. Because I had
most setup as nearly zero cost and a credit in some cases, I lost
very little on the downside put protection, but I could sleep
knowing I was good if we opened up down 150 SPX points (or more).
This trade required massive movement in a short time to work.
But that's what we've been getting, so it was a no brainer to put
it on in size.
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Nice commentary and I agree
SPY 5m - H&S setting up. Given the amount of ...
Posted by profmel on 13th of Sep 2024 at 01:52 pm
Nice commentary and I agree JP has once again pickled himself. Can you explain why crashing the dollar is a good choice? Does it continue the liquidity squeeze to SPX 6-7-8000 in the final Wave 5 blowoff top to give cover to his obvious candidate of choice? Or will any confirmation by him spook the market because once again the Fed is late and recession is already here (although the lagging stats aren't confirming...yet) As king for a friend :)
BTW I thought the -750 dip this week was weird but these positive gamma short squeezes are bs! Investing has been replaced by casino craps and really gets old! Even though I actually did a few of the system trades and made $$$ (Thanks, Matt!!!!) and finally got out of PCT trade from a few months ago -- the V moves are so manipulated that nothing seems 'real' anymore. Without BPT I'd probably just still be 50% TBill and 50% RSP.
Long story short - dollar
Posted by bthefnd on 13th of Sep 2024 at 01:58 pm
Long story short - dollar strength (over a certain level) has been a consistent sign of dysfunction in the global economy in the era of globalization. I love a strong dollar as a traveling American, but I also get that if you crush your trading partners a global recession will eventually come back to bite us all (I'm definitely not saying I agree with the approach - only that I understand it...to the extent a non phd economist can understand it).
Agree about casino. I find
Posted by bthefnd on 13th of Sep 2024 at 02:05 pm
Agree about casino. I find it a bit gross and obscene to profit off stealing from the middle class and poor like this, but at least it's predictable these days. I was buying almost zero cost spreads near the bottom that have absolutely exploded. For example, I had a bunch of
SEP 18 5600 (+1)
OCT 4 5700 (-1)
OCT 4 5800 (+1)
They absolutely exploded higher this week.
I had the same setup going to the downside. Because I had most setup as nearly zero cost and a credit in some cases, I lost very little on the downside put protection, but I could sleep knowing I was good if we opened up down 150 SPX points (or more).
This trade required massive movement in a short time to work. But that's what we've been getting, so it was a no brainer to put it on in size.