After that 4.1% sticky CPI at 10:30 today, I think market would
explode higher on a hot PPI tomorrow (Hot, but not too hot). Inline
probably ok, but anything weak and we might give up today's gains.
KRE not at all happy about the market pricing 50 bps down to 15%
after today's print, but that could explode higher with a weak PPI
(weak PPI was the canary in the coal mine with China). By the time
the market figures out that a refinancing cliff is approaching
quickly and we need to allow some hyperinflation if we want to
survive it, we could be at 5700 or higher.
Hot PPI would probably also invert the 10/2 yield curve
again. Nice move in that direction today as bonds get
sold.
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After that 4.1% sticky CPI
Posted by bthefnd on 11th of Sep 2024 at 03:12 pm
After that 4.1% sticky CPI at 10:30 today, I think market would explode higher on a hot PPI tomorrow (Hot, but not too hot). Inline probably ok, but anything weak and we might give up today's gains. KRE not at all happy about the market pricing 50 bps down to 15% after today's print, but that could explode higher with a weak PPI (weak PPI was the canary in the coal mine with China). By the time the market figures out that a refinancing cliff is approaching quickly and we need to allow some hyperinflation if we want to survive it, we could be at 5700 or higher.
Hot PPI would probably also invert the 10/2 yield curve again. Nice move in that direction today as bonds get sold.