These V bottoms are just the result of unemotional math (so
yeah, AI would fit the bill). We have been and will be in a
recession with Gov spending backed out - it would be severe at this
point, but Gov spending is not backed out and won't be backed out
so we do not enter a recession on paper. Asset prices go up
broadly because of currency debasement - that's just what asset
prices do (almost all go up during debasement, not just the ones
accruing value, which is a short list). There are many
academic papers that discuss when you enter the diminishing return
phases of debt fueled stimulus and we're WELL PAST the line (I
think around 70% of debt to GDP) where countries get a better than
1:1 return on debt. We're now quite negative return on
stimulus and accelerating.
Simple way to look at it: if the Gov is injecting 6% of GDP per
year and the Atlanta Fed is projecting 2.5% total GDP this year,
is the non Gov economy in a recession or not?
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These V bottoms are just
Friend of mine pointed out that next week (historically) is ...
Posted by bthefnd on 13th of Sep 2024 at 12:16 pm
These V bottoms are just the result of unemotional math (so yeah, AI would fit the bill). We have been and will be in a recession with Gov spending backed out - it would be severe at this point, but Gov spending is not backed out and won't be backed out so we do not enter a recession on paper. Asset prices go up broadly because of currency debasement - that's just what asset prices do (almost all go up during debasement, not just the ones accruing value, which is a short list). There are many academic papers that discuss when you enter the diminishing return phases of debt fueled stimulus and we're WELL PAST the line (I think around 70% of debt to GDP) where countries get a better than 1:1 return on debt. We're now quite negative return on stimulus and accelerating.
Simple way to look at
Posted by bthefnd on 13th of Sep 2024 at 12:23 pm
Simple way to look at it: if the Gov is injecting 6% of GDP per year and the Atlanta Fed is projecting 2.5% total GDP this year, is the non Gov economy in a recession or not?