Except that one year where they printed and spent 6% of GDP in
excess of revenues (currency debasement) for multiple years, while
the economy was very hot. Oh wait, that's never happened
before now. Banana Zone seems more likely, but, either way,
it's hard to make historical comparisons when conditions don't
match well (which is why we keep getting V bottoms - people
thinking it's the same as before when it's not).
These V bottoms are just the result of unemotional math (so
yeah, AI would fit the bill). We have been and will be in a
recession with Gov spending backed out - it would be severe at this
point, but Gov spending is not backed out and won't be backed out
so we do not enter a recession on paper. Asset prices go up
broadly because of currency debasement - that's just what asset
prices do (almost all go up during debasement, not just the ones
accruing value, which is a short list). There are many
academic papers that discuss when you enter the diminishing return
phases of debt fueled stimulus and we're WELL PAST the line (I
think around 70% of debt to GDP) where countries get a better than
1:1 return on debt. We're now quite negative return on
stimulus and accelerating.
Simple way to look at it: if the Gov is injecting 6% of GDP per
year and the Atlanta Fed is projecting 2.5% total GDP this year,
is the non Gov economy in a recession or not?
Except that one year where
Friend of mine pointed out that next week (historically) is ...
Posted by bthefnd on 13th of Sep 2024 at 12:00 pm
Except that one year where they printed and spent 6% of GDP in excess of revenues (currency debasement) for multiple years, while the economy was very hot. Oh wait, that's never happened before now. Banana Zone seems more likely, but, either way, it's hard to make historical comparisons when conditions don't match well (which is why we keep getting V bottoms - people thinking it's the same as before when it's not).
I think V bottoms are
Posted by srusso1 on 13th of Sep 2024 at 12:05 pm
I think V bottoms are A result of AI computer trading no emotions just trades till not.
These V bottoms are just
Posted by bthefnd on 13th of Sep 2024 at 12:16 pm
These V bottoms are just the result of unemotional math (so yeah, AI would fit the bill). We have been and will be in a recession with Gov spending backed out - it would be severe at this point, but Gov spending is not backed out and won't be backed out so we do not enter a recession on paper. Asset prices go up broadly because of currency debasement - that's just what asset prices do (almost all go up during debasement, not just the ones accruing value, which is a short list). There are many academic papers that discuss when you enter the diminishing return phases of debt fueled stimulus and we're WELL PAST the line (I think around 70% of debt to GDP) where countries get a better than 1:1 return on debt. We're now quite negative return on stimulus and accelerating.
Simple way to look at
Posted by bthefnd on 13th of Sep 2024 at 12:23 pm
Simple way to look at it: if the Gov is injecting 6% of GDP per year and the Atlanta Fed is projecting 2.5% total GDP this year, is the non Gov economy in a recession or not?
Yep - point taken and
Posted by steve on 13th of Sep 2024 at 12:03 pm
Yep - point taken and riding this W3 here