Definitely. This is a very confusing time in history to be
analyzing markets. Financial assets (equities, bonds, etc)
can't help but rise nominally with the entire world monetizing
their debt (with a few exceptions, e.g. China). Company values
haven't really risen but share prices have across the board and
it's hard not to keep going (if price is going up and value is flat
or going down, you get multiple expansion...which is what we've
seen over the last couple of years and what should be expected when
currencies are losing their value). But that doesn't hold as true
for commodities. Their prices are based much more on supply and
demand. So, what to do with an equity being inflated by debasing
currency but still mainly tracks a commodity (or a basket of
commodities)? It's not an easy call - have to mix the ideas
of the currency it's priced in along with the commodities it
tracks.
Yep. And zoom out to daily and draw some lines. Plus wave 5 with
MACD divergence and H&S target achieved. No trigger yet.
Hard not to listen to recession talk (wich would take FCX
down), but I have a feeling if I asked AI "is it possible for asset
prices to fall a lot with the current rate of money printing?"
it might reply something like "Are there winters on the
sun?"
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Fcx wedge ? with divergences
Posted by raymuy on 10th of Sep 2024 at 12:46 pm
Fcx wedge ? with divergences
One possible concern is CPER
Posted by rbreese on 10th of Sep 2024 at 01:40 pm
One possible concern is CPER acting poorly for FCX.
Definitely. This is a very
Posted by bthefnd on 10th of Sep 2024 at 02:05 pm
Definitely. This is a very confusing time in history to be analyzing markets. Financial assets (equities, bonds, etc) can't help but rise nominally with the entire world monetizing their debt (with a few exceptions, e.g. China). Company values haven't really risen but share prices have across the board and it's hard not to keep going (if price is going up and value is flat or going down, you get multiple expansion...which is what we've seen over the last couple of years and what should be expected when currencies are losing their value). But that doesn't hold as true for commodities. Their prices are based much more on supply and demand. So, what to do with an equity being inflated by debasing currency but still mainly tracks a commodity (or a basket of commodities)? It's not an easy call - have to mix the ideas of the currency it's priced in along with the commodities it tracks.
Yep. And zoom out to
Posted by bthefnd on 10th of Sep 2024 at 01:12 pm
Yep. And zoom out to daily and draw some lines. Plus wave 5 with MACD divergence and H&S target achieved. No trigger yet.
Hard not to listen to recession talk (wich would take FCX down), but I have a feeling if I asked AI "is it possible for asset prices to fall a lot with the current rate of money printing?" it might reply something like "Are there winters on the sun?"