Looks increasingly likely that the Fed is going to start an
easing cycle next Wednesday at all time highs in the equity
indexes, firm to slightly rising inflation (if you believe Gov
data), and 6 weeks out from a major election. The press conference
commentary should be interesting! The ultra wealthy are
essentially demanding either 50 basis points or super dovish speak
to go with 25. They will probably get what they demand (super
dove speak from Jerome - 50 is off the table).
Nice candle. Maybe everyone realizing the above at about the
same time and deciding to ease up a bit on the squeeze until we
actually get the juice?
Posted by mastermind on 12th of Sep 2024 at 02:54 pm
The market and the election are not factors that they are to
consider when making their interest rate decisions. The dual
mandate involves inflation and employment. If they were to defer
their decision because the election is coming, that in itself would
be a political move.
Hard to argue with this standard CNBC talking point in today's
world (don't want to get cancelled). But not everyone has the
same opinion about Fed independence and their impartial, non
partisan, god like approach. The vast majority of their
employees are registered in the same party. I believe it's over 70%
and the rest are registered as independents and a very small, less
than 10%, are registered with the GOP (there are actual peer
reviewed studies on this topic available online....I'm guessing
based on reading many months ago...please fact check me). But maybe
this particular herd of PhD's is so amazingly intelligent and
devoted to their craft and their duty to impartiality that they
avoid any alignment with their strongly held beliefs in their
personal political lives? You never know.
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Looks increasingly likely that the
Posted by bthefnd on 12th of Sep 2024 at 02:49 pm
Looks increasingly likely that the Fed is going to start an easing cycle next Wednesday at all time highs in the equity indexes, firm to slightly rising inflation (if you believe Gov data), and 6 weeks out from a major election. The press conference commentary should be interesting! The ultra wealthy are essentially demanding either 50 basis points or super dovish speak to go with 25. They will probably get what they demand (super dove speak from Jerome - 50 is off the table).
Nice candle. Maybe everyone realizing the above at about the same time and deciding to ease up a bit on the squeeze until we actually get the juice?
The market and the election
Posted by mastermind on 12th of Sep 2024 at 02:54 pm
The market and the election are not factors that they are to consider when making their interest rate decisions. The dual mandate involves inflation and employment. If they were to defer their decision because the election is coming, that in itself would be a political move.
Hard to argue with this
Posted by bthefnd on 12th of Sep 2024 at 03:02 pm
Hard to argue with this standard CNBC talking point in today's world (don't want to get cancelled). But not everyone has the same opinion about Fed independence and their impartial, non partisan, god like approach. The vast majority of their employees are registered in the same party. I believe it's over 70% and the rest are registered as independents and a very small, less than 10%, are registered with the GOP (there are actual peer reviewed studies on this topic available online....I'm guessing based on reading many months ago...please fact check me). But maybe this particular herd of PhD's is so amazingly intelligent and devoted to their craft and their duty to impartiality that they avoid any alignment with their strongly held beliefs in their personal political lives? You never know.